Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Sunday, April 24th, 2022 

Venue:   Ball Arena, Denver Colorado

Where to Watch: ABC 

DraftKings:  Spread: Warriors -4; O/U 225

Fanduel:  Spread:  Warriors -4.5; O/U 224.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Warriors -4.5 O/U 224.5

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference,  3-0 PLayoffs

Nuggets: 48-34, 6th place Western Conference, 0-3 Playoffs

An NBA Western Conference first round Playoff series that has mostly already been decided. The Warriors are 3-0 against the undermanned Denver Nuggets… but more importantly 3-0 ATS.  If you check my Warriors game previews you will see that I am also 3-0 ATS in this series.  This series has been a money maker!  Which brings us to YOUR bankroll and betting certainty vs uncertainty.  If you want to make a living off of Gambling you will need to understand that sometimes you throw $500 at a bet (like this series)... and sometimes you throw $100 or even less.  If you have followed the series with 3 consecutive wins?... Why risk your winnings?... Bet smaller on this final game for the sweep!  If you win you have a topper… If you lose you have just a small chunk coming out of your winning already.  The reason I bring this up is that the Warriors have proved themselves to be ready to take Denver down… They have covered a 6 point spread… a 7 point spread… and a 2.5 points spread… The reason the last spread dropped was that the series shifted to Denver home games… the Warriors covered by 5 points.  This potentially last matchup still has Denver at home and the spread has grown to 4 - 4.5 points depending on your betting site.  Logic tells you that the Warriors have covered this amount 3 times in a row!!  The Books are pushing you to bet on the Warriors again… at an amount that they have covered 3 times already!  My sense says take the free money… but don’t risk the bankroll. NBA Playoff history says the Nuggets will give their best season ending punch in this game… while the Warriors will already be looking forward to the next round.  Let’s check the numbers to see if we push or hang.  

The Golden State Warriors are 3-0 in the first round Playoff series with the Nuggets and 3-0 ATS.  They have been a great betting opportunity.  They also are proving that all that waiting for Klay, Steph, and Draymond to get together has paid off.  The result is that 3rd year SG Jordan Poole has developed into a legitimate star. Mr Poole has had 30 points, 29 points, and 27 points in the series.  He is doing great work and finding himself in the record books for first time playoffs. The amazing part of this team is that the BIG THREE in Golden State LOVES it!  They root for Jordan, Cheer him on, and are perfectly comfortable sharing the ball with a 4th star!  Tat formula for awesomeness is almost unheard of… A dynasty is being reborn in the Golden State right before our eyes.  SF Andrew Wiggins has been freed up to play defense and not worry terribly about scoring.  Wiggins had an NBA career all wrong in his mind when he entered the league with the Minnesota Timberwolves.. He took bad shots, he forced action, he committed turnovers… but now on a good team he has learned that his best production comes from using those long arms to block passing lanes and contest shots… if he pours in 16 points like last game Yay!!... If he doesn’t.. He has still made an impact as Curry, Thompson and Poole score all the points.  Next season this team will have a true Center and will be even more dangerous… This season they are marking themselves as a likely Finals candidate.

The Denver Nuggets have former MVP NIkola Jokic… and Jokic is forced to do it all.  He has no clear number 2 guy as both of those: SG Jamal Murray and Pf Michael Porter JR are on the shelf with injury… also they were possibly never that good to begin with.  Jokic leads the Nuggets in Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, and FG%... that is a formula for losing in the Playoffs like I’ve never seen before.  No one else on the team is capable of stepping up.  SG Will Barton is a good NBA player and SF Aaaron Gordon is a mirage that will always let you down.  Jokic, among all the players in the league, is the most in need of a trade demand.  Denver has proven itself unable to build around him and his best years are disappearing into the sands of history. SG/PG Austin Rivers is averaging 30 minutes a game for the Nuggets in this series… that means they have nothing to offer.  Austin Rivers is a nice guy who adds to any team off the bench… but when you have to rely on him… your team is cooked.

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The Warriors are 56-29 on the season, but 44-37-4 ATS.  They have logged 38 Overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 23-19 in road games.

The Nuggets are 48-37 on the season, but 36-48-1 ATS. They have notched 47 Overs, 36 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 23-19 in home games.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.

The Nuggets are 10th in scoring with 112.7 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.1 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 14th while allowing 110.4 ppg from opponents.   

 

Our prediction for Sunday, April 24th is….. Warriors 118 - Nuggets 110

The Warriors will DOUBLE sweep.  They will go 4-0 in the series and 4-0 ATS.  The Nuggets are due for a serious emotional collapse now that it is all over.  How you should bet is Warriors to win and cover… except if you are smartly up over the last 3 you should bet less in order to hedge.  If you are new to betting or to this particular series… Bet big for your last chance on a near sure thing.

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Golden State is 4-1 ATS versus Denver at Denver the last 3 seasons.

3 of 5 games in this series have gone Under.

Denver is 33-18 SU but 24-27 ATS versus Golden State at Denver since 1996.

Warriors: C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Nuggets: SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out ** PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out and most likely done.

Warriors: SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney, SG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson

Nuggets: SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic, SG Will Barton, PG Monte Morris

Statistical Leaders

Warriors: Steve Kerr

Nuggets: Michael Malone