Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Sunday, June 5th, 2022 

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts  

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Celtics -3.5; O/U 212.5

Fanduel:  Celtics -3.5; O/U 212.5

BetMGM: Celtics -3.5; O/U 212.5

Golden State Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

Boston Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

An NBA Finals Game 3.  The Finals, so far,  have produced a massive bunch of questions but no clear answers.  We have a 1-1 tie after two games.  The Boston Celtics won game 1 after trailing all game and having a big 4th quarter.  The Golden State Warriors won Game 2 by simply being the Golden State Warriors at home… They shot the ball well, especially the Decade MVP Steph Curry, and they won big.   This leaves a bunch of questions… Will the Celtics perform better at home?… Will the Warriors keep winning?... Is there a reliable bet based on the actual numbers… The answers are Yes, yes, and yes…  So lets look at it all.

When you cover the NBA for a decade you know 4 things empirically… Some bets are perfect, some bets are based on the numbers… and some bets will defy the numbers… and you will be wrong sometimes.  The numbers are numbers… the results are results.  When gambling you want to beat 60% or even perhaps 65% to really cash in and make a living.  I have done that for multiple years..   That is why you need to follow a Pro-handicapper , like I do.  As a writer who specializes in the NBA I know three teams I could make a championship contender: The Charlotte Hornets, The Sacramento Kings (two years), and the Toronto Raptors.  The Raptors I would charge 50K for a 50,000 word bible… the Kings 100k, and for the Hornets I would do it for free just to talk to Miacheal Jordan on the phone.   I bring all this up to illustrate that the Celtics and the Warriors are already there.  The Celtics are the #1 defensive team in the NBA and if they score they will kill the Warriors… The Warriors are a dynasty that has been rebirthed… Their combination of offense and defense is enough to win this series.  That is why we wring towels.  That is why we sleep poorly before a big bet… umm I mean a big game.  The handicappers sleep well.  The handicappers have done math on trends only they have identified. Either team can and might win this series… but the numbers will tell us how to bet the SPREAD.

The Golden State Warriors won the last NBA Finals game.  It was a blow out.  107-88.  A big win for the UNDER and a big win for Golden State ATS.  The Warriors got 29 points from their leader PG Stephen Curry, they also got 17 points from back-up SG Jordan Poole  who was doing an impression of deep shooting Steph Curry.  The amazing distance form which Jordan Poole hit shots is why the impression tag has been put on him.  They were all Steph shots.  Jordan Poole hit a shot from half-court with the clock expiring in the third quarter.. But it wasn;t a run shot… it was a simple jump shot.  Again Klay Thompson was bad; Klay shot 4 of 19 from the field and was left in the game during garbage time to try and get him an easy look.  He didn't find one. The surprise, though it shouldn't be came from Warriors center Kevon Looney who only scored 12 point sand grabbed 7 rebounds… but Kevon was everywhere on defense and was everywhere when the Warriors needed to break the Celtics defense.  It helped Kevon Looney that Celtic’s Center Robert Williams III was against hobbled enough not to play in the second half.

The Boston Celtics lost Game 2 107-88.  They will be the first to tell you that they were in contention all the way through the halfway point of the third quarter.  The biggest problem facing the Celtics is their superstar SF Jayson Tatum has had a serious case of alligator arms since Game 7 of the Heat Conference Finale.  If the Celtics didn't have Jaylen Brown… the tally would be Warriors 2-0 instead of 1-1.  Tatum had 28 points but missed 11 shots from the field.  Jaylen Brown had 17 points and some great defensive plays.  PG Marcus Smart, the pride of Flower Mound, Texas, scored 2 points.  Smart is not supposed to be the offensive juggernaut as he plays great defense… but 2 points is unacceptable.  PF Al Horford also got scooped up into mediocrity with a lousy 2 points.  Horford’s 8 rebounds and 1 block is not worth the printing space in most newspapers.  They have a lot of room to achieve in Game 3.  Al it would take is better scoring from Tatum, Brown, Smart, and Horford at home… Is that so much to ask?

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Golden State is 64-33 on the season, but 50-44-4 ATS.  They have notched 45 Over, 51 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 39-10 in home games.

Boston is 63-37 on the season, but 56-42-2 ATS.  They have logged 48 Over, 50 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 30-20 in road games.

Warriors: The Warriors are 15th in the league in scoring with 111.0 points per game, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd in the league while allowing 105.5 ppg from opponents.  

Boston is 12th in scoring with 111.8 points per game, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they Rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg… and blocking 5.8 shots per game (2nd in the league)

 

Our prediction for Wednesday, June 8th is…..    Celtics 108 - Warriors 99

The Celtics are at home.  The Celtics have shown that quality defense will destroy the Warriors when it works.  The Celtics have a quality defense.  1 + 1 = 3 if the defense is good enough. The big bet is on the Under though… as each of these games has hinged on one or the other team not being able to score.

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Boston is 33-16 ATS after an Under this season.

Boston is 23-10 after a loss of 10 points or more the last 3 seasons.

Boston has not lost two games or two games ATS in a row in the playoffs this season.

Golden State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Golden State: Everyone is available

Boston:  Everyone is available

Everyone will be able to play… the guys held out like Andre Igoudala for the Warriors and possibly Robert Williams III for the Boston Celtics will be held close to the sleeve.  They don’t have to put a guy on the injured list at this point… they also might not be as hurt as all the recent limping implies. It will all be an unknown because of both gamesmanship and because the actual players will want to see if they can go … knowing full well that they may never get an NBA Finals chance again.

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson, PF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SFG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Warriors: Steve “Another season, another Finals” Kerr

Celtics: Ime “Best defense is my doing!” Udoka