Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/06/2025

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Warriors +6.5, Timberwolves -6.5; Over/Under:  207.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Warriors +7, Timberwolves -7; Over/Under:  208.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Warriors +6.5, Timberwolves -6.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Golden State Warriors:  48-34 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  49-33 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Golden State Warriors:  6-4 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  8-2 last 10

The Warriors are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Houston Rockets. Buddy Hield led the team in points in that game with 33 while Stephen Curry was next on the team with 22 points. Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry each led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Stephen Curry led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47.6% from the field, 41.9% from 3-point range, and 77.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.5 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 44-43-3 this season and their O/U record is 45-45.

The Timberwolves are entering the playoffs with a 49-33 record overall this season and they were 25-16 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Los Angeles Lakers 3 times in a row. Rudy Gobert led the team in points in that game with 27 while Julius Randle was next on the team with 23 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Rudy Gobert led the team in rebounds with 24. They were 40.4% from the field, 14.9% from 3-point range, and 72.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.3 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 43-43-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-41.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 6th seeded Timberwolves and the 7th seeded Warriors from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. Both of these teams are coming off a series win in the last round as lower seeds, but the Timberwolves had an easier time in their series. The Timberwolves kicked the Lakers out in the last round in 5 games, even winning 2 of those games on the road, while the Warriors needed 7 games to kick out the Rockets. The Warriors were the lower seed in that series and didn't have home advantage, but they also stole the 1st game in the series and ended up blowing a 3-1 series lead, needing to win in game 7 on the road. The Timberwolves were in the same situation in the 1st round but they still managed to steal game 1 on the road and end that series in 5 games. They looked like the better team throughout the series too as they are starting to roll now. The Warriors looked good at times in their series, but they were really up and down from game to game. Now they are starting another series on the road here and they are going to be at a disadvantage since the Timberwolves have been off longer and have more rest on their side. The Warriors grinded through the last round but they haven't had a ton of success in the playoffs lately while the Timberwolves went to the Western Conference Final last year and do have some experience of their own to draw on. Look for the Timberwolves to come out strong at home in this 1st game of the series and take advantage of the Warriors who just played a tough 7 game series against good Rockets defense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game. 

Warriors Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, May 6, 2025 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 116 Warriors 107.

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Golden State Warriors: 8-14 ATS in all playoff games. 13-20 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 1-5 1H ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5. 17-9 OVER on the road against Northwest division opponents. 22-15 OVER on the road versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: 71-42 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent. 26-13 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. 48-30 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 9-2 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5. 10-4 OVER at home revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. 

Golden State Warriors:  G. Payton II (SG) Day To Day - Illness.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  R. Dillingham (PG) Day To Day - Ankle.

“We were lucky to get out of this series. That was an incredibly impressive display of resolve.” - Steve Kerr after his team’s win against the Rockets in game 7 of that series on Sunday.

“We didn’t shoot the ball well, but I thought we were the tougher team mentally and physically. That’s when it showed itself. We knew we’d been good in fourth quarters against this team all series. We just needed to see a couple of shots go down opportunistically. Guys did a great job surviving the emotions of the game, which was always going to be a tough game.” - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the LA Lakers in game 5 of that series on Wednesday.

PG Stephen Curry

SG Brandin Podziemski

SF Buddy Hield

PF Jimmy Butler

C Draymond Green

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: S. Curry (24.5)

APG: S. Curry (6)

Reb/G: K. Looney (6.1)

PPG: A. Edwards (27.6)

APG: J. Randle (4.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (10.9)

Coaches:

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (11th season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (5th season)