Game Time: 4:15 PM  ET, Thursday, March 17th, 2022

Venue: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Where to Watch:  TNT

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Gonzaga -23.5; O/U 149

Caesars:  Spread:  Gonzaga -23.5; O/U 149.5

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Gonzaga -23.5; O/U 149

FanDuel: Spread: Gonzaga -23.5; O/U 149

Georgia State Panthers: 15-10 on the season, finished 3rd in the Sun Belt. Won Sun Belt Conference Championship.

Gonzaga Bulldogs: 24-3 overall, finished 1st in the WCC… and ranked #1 in all of NCAA.

A monumental David and Goliath matchup to kick off the NCAA tournament for all those people who have Gonzaga winning their tournament bracket.  It is estimated that 40% of all brackets have Gonzaga in the Final Game. The difficult part of predicting this game will not be predicting who wins… it will be examining that 23.5 point, point spread.  I’m a guy who loves finding underdogs that will outplay a point spread!  I am simply struggling to find the shooting percentage or defensive ranking… or an odd number about Georgia State playing on Thursdays?  There is nothing to point to in this matchup that says Georgia State has the advantage.  For a David to Beat a Goliath ATS… the David needs a slingshot!  It’s imperative.  When you pour through these numbers 23.5 points seems a little low actually.  Regular readers of this space know that I avoid double digit point spreads on the basis that the winning team doesn’t always feel the rush to race to the finish line when they are already up by x amount of points.  In fact garbage time has dashed more hopes on the rocks of bad beats than just about anything else.  In this case, it is different.  The Gonzaga bench players (by the numbers, going back to recruiting rankings) are better than the Georgia State Starters.  Garbage time will still look like the Goletrotters vs the Generals.  Drew Timme, Chet Holmgren, and Andrew Nemhard will not see their equal anywhere on the court.  The only question up in the air is not whether Gonzaga will win and cover… but if the Under will come in?  Georgia State is good on defense… and against Goliaths coaches of underdogs always preach defense, defense, defense! So if Georgia State is able to keep this game close for the first half?... it would only be the result of locked in defensive effort… there is now way for Georgia to keep it close if they try running and gunning against Gonzaga.

Georgia State has won 9 of their last ten games.  In fact they have not lost a regular season (or playoff) basketball game since February 3rd.  The problem with that impressive run is they are in the Sun Belt conference.  The victims of the Georgia State winning streak are Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, UL Monroe, UL Lafayette, Appalachian State… you get it.  No basketball powerhouses on the list.  The team that beat them in early February was Troy State.  It was a great run to get here… but if you go back to January and December… Everyone was beating Georgia State… even some of these teams.  In fact if Georgia State had not won the Sun Belt Conference Tournament… they simply would not have been considered for the tournament at all.  Georgia State’s leading scorer 6’2 guard Corey Allen drops 13.5 ppg, 2.9 apg, 3.7 rpg. Corey has had a great season and should be proud… but he will not be sneaking into the paint from the backside to swipe any rebounds away from Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren.  The biggest problem Georgia State will face is the team’s core of talent seems to be at the guard position.  The Forwards Eliel Nsoseme and Jalen Thomas will be outsized and outclassed.  There will be very little Guards Justin Roberts and Kane Williams will be able to do to help on the frontline.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the favorite to be eventual Champs… That does not mean they will be… they are the favorites however.  Gonzaga has won 12 of their last 13 games (by adding the conference tournament to the regular season final ten).  Gonzaga has not been a great betting opportunity this season as they have faced big point spreads to cover.  The biggest recent spread was against conference foe Santa Clara Broncos… Gonzaga was favored by -22.5 points… Gonzaga won by 12 points.  Nembhard was the only Gonzaga starter to play more than 30 minutes.  It was a game of sitting at the end.  Also Santa Clara is a unique team to focus on because they covered 100% of their road games when they were the underdog.  They covered big and small spreads all season long on the road.  The one program that did beat Gonzaga was Saint Mary’s.  Saint Mary’s is Gonzaga’s only true rival in the West Coast Conference… The two teams have combined to have won 22 of the last 24 West Coast Conference Championships… Saint Mary’s lost to Gonzaga, then beat Gonzaga… then the teams met for a third time in the conference Finals where Gonzaga won and covered the spread.  The Bulldogs have three near future pros in their starting lineup… They will not struggle against Georgia State.  Covering this spread will ultimately be about how many minutes Timme, Holmgren, Nembhard, and Bolton play. 

