by James Q
Tuesday, Oct 12, 2021Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Preview and Picks - 10/14/2021
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 17th, 2021
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks
Circa: Point Spread: Packers -4.5; : O/U 45
Caesars: Spread: Packers -4.5; : O/U 45
BetMGM: Spread: Packers -4.5; : O/U 45
Season Record
Packers: 4-1 (NFC North)
Bears: 3-2 (NFC North)
For months now we have heard that the Chicago Bears are terrible. We have heard that the Chicago Bears can’t get the coach or quarterback or GM right. Going into week six in the NFL the Chicago Bears have a winning record. They are in the middle of a 2 game-winning streak. Rookie QB Justin Fields is getting better or playing better depending on how you look at the transition to the NFL. The Bears Defense is real, and it has been for a few years now. Mitchell Trubisky is gone… should he have been? I have heard that asked. Is this a team that can win if any quarterback is given time to make passes and sustain drives? Is this a team that can beat any matchup? Yes. No. No. The Bears are surviving the way any team does… some teams aren’t as good, some teams are better.
The Green Bay Packers are better. Don’t worry about the Bears odds or the payday on the moneyline. The Packers have game show host wannabe Aaron Rodgers… and he is a great NFL quarterback. GB Packers fans can ignore the Chi Bears and Bears fans can ignore the playoffs. The Packers will roll the Bears and history will add another win to that column of the historical cold weather rivalry.
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Packers vs Bears Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
We have gone over it again and again but the Packers opened the season with a big, embarrassing loss to the New Orleans Saints 38-3. Aaron Rodgers had an awful game that was only duplicated in the nightmares of Jordan Love. That game aside, they have now won 4 straight. They beat the Detroit Lions 35-17, the San Francisco 49ers 30-28, the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17, and the Cincinnati Bengals 25-22. This cold weather Pack is full of winners. Aaron is entitled to a bad game to remind the GM that he should be throwing to CeeDee Lamb instead of explaining how to beat Cover Two to Jordan Love.
The Chicago Bears started the season with a loss to the exciting and maybe great Los Angeles Rams 34-14. They had a veteran quarterback at the helm while rookie Justin Fields held down the bench. In Game 2 that veteran got hurt and they lost to the Bengals 20-17. In game 3 rookie Justin Fields got his first full game shot and was sacked 9 times and the Bears lost to the Cleveland Browns 26-6. In game 4 Justin Fields got his bearings and improved his passer rating during a win over the Detroit Lions 24-14. In game 5 the Bears beat the Las Vegas Raiders 20-9, while the Raiders were still coached by a racist, homophobic, misogynistic, phony.
Offensive Analysis
The Regular season Green Bay Packers are currently ranked 22nd on offense. They score 24 points per game on 347.6 yards per game. It’s regular season because it will take until the playoffs for the stats to accurately reflect the team. That first game killed the numbers for a long while.
The Chicago Bears are ranked last in offense in the NFL. Below the Jets, Below the Giants, Below the Texans. Why?... their wins were against the Lions, the Bengals and the phony coached Raiders. They are scoring 16.8 points per game on 240 yards per game. They can only go up from last place. They won't against the Packers.
Defensive Analysis
The Green Bay Packers have the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL… they will go to 2nd if not 1st after this game. They give up 24.4 points per game. The front office of the Packers have ignored Aaron Rodgers' needs for years in order to shore up the defense. Did they miss Super Bowls?.. Yes. Did they fall to Tom Brady when they didn’t need to?... Yes. Did Aaron learn to keep the team he has always and only played for in the NFL at arm’s length?.. Yes. Did they build a great defense?… Totally!!!
The Chicago Bears are the top ranked defense in the NFL. It is entirely the reason that Coach Matt Nagy and the wobbly offense can point to a winning record. A few years ago they traded for LB Khalil Mack and it has worked. The defense has depth, it has real players, and it has a game-winner mentality. They give up 20 points per game on which gives them a chance when the offense only scores 16.8 points per game. They are about to lose the top defense standing to the Cardinals because the packers will outscore the wobbly offense.
Packers vs Bears Prediction
Our prediction for Sunday, October 17th is… Packers 28 - Bears 17
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NFL Betting Trends
The Packers are 4-1 ATS this season.
The Packers are 4-1 as a road favorite of 3.5 - 7 pts, the last 3 seasons.
The Packers are 9-4 ATS against conference opponents, the last 3 seasons.
The Bears are 24-11 ATS as a home underdog 0f 3.5 - 7 pts since 1993.
The Bears are 5-11 ATS against teams with a winning record, the last 3 seasons.
Key Injuries
Packers: CB Kevin King (shoulder) Quest * LB Jaylon Smith (acquired) Quest
Bears: LB Jeremiah Attaochu (pec) Out * T Germain Ifedi (knee) Quest
Starting Lineups
Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR DeVonte Adams, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, LT Elgton Jenkins, LG Jon Runyon, C Josh Meyers, RG Royce Newman, RT Billy Turner
Bears: QB Justin Fields, RB Damien Williams, WR Allen Robinson II, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE Cole Kmet, LT Jason Peters, LG Cody Whitehair, C Sam Mustipher, RG James Daniels, RT Germain Ifedi
Statistical Leaders
Packers
Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers 1,241
Rushing Yards: Aaron Jones 309
Receiving Yards: Davante Adams 579
Tackles: De’Vondre Campbell 48
Interceptions: De’Vondre Campbell 2
Bears
Passing Yards: Justin Fields 458
Rushing Yards: David Montgomery 309
Receiving yards: Darnell Mooney 261
Tackles: Roquan Smith 50
Interceptions: D Houston-Carson 1
Weather Forecast
Sunny. 65* as the high. Humidity 46%. Chicago is cold and it will get much colder. Soldier Filed catches the wind off the lake at 13 mph.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
