Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Wednesday, March 23rd, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Heat -6; O/U 214.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Heat -6.5; O/U 213.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Heat -6.5; O/U 214.5

Warriors: 47-24, 3rd place Western Conference

Heat: 47-25, 2nd place Eastern Conference

A non-conference NBA matchup between two very big deal teams.  The Golden State Warriors are struggling with injury again as the end of the season is approaching.  The Warriors held the #1 spot in the West until the Phoenix Suns took it from them… then they cruised at #2 for a month or so into 2022.  The injuries and the losses started piling up with Draymond Green going down and Stephen Curry going down when Draymond returned. Memphis reached up from the depths with a handful of youth and a legit future league MVP in Ja Morant and took 2nd place from them. The Warriors feel like they may be spinning out of control… but they are still a recent dynasty with lots of great players to put on the court.  Like  a lot of teams we will be waiting to see if Golden State has healthy key pieces in the Playoffs… and if Coach Steve Kerr can deploy a new look that involves the young guys talking tough minutes from the savvy vets… we can see them as the best basketball team in the league again.  How does that future possibility affect this game and this betting opportunity?... It doesn’t.  The Miami Heat have held tightly onto the #1 spot in the Eastern Conference since they wrestled it away from the Chicago Bulls.  The Eastern Conference is stacked with storylines and a legit shot at 6-8 teams who could rise up and win the entire thing.  The Heat have had to scrap to keep the #1 spot… They have had to rise to the occasion. Like 17 days ago when they beat the Philadelphia 76ers 99-82 in a display of defensive superiority.  However it all hasn’t been roses… Last game the Heat lost to the Philadelphia 76ers who have added SG James Harden 113-106.  James Harden does not care about anyone’s defensive strut. SG Jimmy Butler had his usual great game… Bam Adebayo had his usual great game… but they did not stop a Philly team that rested both Harden AND Embiid. This time of the year creates a lot of head scratching results if you aren’t mindful of the possibility of any group of NBA players being able to beat any other group of NBA players.  You have to stick to the numbers and bet the spread without emotion.

The Golden State Warriors have won only 4 of their last ten games. They have gone 5-5 ATS.  They are not a good betting opportunity at the moment as they are breaking in an offense without Stephen Curry while simultaneously knocking the rust off of future Hall Of Famer PF Draymond Green who just returned from injury.  A disheartening thing happened to the Warriors when C James Wiseman the #2 overall pick of the 2020 draft, who had missed all of this season, attempted to get some run with the Warriors G-League affiliate in an attempt to be ready for the Playoffs… He experienced Swelling in his surgically repaired knee and most likely will again be shut down until next season.  That is a dream killer.  Wiseman was desperately needed to take some pressure off of C Kevon Looney. Looney is undersized and, though valiantly contributing… is just the definition of a barely average NBA Center. The Warriors lost their last game to the San Antonio Spurs… a team that simply does not have as good a roster as Golden State (even with the current injuries).  The Warriors are in a dark tunnel and about to play the #1 team in the East.  Fortunately the Warriors get a warm-up game versus the NBA JV squad the Orlando Magic tonight.  Look for one of the Warriors to get a 50 point game, the Magic hand those out like party favors.

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last ten games.  They have gone 5-5 ATS… but only 1-4 ATS over their last 5 games.  The Heat’s last game was a terrible loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Heat were definitely caught not taking the 76ers WITHOUT Harden and Embiid seriously!  When 76ers PG Tyrese Maxey dropped 28 points and the back-up point guard Shake Milton dropped 20 while filling in for Harden… The Heat’s guards Lowry, Robinson and Herro will have to have a long look in the mirror.  Against the Warriors there will be a similar challenge… Can the Heat take the game seriously when the Guards are Klay Thompson, Gary Payton II and Jordan Poole while PG Stephen Curry is nowhere to be found?  The numbers point to the Heat… but they did in the Philly game as well.

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Golden State is 47-24 on the season, but 35-32-4 ATS.  They have logged 30 Overs, 39 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 18-15 in road games.

The Heat are 47-25 on the season, but 40-31-1 ATS.  They have notched 42 Overs and 30 Unders.  The Heat are 26-9 in home games.

The Golden State Warriors are 13th in scoring with 111.2 ppg, 9th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  They are 5th on defense while allowing 105.2 ppg from opponents.

The Miami Heat are 17th in scoring with 109.5 ppg, 16th in rebounds with 44.3 per game, and 15th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 104.9 a game.

Our prediction for Wednesday, March 23rd is…. Heat 118 - Warriors 112

The Heat will get the win outright.  The point spread will have to tell you how to bet this game.  The one thing to look to is that Kevon Looney does not have the skill to go up against Bam Adebayo so Draymond will have to help out… this will dilute the Warriors' effectiveness.

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Miami is 26-20 ATS versus Golden State since 1996.
Miami is 2-0 ATS versus Golden State at Miami the last 3 seasons.
Both games in Miami have gone Over.

Warriors: PG Steph Curry (foot) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out indefinitely ** SF Andrew Wiggins (knee) Probable ** SG Moses Moody (shoulder) Quest ** PG Gary Payton II (knee) Prob

Heat: SG Victor Oladipo (back) Quest ** SG Gabe Vincent (toe) Quest

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, PG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Duncan Robinson, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Jimmy Butler

Warriors

Points: Stephen Curry 25.5

Assists: Draymond Green 7.1

Rebounds: Draymond Green 7.5

Steals: Gary Payton II 1.4

Blocks: DRaymond Green 1.1

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.3

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.7

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.3

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.7

Blocks: Bam Adebayo 0.8

Warriors: Steve Kerr

Heat: Erik Spoelstra