Game Time: 10:10 PM ET, Thursday, March 10th, 2022 

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Spread:  Warriors -2.5; O/U 220.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  NL

BetMGM:  Spread: Warriors -2.5

Warriors: 44-22, 3rd place Western Conference

Nuggets: 39-26, 6th place Western Conference

A quiet night in the NBA brings us a loud Western Conference matchup.  The Western Conference is in a holding pattern.  The #1 Phoenix Suns are missing their two best players but have a big enough lead to go a while before being worried about anything.  The Grizzlies have Ja Morant… which means scoring and forcing wins out of his young roster… but at 8 games back all the Grizzlies could do with that momentum is jump the Warriors in the standings.  Why are the Warriors losing at #3 (formerly #2)... because they are missing PF Draymond Green, who seems to be the key that starts the Warriors engine… Sure, if Will Rarrell could show up and do Jackie Moon for Klay Thompson every game… then the Warriors will have different outcomes… until that happens the Warriors will struggl;e as long as Draymond Green is out.  The Nuggets at #6 have no hope of moving up or being much of a force in the Playoffs.  Why?... They have just one player.  C Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in just about every category in basketball… even for a league MVP that is a bad thing.  It means he has no players of any quality around him.  SG Jamal Murray is out with injury… and PF Michael Porter Jr is out recovering from his 3rd back surgery in 6 years.  Meaning even if MPJ comes back to play… they won’t be getting the same player… ever again.  Sf Aaron Gordoon was simply never the real deal at all.  Gordon was a question mark in Orlando and in 2 seasons with Denver simply has not made a mark that is felt in the win or loss column.  He is a space filler, a very expensive space filler.  This game will be a battle because of who these good teams are missing, not because of who on these good teams are playing.  Let’s look at the numbers and bet on the point spread.

The Golden State Warriors have only won 3 of their last ten games.  They are only 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  They have logged 7 Overs, 2 Unders, and 1 Push. That means they are being badly outscored.  They have losses like 124-116 to the Los Angeles Lakers when they were the favorite… 129-114 loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves when they were the favorite… 119-104 against the Los Angeles Clippers when they were the favorite.  It's all painting a real picture… This Warriors team that stars Stehen Curry and Klay Thompson… this Warriors team that put SF Andrew Wiggins into the all-star game… this team that has the young studs SF Jonathan Kuminga and SG Jordan Poole coming off the bench… simply doesn’t play well enough on defense (or offense) with PF and future Hall of Famer Draymond Green on the injury list.  The problem is C Kevon Looney needs help…. And his frontcourt mate Draymoond Green is one of the few players in the league that can shut down the guy that he is on… AND give Kevon some help.   This is a winning team, this is a deep playoff team… but that is all predicated on Draymond Green playing.

The Denver Nuggets have won 9 of their last ten games.  They are in a groove.  They are blasting other teams out of the gym.  They are 6-4 ATS during that stretch!  So why aren’t they rocketing up the Finals odds in prop bets?!  Because it is all the result of a single player… C Nikola Jokic. Okic leads the team in points, assists, rebounds, FG%, steals, and blocks. The rest of the team looks a bit like a G-league team that has been moved up to the pros.  It’s a testament to Jokic’s greatness.  They won’t one day make movies about the NBA all-star that finished 4th- 6th in the Western Conference standings year after year… but this guy is Magic Johnson good.  Jokic is a hybrid of greatness at every skill… he’s just on the wrong team.  At the trade deadline I kept hearing from a source that Jokic was untouchable… that is a shame.  Jokic on Golden State would be a real dynasty for years to come.. Jokic in Chicago… Jokic in Miami… etc etc.  

Al McMordie was 6-1 yesterday, including a PERFECT 3-0 on his NBA Triple Pack with the Spurs, Heat and Mavericks getting the $$$$. Big Al's now 13-3 his last 16 NBA; 58-33 his last 91, overall; and is also 22-9 his last 31 Triple Packs. Get your broom ready for another 3-0 SWEEP! Hop on board right now!  Get Big Al’s picks!   You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Warriors are 44-22 on the season, but 32-30-4 ATS.  They have logged 29 Overs, 35 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 17-15 in road games.

The Nuggets are 39-26 on the season, but 30-34-1 ATS.  They have notched 34 Overs, 29 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 20-11 in home games.

The Warriors are 11th in scoring with 111.2 ppg, 8th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8. On defense they rank 5th while allowing 104.9 ppg from opponents.

The Nuggets are 10th in scoring with 111.3 ppg, 21st in rebounds with 44.1 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 12th while allowing 108.3 ppg to opponents.

Our prediction for Thursday, March 10th is…. Nuggets 118 - Warriors 114

The Nuggets have no one on the frontline who can hang with Nikola Jokic.  Yes, the reverse is true about Austin Rivers and Monte Morris not being able to hang with Steph and Klay… but there is a big difference in the FG% from the dominant C and the small guards on the perimeter.  The last time these two teams played the Nuggets and Jokic pulled out a close win of 117-116.  That was around the start of the Warriors plummeting in the standings. Jokic had 35 points and 17 rebounds in that game!  He will have a bigger game this time around… especially if Aaron Gordon could get a few more than 10 points?... that might free up Jokic for an even bigger game( warning: Gordon has shown no ability to get points when needed)

Golden State is 10-3 ATS revenging a loss this season.

Golden State is 12-4 ATS after 3 games of hitting better than 47% from the field the last 3 seasons.

5 of 8 games in this matchup have gone Under the last 3 seasons.

Warriors: SF Otto Porter Jr (ill) Prob ** PG Gary Payton II (knee) Quest ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out ** PF Draymond Green (calf) Out ** SG Andre Igoudala (back) Out 

Nuggets:  Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, V Cancar, N Hyland… all out

Warriors: PF Moses Moody, SF Andrew Wiggins, C Kevon Looney, SG Klay Thompson, PG Steph Curry

Nuggets: PF Jeff Green, SF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, PG Monte Morris, SG Austin Rivers 

Warriors

Points: Stephen Curry 25.6

Assists: Draymond Green 7.4

Rebounds: Kevon Looney 7.6

Steals: Gary Payton II 

Blocks: Draymond Green 1.2 

Nuggets

Points: Nikola Jokic 25.9

Assists: Nikola Jokic 8.1

Steals: Nikola Jokic 1.4

Blocks: Nikola Jokic 0.8

Rebounds: Nikola Jokic 13.8

Warriors: Steve Kerr

Nuggets: Michael Malone