Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Picks, Preview & Odds -- 11/21/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Packers -2.5
BetMGM: Packers -2.5
Caesars: Packers -2

Season record
Packers: 8-2 (1st place, NFC North)
Vikings: 4-5 (2nd place, NFC North)

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Packers - Vikings preview and analysis

Last week
Packers: won 17-0 vs. Seahawks
Vikings: won 27-20 at Chargers

Aaron Rodgers is back, and so maybe the Green Bay Packers as the top team in the NFC.

The Packers already have a comfortable lead in the NFC North. Next up is to gain some separation from the rest of the pack (get it?) in the conference.

Green Bay will travel to Minneapolis on Sunday for a divisional showdown against the Minnesota Vikings after what could arguably be their second most impressive win this season.

After getting Rodgers back from COVID-19 protocol, the Packers shut out the Seattle Seahawks 17-0 at home and held a Russell Wilson-led Seahawks team to zero points for the first time ever. Rodgers passed for 292 yards and running back AJ Dillon had a season-best 128 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns to pace a Green Bay offense that had to fight through the snow.

"Good to be back with the guys, good to be back at home, good to be on the field, really," Rodgers said via Zoom, allowing him to be unmasked without violating league protocols. "The most emotions from the whole night was probably walking off the field after the game. It definitely got me a little misty."

Rodgers, due to testing positive and then all the hoopla surrounding his “immunized” comment, did not play in Green Bay’s 13-7 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Green Bay defense showed that it is turning a corner over the past couple of weeks after what it did to Patrick Mahomes, and now Wilson.

Wilson threw it 40 times for 161 yards and two interceptions, while the Seattle running game never got going for 75 yards on 16 combined carries. Alex Collins led the way with 10 carries for 41 yards, but with the Seahawks playing from behind for most of the night, there was no rhythm to the offense. Green Bay sacked Wilson three times.

"There's always going to be criticism in this world," Rodgers said. "I don't define myself by the criticism, but I understand it's a part of this because this issue is definitely polarizing.

"I felt pretty good for the most part. I feel like I played fairly solid. Obviously I had the one bad decision in the red zone and probably missed a couple of throws."

Nevertheless, the Packers are 8-2 and are the top team in the NFC holding the tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals and having played one more game than the Dallas Cowboys.

The Vikings, despite being 4-5, have an offense that will test Green Bay. Say what you will about the inconsistencies involving Minnesota over the past month, but there always seems to be a way for Kirk Cousins to make things happen in the most oblong of ways.

Case in point: Minnesota went on the road to SoFI Stadium and defeated the suddenly-struggling Los Angeles Chargers to end its two-game losing streak. Cousins threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns while Dalvin Cook had one of his better games with 94 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

"I told the team it takes a lot of courage to fight through adversity when everybody's shooting arrows at you," Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said. "They came here to work and they fought like crazy all week, like they always have, and it finally paid off."

Playing the ‘what if’ game is fun in the NFL, and the same goes for the Vikings. They’d be a 6-3 team had they not choked against a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team and not blown a lead in an overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Minnesota is a half game out of the final wild card spot currently occupied by the Carolina Panthers with eight games to go.

There’s plenty of time for the Vikings to right the ship and make a run, but it has to start in a tough game against the red-hot Packers.


There’s a good chance we could be seeing a low-scoring game yet again. The under has cashed in eight of Green Bay’s 10 games and is 6-1 when the Packers are favored. This would normally favor the home team, but the last time Rodgers played in U.S. Bank Stadium, he threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns. Since 2020, Rodgers has 28 touchdowns and no interceptions against division opponents. No reason to suspect that trend doesn’t continue. Packers by 10

Betting trends

The Packers are 15-7 ATS in road games over the past three seasons.

The under is 8-2 in Green Bay’s games this season.

The Vikings are 37-20 ATS as a home dog since 1992.

The Vikings are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 home games, while 11-9 straight up.

Players to watch

Packers: Rashan Gary had a sack last week to give him a career-high 5.5 to lead the Packers’ defense.

Vikings: Eric Kendricks had eight tackles, a sack and an interception last week’s matchup against the Chargers.

Statistical leaders

Passing: Aaron Rodgers -- 2,186 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: AJ Dillon -- 421 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Davante Adams -- 864 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Rashan Gary -- 5.5 sacks

Passing: Kirk Cousins -- 2,434 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Dalvin Cook -- 648 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Justin Jefferson -- 775 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Everson Griffen -- 5 sacks

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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