Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 

Venue:   American Airlines Arena, Dallas, Texas  

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Mavericks -2.5; O/U 219

Fanduel:  Mavericks -2; O/U 219.5

BetMGM: Mavericks -2.5; O/U 219.5

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference

An NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Game 3.  The Golden State Warriors defended their home court spectacularly.  They blew out Dallas in Game 1, 112-87, in a devastating display of defense on Luka Doncic and his supporting cast of role players.  Then came The Curious Case of Game Two!  In Game two the Dallas Mavericks got out to a better start than the Warriors.  They were building and holding a nice double-digit lead… but it was ultimately fleeting as the Warriors started hitting shots.  Warriors PF Draymond Green did an admirable job of walking the line of pestering the referees and inspiring fiery play from his teammates.  By the Second half the Warriors were cutting into that Mavericks lead until there was no lead at all.  In the second half of the fourth quarter the Warriors pushed their own lead to double digits… and finished with a 9 point win of 126-117.  The point spread in Game 2 was 6 or 6.5 depending on where you did your betting.  I had recommended a Warriors bet to win and cover… and I am kicking myself for betting it smaller than my last win against the Celtics.  Money management is important in betting… but growing my bankroll by only $450… instead of $900 is a “kick myself moment”.  That leaves what we should think about Game 3?... The Spread favors the Mavericks because it is the first game on Dallas’s home floor.  The thinking is that Dallas will play better in Dallas and they will have made some adjustments based on what they learned from losing Games 1 and 2.  Of course what adjustments could they make outside of “please hit your shot guys!”?.  The Mavericks are actually favored by 2 to 2.5 points… My gut says that the Mavs will get swept.  Let’s check the numbers and make sure.

The Golden State Warriors have won 7 of their last ten games.  They are 2-0 against the Mavericks and 2-0 ATS.  During the last 10 games they are 4-6 ATS.  The Memphis Grizzlies pushed the Warriors pretty hard and the Warriors now look like a bad betting opportunity ATS.  They are 5 Over and 5 Under during that stretch as well.  The Mavericks are not the Grizzlies.  In the last win Golden State once again got good games from seemingly the entire starting five as well as a few of the subs.  PG Stephen Curry pulled in 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. C Kevon Looney won the game by landing 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists.  Kevon is the type of Center who is out there for defense and rebounding… and if you get 21 points from him… you will get the win.  23 points form SG Jordan Poole and 15 points from SF Klay Thomspon… SF/PF Andrew Wiggins made everyone’s day in the Chase Center as he played lights out defense (once again) and poured in 16 points.  PF Draymond Green once again put up a very Draymond game with 6 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.  His defense and passing can’t be duplicated by any other power forward in the league… The Hall Of Fame will have a bust of Draymond Green, and when Charles Barkley retires his TNT studio seat is obviously going to Draymond.  

The Mavericks are beaten and worried.  When a team goes down 0-2 in the Conference Finals a comeback is mathematically unlikely… but winning a few games isn’t.  They have won 5 of their last 10 games.  Going 5-5 ATS.  4 Over and 6 Under.  The Mavs are suffering from having one guy who is a superstar and has a usage rate only comparable to Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo.  It makes sense as Luka Doncic is a legit top-five player in the league and easily the newest version of LeBron.  The problem of course is if one guy has the ball sooo much… They have to find ways to get the others involved.  Luka is a good passer but is damn sure going to shoot the ball more often than pass it to a shooter.  The fix for this team is obviously to find another scorer in the off-season and run the offense through that guy when Luka is not on the floor.  When they play together Luka should be willing to share the ball more.  That’s for later… In game 2 PG Luka Doncic got 42 points in 38 minutes of play.  He added 8 assists and 5 rebounds.  To say that Luka didn’t do everything in his power to win a game is tro be wrong.  SG Jalen Brunson even got 31 points with 7 rebounds and 5 assists.  SF Reggie Bullock landed 21 points 3, 2.  It was a productive day for the scorers… The disappointment was the Mavericks Center position where starter Dwight Powell is playing less and less (only 7:49 minutes, 0 points) while his back-up Maxi Kleber looked hopeless in 33 minutes getting only 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist.  Contrast that with Warriors Center Kevon Looney getting 21 points… and you have the secret to the win.  The Mavs never needed Kristaps (whom they traded) Porzingis more.  

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The Warriors are 62-32 on the season, but 48-43-4 ATS.  They have logged 43 Overs, 50 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 24-22 on the road.

The Mavericks are 60-37 on the season, but 55-41-1 ATS.  They have notched 37 Overs, 59 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 34-13 in road games.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 points per game, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 points per game, 24th in rebounds with 43.0 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg. 

 

Our prediction for Sunday, May 22nd is…..  Warriors 110 - Mavericks 102

The Warriors will rock the Mavs all the way through a sweep.  The problem the Mavs face is that the Warriors 4th best scorer (Andrew Wiggins) has the length and size to play Luka on defense… plus they have 3 other guys who can do time on Luka (Porter Jr, Green, and Kuminga) without disrupting the offense.  It doesn’t mean they will stop Luka… It does mean they will slow the entire Mavericks team.  All while not disrupting their own offense.  

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Dallas is 13-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

Dallas is 20-8 ATS when revenging a same season loss.

Golden State is 14-5 ATs after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.

Golden State is 61-43 ATS versus Dallas since 1996.

4 of 5 games in this matchup played at Dallas have gone Over.

Warriors: PG Gary Payton II (elbow) OUT ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out ** SG Andre Igoudala (neck) Out

Mavericks: SF Luka Doncic (illness) Probable ** SG Tim Haraway (foot) Out

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson, PF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Warriors: Steve “The Ringmaster” Kerr

Mavericks: Jason “Supervillian” Kidd