Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, May 1st, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Memphis, Tennessee  

Where to Watch: ABC

DraftKings:  Warriors -2; O/U 220

Fanduel:  Warriors -2; O/U 220.5

BetMGM: Warriors -1.5; O/U 219.5

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

Grizzlies: 56-26, 2nd place Western Conference

Game one of a Western Conference NBA First round series between the 3rd Seed and 2nd Seed.  There is a heaping amount of mystery.  For instance, why is the 2nd Seed home court team not favored? The Memphis Grizzlies struggled against the Minnesota Timberwolves… but weren’t the Timberwolves announcing how good they were?  Also, didn’t the Golden State Warriors lose a game to the Denver Nuggets?... Does that not count against the spread?. OK so the Grizzlies, who were the better team than the Warriors in the regular season, spent six games trying to eliminate the Minnesota Timberwolves…. Does that mean that the Warriors are likely to jump the Grizzlies to meet the Suns in the conference finals?... or is Vegas playing games with our brains? 

The Golden State Warriors have 9 wins over their last 10 games. They went 8-2 ATS during that stretch.  We all know the old Warriors… Champions, dynasty, Hall of Famers… well they are still there except for the genius NBA player Kevin Durant.  Before you think that missing Kevin Durant means missing a 20+ point a game scorer… you have to remember that this team drafted and developed SG Jordan Polle who is a 20+ point a game scorer.  The Warriors still have PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson and PF Draymond Green…. Those guys only played 11 minutes together this season,. But they are rolling together in the playoffs… add to that triumvirate SF Andrew Wiggins and PF Otto Porter Jr… and they have a squad that can beat anyone.  Their only weakness is at the center position.  It didn;t seem to bother them against the Denver Nuggets whose only strength is at the Center position.

The Memphis Grizzlies have 5 wins over their last ten games including six in the playoffs and 4 in the regular season.  They are 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  The Grizzlies have not been themselves as PG Ja Morant recovered from an injury. They lost at least 2 of 3 they should have won at season’s end.  Sg Desmond Bane has announced himself as a star in this league. A pure CJ McCollum player. 20+ points per game and he defers to the star point guard.  PF Jaren Jackson used to be the 2nd most important or best player… but now may fall to 4th.  The squad is tough and deep.  Vegas has determined that maybe the Warriors have the advantage now that everyone is playing together.  Is Vegas right?  Should we bet against that?... Do we think the Grizzlies will play at the level that got them to 3 games better than the Warriors in the win column all season long? 

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The Warriors are 56-30 on the season, but 44-39-4 ATS.  They have logged 39 Overs, 46 Unders, and 2 Push. They are 23-20 in road games.

The Grizzlies are 60-28 on the season, 55-32-1 ATS.  They have notched 45-42-1 O/U.. They are a dominant 32-12 in home games. 

The Warriors are 15th in points with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8 . On defense they rank 3rd while allowing 109.9 ppg from opponents.

The Grizzlies are 2nd in scoring with 115.6 ppg, 1st in rebounds with 49.2, 5th in AST/To ratio with 2.0.  On defense they rank 12th while allowing 105.5 ppg.

Our prediction for Sunday, May 1st is….. Grizzlies 118 - Warriors 116

Bet on the Grizzlies.  Finally we get to bet on a team that has home court advantage, a better offensive ranking, and a better regular season record…. AND we get to put a couple of points in our pocket!  The Warriors are great but they just beat a team that had literally no one of any excellence outside of one guy… now they face a pure team.  A team that has tons of athleticism from their star down to their 10th guy off the bench.  The Grizzlies have earned the benefit of the doubt in this matchup… we can revise later.  Both teams are good at defense and offensively expolsive… so avoid the Over/Under until we see them play.

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8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER the last 3 seasons.

The Warriors are 8-2 ATS when revenging a double road loss versus any opponent.

Memphis is 15-3 ATS against Pacific Division opponents.

Memphis is 30-12 ATS after playing a road game.

Warriors: SG Andre Igoudala (neck) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out 

Grizzlies: SF Zaiire Williams (knee) Quest ** C Steven Adams ( Covid_+) Out 

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry 

Grizzlies: PF Jaren Jackson Jr, SF Dillon Brooks, C Xavier Tillman, PG Ja Morant, SG Desmond Bane

Warriors: Steve Kerr

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins