by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 04, 2021
Game time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chiefs -7.5
BetMGM: Chiefs -7
Caesars: Chiefs -7.5
Season record
Packers: 7-1 (1st place, NFC North)
Chiefs: 4-4 (T-3rd place, AFC West)
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Packers - Chiefs preview and analysis
Last week
Packers: won 24-21 at Cardinals on Oct. 28 (Thursday)
Chiefs: won 20-17 vs. Giants (Monday)
Just when you thought things were going perfectly for the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers has to go mess it up.
We’ll leave the dumb decisions off to the side, but the short of it is Rodgers is in COVID-19 protocol and will not play this Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
Young quarterback Jordan Love will get the start. It’s his time. And if there was ever a time to fuel the fire to the narrative of the future beyond Rodgers, why not start Sunday?
The Packers’ first-round pick in 2020 out of Utah State will get his first NFL start for the first-place Packers, who are coming off the biggest win of the season across the league with the 3-point upset over the previously unbeaten Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night.
Green Bay already went through one week without a big-time player with Davante Adams missing last week due to COVID protocol. Adams will return to the lineup for this weekend’s matchup to at least put some sort of boost for the underdog Packers.
Love made an appearance in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints, but that was when Green Bay was down by five touchdowns. Him getting his first chance, and the potential to run with it, makes the Packers an enticing choice.
And honestly, what better team to get that chance against than a reeling Kansas City team that’s no longer just bad on defense. The offensive side of the ball has gone kaput as of late because quarterback Patrick Mahomes is an interception machine.
Mahomes has 10 interceptions after throwing one on Monday against the New York Giants, but the Chiefs held on -- yes, held on against the Giants -- to win by three in what might have been one of the worst Monday Night Football games we’ve seen this millennium.
Mahomes threw for 275 yards, and Travis Kelce was held to four receptions for 27 yards in what continues to be just an abysmal run for his high-powered offense. Running back Darrel Williams continues to be a bright spot with 110 scrimmage yards last week, but it’s clear the Chiefs need their MVP to be just that as the season progresses.
Prediction
This was the popular Super Bowl pick before the season, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case. The Chiefs don’t look like Super Bowl contenders and if they don’t put a good showing against this Packers’ offense without Rodgers, things are going to go sour real quick.
The Chiefs will win this game, but the Packers will play strong for Love and keep this game close enough for Green Bay to cover. Kansas City also can’t afford to fall further behind the Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC West standings. Chiefs by 4
Betting trends
The Packers are 14-7 ATS on the road in their past 21.
The Packers are 5-0 ATS this season following two straight games with a +1 turnover margin or better.
The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS following a win this season.
Players to watch
Packers: Aaron Jones tied a career-high with seven receptions last week and 110 yards from scrimmage against the Cardinals. A reminder he’s just as dangerous catching out of the backfield.
Chiefs: The process of turning Mecole Hardman into a serious No. 2 might be underway in Kansas City. He had five receptions for 63 yards against the Giants.
Statistical leaders
Packers:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers -- 1,894 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Aaron Jones -- 463 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Davante Adams -- 744 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Rashan Gary -- 3.5 sacks
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes -- 2,368 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Darrel Williams -- 230 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 735 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Tyrann Mathieu -- 2 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
