Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 06/10/2022

by James Q

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 06/10/2022

Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Friday, June 10th, 2022 
Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts  
Where to Watch:  ABC

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Celtics -4; O/U 214.5
Fanduel:  Celtics -4; O/U 214
BetMGM: Celtics -3.5; O/U 214.5

NBA Standings

Golden State Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference
Boston Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

The NBA Finals Game 4 is approaching fast.  The Celtics lead the series 2-1.  So far the games have been filled with the type of storylines that don’t disappoint.  The Celtics won Game 1, cashing as the underdog and hitting an OVER.  The Warriors won Game 2 while beating the spread as a home favorite and hitting an Under.  The Celtics won Game 3, as a favorite at home,  covered ATS and hit an Over.  There is a pattern of back and forth… The sort of back and forth that could lead to an exciting Game 7….. OR… And this is the big decision that has to be made?… Or the Celtics have finally reached the mountaintop and learned how to lean on their #1 ranked defense AND size advantage while spreading the scoring around to beat the Warriors soundly.  A horrible thing happened to the Warriors in this game.  PG Steph Curry came up from a scrum for a loose ball with a bit of a limp.  He was the last guy to get off the floor as he spent a minute writhing in pain.  If that ends up being something more serious than anyone has said yet… The Series could easily be the Celtics in 5 games.

In Game 3 the Golden State Warriors got exposed.  They are spread thin and a little small.  You would be hard pressed to find too many examples of the Warriors getting 31 points from PG Steph Curry, 25 points from SF/SG Klay Thompson, and 18 points from SF/PF Andrew Wiggins that results in a postseason loss.  The Warriors as a team had 22 assists and 16 turnovers… not good.  PF/C Draymond Green had a terrible game with just 2 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists.  I will be the first to tell you Draymond firmly belongs in the Hall Of Fame because of all the things he does outside of scoring…. Draymond is on my NBA all-time defensive player Mt Rushmore.  He just had a bad game and didn’t do enough of the little things to get the win.  He of course was playing too in his own head after creating drama in Game 2 over how he does everything to get into the opponent's head.  Warriors Center Kevon Looney was outclassed by Celtics Center Robert Williams III to the point that Kevono only played 16 minutes.  The overall problem the Warriors are having in this series is their sheer lack of size… That can be blamed entirely on Head Coach Steve Kerr who foolishly refuses to play Rookie PF Jonathan Kuminga and role player PF Nemanja Bjelica… THESE guys need to play more than two minutes of garbage time BECAUSE the Warriors need their SIZE.  It also might help Draymond to sit long enough to have fresh legs in the 4th quarter.   There is some hope for the Warriors as it won’t take much to get more than 2 points from Draymond or more than 6 points from Otto Porter JR, or more than 10 points from SG Jordan Poole.

The Celtics won Game 3, but even more than that, seem to have put everything together.  It all worked on Wednesday night in the Garden for the boys in Green.  They won the battle of the boards… they won the battle of the turnovers… they blocked shots (specifically Robert Williams III)... They followed Head Coach Ime Udoka's subtle adjustments to a T.  They looked sharp (specifically C Robert Williams III).  I owe an apology to the readers of my regular column… and to Celtics’ Center Robert Williams III.  Earlier in the year when the Celtics were losing as often as they won… I wrote that Robert Williams III was not enough.  Now mind you I live on the West coast and see most of those early season Celtics games through a box score.  It’s not until the All-star break that I watched them as often as I did the Lakers, Grizzlies, Clippers, or Suns.  In the box score Robert Williams III looks like a starting center that gets 8 points and 8 rebounds on any given night.  I can name a dozen starting Big Men better in the box score just in the Eastern Conference.  It’s not until you watch the Celtics regularly that you can see IT… Center Robert Williams III had 8 points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes of play… but OH MY! Big Bob affected every aspect of the game with his 3 steals, 4 big blocks, and the countless times he swallowed the space around the basket forcing the Warriors into bad shots.  He had the best +/- result (+21) of any player in the game.. Which is hard to do when PG Marcus Smart had 24 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists in the same game while playing fantastic defense.  So I was wrong about the Celtics’ Big Man… It won’t happen again.  The Celtics also had great games from their stars: SF Jayson Tatum 26, 6, 9 and SG Jaylen Brown 27, 9, 5.  In fact Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown combined for the first time three players on the same squad in the same game in the postseason had 25, 5, and 5 or better since Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, and Micheal Cooper did it for the 1984 Lakers.  It was impressive.

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Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Golden State is 64-33 on the season, but 50-44-4 ATS.  They have notched 45 Over, 51 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 39-10 in home games.

Boston is 63-37 on the season, but 56-42-2 ATS.  They have logged 48 Over, 50 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 30-20 in road games.

Offensive Analysis

Warriors: The Warriors are 15th in the league in scoring with 111.0 points per game, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd in the league while allowing 105.5 ppg from opponents.  


Boston is 12th in scoring with 111.8 points per game, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they Rank FIRSTwhile holding opponents to 104.5 ppg… and blocking 5.8 shots per game (2nd in the league)
 

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Friday, June 10th is…..   Celtics 114 - Warriors 106

The Celtics will do it again at home.  I think everyone is forgetting the different paths that were taken to get here.  The Celtics had to beat Durant and Irving… then Giannis and JRue… Then Butler and Adebayo… That was such a harder path than Golden State’s: Jokic with no help… a young injured Grizzlies team… and Luka Doncic surrounded by role players.  The Celtics are more battle tested…. It turned out to be a great thing that Smart, Brown and Tatum were never separated when the NBA fans were calling for trades.  

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NBA Betting Trends

Boston is 33-16 ATS after an Under this season.
Boston is 23-10 after a loss of 10 points or more the last 3 seasons.
Boston has not lost two games or two games ATS in a row in the playoffs this season.
Golden State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Injury List

Golden State: Everyone is available
Boston:  Everyone is available

Everyone will be able to play… the guys held out like Andre Igoudala for the Warriors and possibly Robert Williams III for the Boston Celtics will be held close to the sleeve.  They don’t have to put a guy on the injured list at this point… they also might not be as hurt as all the recent limping implies. It will all be an unknown because of both gamesmanship and because the actual players will want to see if they can go … knowing full well that they may never get an NBA Finals chance again.

Starting Lineups

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson, PF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SFG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Coaches

Warriors: Steve “Another season, another Finals” Kerr

Celtics: Ime “Best defense is my doing!” Udoka



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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