Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/05/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, March 5, 2026

Venue:  Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  Prime Video

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Warriors +8.5, Rockets -8.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Warriors +8.5, Rockets -8.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Warriors +9.5, Rockets -9.5; Over/Under:  215.5 points

Golden State Warriors:  31-30 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

Houston Rockets:  38-22 (2nd place, Southwest Division)

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Golden State Warriors:  4-6 last 10

Houston Rockets:  7-3 last 10

The Warriors are entering this game with a 31-30 record overall this season and they are 12-17 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers. Brandin Podziemski led the team in points in that game with 22 while Nate Williams was next on the team with 18 points. Draymond Green led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Gui Santos led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 38.7% from the field, 35.4% from 3-point range, and 70.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.1 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 27-34 this season and their O/U record is 36-25.

The Rockets are entering this game with a 38-22 record overall this season and they are 20-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Washington Wizards. Alperen Şengün led the team in points in that game with 32 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 30 points. Reed Sheppard led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Alperen Şengün led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 48.9% from the field, 36% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.4 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 27-33 this season and their O/U record is 26-33-1.

The current betting odds have the Rockets listed as an 85 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rockets have looked really good in their games this season with their 38-22 record overall which has them right near the top of the West. They have looked great on their home court too with their 20-7 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Warriors have looked good in their games this season with their 31-30 record overall which has them right in the middle of the West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 12-17 road record this year. The Warriors have had a lot of trouble in road games this year and lately they haven't looked good either. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have lost 2 games in a row now, blowing a big lead in their last game too. They have also been hovering right above .500 all season, but now they have been dealing with a lot of injuries and haven't looked nearly as good with key starters out. The Rockets have been starting to roll though and they have steadily been one of the best teams in the West all year. They are off a win over the Wizards in their last one and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games too. They have also looked like a different team on their home court this year and they have the talent to take advantage of a banged up Warriors team that has been in a bad funk lately. Look for the Rockets to continue rolling at home against an inferior opponent. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game. 

Warriors Rockets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, March 5, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Rockets 110 Warriors 92.

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Golden State Warriors: 23-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. 27-19 ATS on the road revenging a loss vs opponent. 22-14 ATS on the road versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 8-4 UNDER as a road underdog.

Houston Rockets: 10-17 ATS in home games. 6-11 ATS off a road win. 3-9 ATS after a win by 6 points or less. 9-4 UNDER against Pacific division opponents. 17-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Golden State Warriors:  W. Richard (SG) Day To Day - Ankle. K. Porzingis (C) Day To Day - Illness. S. Curry (PG) Out - Knee. S. Curry (SG) Out - Back. J. Butler III (SF) Out For Season - Knee.

Houston Rockets:  J. Smith Jr. (PF) Out - Ankle. J. Tate (SF) Out - Knee. S. Adams (C) Out For Season - Ankle. F. VanVleet (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“He jammed his shooting wrist, shooting hand, and also hurt his shoulder during the game. But no update. We’ll just see how he’s feeling tomorrow.” - Steve Kerr on the injury to Moses Moody in his team’s loss against the LA Clippers on Monday.

"Just confidence, just confidence. I mean, I've gotta give alot of credit to my teammates. I'm getting alot of catch-and-shoot threes from them. So just, them looking for me and then shooting that thing with confidence." - Reed Sheppard on his performance this season.

PG Brandin Podziemski

SG De'Anthony Melton

SF Moses Moody

PF Gui Santos

C Draymond Green

PG Amen Thompson

SG Tari Eason

SF Kevin Durant

PF Dorian Finney-Smith

C Alperen Sengun

PPG: Stephen Curry (27.2)

APG: Draymond Green (5.2)

Reb/G: Draymond Green (5.6)

PPG: Kevin Durant (26.3)

APG: Alperen Sengun (6.3)

Reb/G: Alperen Sengun (9.2)

Coaches:

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (12th season)

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (3rd season)