by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 30, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
Where to watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Georgia -29
FanDuel: Georgia -28.5
BetMGM: Georgia -28.5
Caesars: Georgia -29
Season record
No. 1 Georgia: 4-0 (1-0 SEC)
Missouri: 2-2 (0-1 SEC)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Georgia - Missouri preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Georgia: won 39-22 vs. Kent State
Missouri: lost 17-14 (OT) at Auburn
It doesn’t happen often that the Georgia Bulldogs let up on the gas, but they absolutely did that last week. A 39-22 win over Kent State is, of course, accepted in every realm. But it’s the first time in quite a while that Georgia allowed 20 points in a game and the Bulldogs did not cover in what should’ve been a blowout. Alas, the No. 1 team in the country is 4-0 with another winnable game this weekend against the Missouri Tigers.
It doesn’t happen often that the Georgia Bulldogs let up on the gas, but they absolutely did that last week. A 39-22 win over Kent State is, of course, accepted in every realm. But it’s the first time in quite a while that Georgia allowed 20 points in a game and the Bulldogs did not cover in what should’ve been a blowout. Alas, the No. 1 team in the country is 4-0 with another winnable game this weekend against the Missouri Tigers.
It was hard for Georgia to look like the best team in the nation when it led only 19-13 in the second quarter. Despite putting up 529 yards of offense, Georgia didn’t do much to put the game away. It seemed like the Bulldogs just took their foot off the gas, which you’d think after dominating to a national championship and what not that they’d be given one off game. It’s not like Alabama hasn’t had that happen against Texas or something. Stetson Bennett didn’t have the best game, going for 272 yards and an interception, but the running game had 257 yards and four scores highlighted by a 75-yard end-around from tight end Brock Bowers. Jamon Dumas-Johnson had two sacks and three tackles for loss, and Georgia’s defense held Kent State to less than 300 total yards. In short, the defense did fine.
"We don't care too much about the rankings," defensive lineman Nazir Stackhouse said. "We focus on us. It's always a ‘we' thing. We're always focused on our development as a team, no matter where we are in the rankings."
The fact that it was something even discussed that Georgia could fall out of the top ranking is almost absurd, but these are the times we live in with the college rankings at this point. Funny that Kent State played its third game against a top-25 team and this was the best it looked out of the three, so take that how you will. Nevertheless, no one is going to doubt Georgia when they literally won by 45 points in almost every game last year. This defense is still too strong to be doubted even once, and even if the offense can’t get going, clearly the defense puts it in position to put up 39 points. That’s the kind of effort they give.
Missouri is in a world of trouble. The Tigers blew a gigantic opportunity at Auburn last week, losing 17-14 in overtime to a struggling Auburn team. Missouri is now 2-2 with a loss in conference play and it should be highly expected that they’ll go 2-3 with two losses on the ledger. Quarterback Brady Cook threw for 179 yards and an interception with Dominic Lovett reeling in 102 of those yards on five catches. Nathaniel Peat ran for 110 yards on 20 carries. In short, don’t expect these types of performances again – even from the quarterback – against a Georgia team that will likely respond in kind.
"To lose that way — really twice — is just devastating for our locker room and our coaches," Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz said. "Just stinks. Hard to take."
Prediction
Georgia has won 25 of its last 27 straight up as a favorite and have won 9 in a row as a road favorite. Their dominance knows no bounds and even though they’ve only gone 16-13 ATS in their last 29, the Bulldogs should dominate a Missouri team that looked inept on offense last week. Georgia by 35
Betting trends
Georgia is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite in its last nine.
Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.
Georgia is 8-2 ATS off a home win in its last 10.
Missouri is 8-8 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog.
Missouri is 7-7 ATS in its last 14 home games.
Statistical leaders
Georgia:
Passing: Stetson Bennett -- 1,224 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Kendall Minton -- 208 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Brock Bowers -- 276 yards, 2 TD
Missouri:
Passing: Brady Cook -- 805 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Nathaniel Peat -- 225 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Dominic Lovett -- 376 yards, 2 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Georgia Bulldogs - Missouri Tigers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
