by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Jan 12, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record
Warriors: 30-10 (2nd place, Western Conference)
Bucks: 26-17 (4th place, Eastern Conference)
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Warriors - Bucks preview, analysis and prediction
Recent form
Warriors: lost three of four; lost 116-108 at Grizzlies on Tuesday
Bucks: lost four of five; lost 103-99 at Hornets on Monday
There’s this want of these two to meet in the NBA Finals for the undisputed, heavyweight championship of the basketball world.
There’s this want of these two to meet in the NBA Finals for the undisputed, heavyweight championship of the basketball world.
But in this regular season contest and with both teams in dire need for a win, I like the Golden State Warriors to bounce back against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum.
The Warriors have hit a snag losing three of four; they were held to below 100 points in consecutive games at the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans, but followed that with an inspired performance in Klay Thompson’s return in a win against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but still scored less than 100 points.
Golden State lost 116-108 at the red-hot Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday, an indication that Memphis is on another level while the Warriors ran into a buzzsaw. The Warriors shot 42 percent from the field, notably with Steph Curry going 8 of 21 and scoring a team-high 27 points.
Thompson had 14 points but went 5 of 13 to get there.
"It was just turnovers early in the game, and that gave them a lot of confidence," said Curry, who turned it over three times himself with Golden State totaling 16 for the game.
This is just the times the Warriors live in with a stacked Western Conference. If this group of teams were around when they were winning almost every championship under the sun, it would be harder to point the finger at the Golden State dynasty and ask if it would’ve existed.
But they’re 30-10 for a reason, and it has a lot to do with Curry returning to MVP form. We’ve seen a dip from the greatest 3-point shooter of all time the past six games; he’s only shooting 34 percent from the floor and 29 percent from 3-point range, the worst shooting stretch of his future hall-of-fame career.
Curry didn’t play in the 5-point loss to New Orleans on Jan. 6. He’s scored 28 and 27 points, respectively, in the past two games.
The road doesn’t get easier for the Warriors as they round out this four-game road trip against the Chicago Bulls on Friday and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. They’ll come back for a seven-game homestand once this hoopla is over with.
But the reason why I like the Warriors is that the Bucks will still be without one important piece to the rotation. Jrue Holiday is expected to miss his fourth straight game due to an ankle injury, and the All-Star point guard is the only one that can stay with Curry for 35-40 minutes a night. Not necessarily stop him, but perhaps slow him down.
It helps that Curry has not had the stroke going as of late, so Khris Middleton may need to take the reins while hoping Thompson doesn’t go full God mode yet.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has done all he can during this slide for Milwaukee; he’s averaging 32.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and almost seven assists while shooting 57 percent from the floor in his last five games. Despite those MVP-caliber numbers, the Bucks are 1-4 in that stretch and just came off losing a two-game road set in Charlotte.
Middleton is going to need a huge game to complement Giannis, and while that seems possible at home, the Warriors are in need of a better offensive performance. Curry takes advantage of the lack of Holiday, Thompson continues to find his groove, and things go swimmingly for the top team in the Western Conference. Warriors by 10
Betting trends
The Warriors are 8-10 ATS after playing a road game this season.
The Warriors are 7-2 ATS after a loss this season.
The Bucks are 8-12 ATS at home this season.
The Bucks are 75-17 straight up as a home favorite the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Warriors:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Otto Porter Jr.
C: Kevon Looney
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Otto Porter Jr.
C: Kevon Looney
Bucks:
PG: Donte DiVincenzo
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bobby Portis
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bobby Portis
Key injuries
Warriors: Draymond Green (calf, out), James Wiseman (knee, out)
Bucks: Jrue Holiday (ankle, out), George Hill (COVID, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
