by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 17, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Appalachian State -9.5
FanDuel: Appalachian State -9.5
BetMGM: Appalachian State -10.5
Caesars: Appalachian State -10
Season record
Georgia State: 2-4 (1-1 Sun Belt)
Appalachian State: 3-3 (1-2 Sun Belt)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 7 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
Georgia State - Appalachian State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Georgia State: won 41-33 vs. Georgia Southern
Appalachian State: lost 36-24 at Texas State
This can be seen as a battle between two underwhelming teams in the Sun Belt with the Georgia State Panthers hitting the road for a Wednesday night conference showdown against the Appalachian State Mountaineers that will be broadcast on ESPN2 for all the glory in the world that is the Sun Belt Conference.
This can be seen as a battle between two underwhelming teams in the Sun Belt with the Georgia State Panthers hitting the road for a Wednesday night conference showdown against the Appalachian State Mountaineers that will be broadcast on ESPN2 for all the glory in the world that is the Sun Belt Conference.
But if we’re being honest, this is anything but glorious for these two teams that should be so much better than the record indicates. Georgia State comes in with a 2-4 record but dealt an interesting hand since losing its first four games. After one-score losses to North Carolina and Charlotte, GSU has rebounded with wins over Army and Georgia Southern. That Georgia Southern win now becomes more meaningful after the Eagles beat No. 25 James Madison on Saturday afternoon.
The Panthers are led by a running game that is averaging close to 230 yards per game. They put up 335 and three touchdowns against the Eagles with Jamyest Williams (129 yards, 1 TD) and leading rusher Tucker Gregg (111 yards, 2 TD) leading the way. Quarterback Darren Grainger was also solid in completing 16 of 25 for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while also running for 70.
It’s an offense that is capable of going stride for stride with any level-headed program they face. The quarterback is a question mark because if you force Grainger to beat you with his arm, there haven’t been many instances where he can show he’s capable of doing that. Whereas the Panthers’ opponent this week, the Mountaineers, has a great quarterback at its disposal, but have just ran into some bad luck as of late.
Appalachian State, at first glance, is underperforming with the 3-3 record and should be a lot better than they are. The 1-2 mark in Sun Belt play is also not the best mark to have at the moment, but there’s also the weird caveat of having quality wins over Texas A&M and Troy. There’s really now winning here.
But in all honesty, when you have a quarterback like Chase Brice having a superstar-caliber year and not resulting in more than three wins is honestly disappointing. Appalachian State is operating at a one-dimensional clip right now, and that’s the most disappointing part of this whole thing. Look no further than the 36-24 loss to Texas State. Brice was tremendous completing 40 of 53 passes for 395 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw a pick six toward the end. But the running game was non-existent, carrying just 21 times for 41 yards,
Appalachian State can’t get by on that. If it wants to be in the conference discussion at the end of the year, the Mountaineers can’t be competing like this and be so one-dimensional. If they do, it’s going to have results like a week ago. But at home, this should be a much better performance from App State in what’s going to be a must-win.
Prediction
I like App State at home. Usually when you have an unbalanced offense, you tend to find the balance in front of the home crowd. The Mountaineers won’t be putting up 41 yards on the ground again, especially at home. Appalachian State by 17
Betting trends
Georgia State is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games overall.
Georgia State is 14-3 ATS after playing a conference game the last three years.
Georgia State is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 October games.
Appalachian State is 10-17 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
Appalachian State is 8-12 ATS against conference opponents the last three seasons.
Statistical leaders
Georgia State:
Passing: Darren Grainger -- 1,214 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Tucker Gregg -- 460 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jamari Thrash -- 503 yards, 2 TD
Appalachian State:
Passing: Chase Brice -- 1,674 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Camerun Peoples -- 366 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Christian Horn -- 407 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
