Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/04/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Sunday, May 4, 2025

Venue:  Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Warriors +2.5, Rockets -2.5; Over/Under:  203.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Warriors +2.5, Rockets -2.5; Over/Under:  204 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Warriors +2.5, Rockets -2.5; Over/Under:  204.5 points

Golden State Warriors:  48-34 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

Houston Rockets:  52-30 (1st place, Southwest Division)

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Golden State Warriors:  5-5 last 10

Houston Rockets:  4-6 last 10

The Warriors are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Houston Rockets twice in a row. Stephen Curry led the team in points in that game with 29 while Jimmy Butler was next on the team with 27 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Jimmy Butler led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 41.1% from the field, 30.6% from 3-point range, and 81.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.5 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 43-43-3 this season and their O/U record is 45-44.

The Rockets are entering the playoffs with a 52-30 record overall this season and they were 29-12 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Golden State Warriors twice in a row. Fred VanVleet led the team in points in that game with 29 while Alperen Şengün was next on the team with 21 points. Fred VanVleet led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Alperen Şengün led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 44.9% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 71.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 47-40-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-39-2.

The current betting odds have the Rockets listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 7 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Rockets and the 7th seeded Warriors from the Western Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. This series is all tied up 3-3 after the Rockets won game 6 on the road. The Rockets made it a 3-3 series with a 115-107 win over the Warriors in the 6th game of this series and they have now flipped the home advantage back to their side. They gave up the home advantage right away in the 1st game of this series and couldn't get it back when they went on the road for the first 2 road games, but they finally got it back in game 6 and now they have the momentum on their side with 2 wins in a row, going back home with a chance to eliminate the Warriors. The Rockets didn't looked great to start this series, but now they have settled into it and are starting to show why they had the 2nd best record in the West during the regular season. They have also been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this year and they have given the Warriors trouble in the last 2 games now. Their offense has also looked a lot better in that has been a big help in the last 2 games after going down 3-1. The Rockets have been playing 2 games with their backs against the wall now but they continue to find ways to win those games and now all the momentum is on their side as they go back home for this final game. The Warriors definitely have a lot of pressure on the road too with the way they have blown their 3-1 series lead. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game.  

Warriors Rockets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 4, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Rockets 105 Warriors 101.

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Golden State Warriors: 1-4 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5. 7-14 ATS in all playoff games. 14-20 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 28-18 OVER on the road when the line is +3 to -3. 

Houston Rockets: 23-14 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 5-1 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5. 21-14 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 21-14 OVER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season.

Golden State Warriors:  J. Kuminga (PF) Day To Day - Illness.

Houston Rockets:  J. Landale (C) Day To Day - Knee. J. Tate (SF) Out - Ankle.

“We can’t give up a four-point play in a two-point game.” - Draymond Green after their loss against the Rockets in game 6 of this series on Friday.

“It was a mantra going into the series: Play through everything. It’s going to be a physical game. Don’t ask for anything. We want to be physical. So if the refs allow it or that’s how the style of game is played, that favors us more often than not.” - Ime Udoka after his team’s win against the Warriors in game 6 of this series on Friday.

PG Stephen Curry

SG Brandin Podziemski

SF Buddy Hield

PF Jimmy Butler

C Draymond Green

PG Fred VanVleet

SG Jalen Green 

SF Amen Thompson

PF Dillon Brooks

C Alperen Sengun

PPG: S. Curry (24.5)

APG: S. Curry (6)

Reb/G: K. Looney (6.1)

PPG: J. Green (21)

APG: F. VanVleet (5.6)

Reb/G: A. Sengun (10.3)

Coaches:

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (11th season)

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (2nd season)