The NCAA tournament is not the same animal as the rest of college basketball.  In the first round there will be several upsets.  Usually the middle teams have to worry big time about their bracket.  The history of #1 versus #16… only has that one single upset… remember?.. # 16 UMBC (University of Maryland Baltimore County)… beat the #1 Virginia Cavaliers in 2018.  Virginia would win the entire tournament the following season.  That was a bizarre outlier.  People have pointed to that maybe Virginia was just not worthy of the #1 ranking?... Maybe UMBC was better than a #16 placement?... It’s just that UMBC was such a small school with no tournament history of their own that they had to be put in the #16 spot?.... It’s all hooey.  UMBC won because they played a better basketball game that day!  Georgia State can always pin their hopes on that one exception to the rule… But Gonzaga is better now than Virginia was that year AND Gonzaga is better now than Virginia was in 2019 when they won it all.  Don’t let the exception to the rule get you to break your rules with your money.

Al McMordie was 0-2 in the NBA yesterday, and is 78-52 his last 130. Big Al was 28-19-1 in the Conference Tourneys, and was 4-0-1 in last year's NIT. Here, pick up Big Al's Tuesday NIT Tourney Winner out of a super 18-2 ATS angle. Pick it up right now, and HIT IT HARD! Don't miss out! Get Big Al’s pick!!  It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. Also don’t miss Monday’s picks!!  All your NCAA basketball needs for the entire college basketball season!  All your needs in any sport for that matter! 

GSU is 18-10 on the season, but 12-12-1 ATS.  They have logged 8 Overs, 17 UNDERS.  They are 4-1 on neutral courts.

Gonzaga is 26-3 on the season, but 14-12-3 ATS.  They have notched 12 Overs, 17 UNDERS.  They are 5-2 on neutral courts.

Georgia State is 195th in scoring with 70.4 ppg, 77th in rebounds with 34.2 per game, and 133rd in AST/To ratio with 1.1.  They rank 46th on defense while holding opponents to 64.6 ppg.  

Gonzaga is 1st in college basketball in scoring with 88.3 ppg, 3nd in rebounds with 39.3 per game, and 7th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6. On defense they rank 54th while holding opponents to 65 ppg.

Our prediction for Thursday, March 17th is… Gonzaga 88 - Georgia State 49

Gonzaga will destroy Georgia State and even when they take their foot off the gas the backups will be better than the Georgia State back-ups.  There will be no tension from tip to buzzer.  Gonzaga will win AND cover that huge spread.  

I also lean heavily on the UNDER in this game. Georgia State is a poor shooting team at only 40% FG, 32% from 3, and 70% FT.  As the chasm gets bigger and bigger between the two teams.. Georgia State will shoot with more desperation and miss more shots.  They will get very little in the pait with the Holmgren block party down there.

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These teams have not played each other the last 3 years.. Or since 1997… or ever.

Georgia State is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

Gonzaga is 16-6 ATS after a win of 10 points or more this season.

Gonzaga is 12-4 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in 2 consecutive games.

Georgia State: G Nelson Phillips (undisclosed) Questionable

Gonzaga:  Nothing new to report.

Georgia State: Eliel Nsoseme, Justin Roberts, Corey Allen, Kane Williams, Jalen Thomas

Gonzaga:  Chet Holmgren, Drew Timmy, Julian Strawther, Rasir Boltonl, Andrew Nembhard