Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/30/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 30, 2021
Venue:  Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Fresno +1, SDSU -1; Over/Under:  44.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Fresno +1, SDSU -1; Over/Under:  44.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Fresno +1, SDSU -1; Over/Under:  44.5 points
 

Season Record

Fresno State Bulldogs:  6-2 (2nd place, MW West)
San Diego State Aztecs:  7-0 (1st place, MW West)
 
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Ben Burns is on an 11-3 (10*) FOOTBALL RUN! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

 

Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Fresno State Bulldogs:  won at home on Oct. 23 against the Nevada Wolf Pack 34-32.
San Diego State Aztecs:  win on the road on Oct. 23 against the Air Force Falcons 20-14.
 
 
 

Fresno State Bulldogs Analysis

Fresno State is coming into this game with a 6-2 record overall and they are 2-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 5th conference matchup of the year and they are in a good position right now with a 3-1 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 loss came against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors while their 3 wins came against the UNLV Rebels, the Wyoming Cowboys, and against Nevada in their last game. That was a close game in their last one that they led the entire time but allowed Nevada to make a comeback in the fourth quarter scoring a TD with no time left but Fresno would hold onto the win after a failed 2-point conversion by Nevada that would have tied the game. Jake Haener played well in that game as he completed 26/38 passes for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jordan Mims led the team in rushing in that game with 134 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 carries while Ronnie Rivers had 80 yards and 1 TD on 3 carries. Keric Wheatfall led the receivers with 84 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions. Evan Williams led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones while Justin Houston was right behind him with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. David Perales led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while Daron Bland came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 285 points in their 8 games this season averaging 35.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 167 points against them allowing 20.9 PPG. Their offense is averaging 480 YPG while their defense is allowing 338.6 YPG.
 
 

San Diego State Aztecs Analysis

SDSU is coming into this game with a 7-0 record overall and they are 4-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 4th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are leading the way right now with a 3-0 record in their conference games this season. Their 3 wins came against the New Mexico Lobos, the San Jose State Spartans, and against AFA in their last game. They won that game in one that they dominated all night, jumping out to a 20-0 lead before AFA started to make their comeback in the second half but it just was not enough. Lucas Johnson was alright but did not really produce anything at the quarterback position in that game as he completed 11/13 passes for 72 yards. Chance Bell led the team in rushing with 50 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 carries while Greg Bell had 42 rushing yards on 10 carries. Kaegun Williams ran in the other touchdown in that game. Elijah Kothe led the receivers with 25 yards on 3 receptions in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Overall, it was a pretty quiet day for the entire offense as they won that game with their defense. Patrick McMorris led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Cameron Thomas recorded the only sack for them in that game while Dallas Branch came away with the only interception. They have scored 217 points in their 7 games this season averaging 31 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 110 points against them allowing 15.7 PPG. Their offense is averaging 331.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 279.4 YPG.
 

 

Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction

SDSU is coming into this game as a 1 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SDSU has a very good team, more specifically their defense has been incredible all season and has not allowed many points or yards against them. Fresno State has been playing well but they do have 2 losses on the road this year and they have also had problems closing out their games. They blew a lead in Hawaii losing that game a few weeks ago and they did the same thing in their last game winning by just 2 points on a missed 2-point conversion by their opponents or else they would have blown another late lead and that would have gone to overtime. SDSU is going to be able to stop Fresno with their defense so the best bet to place in this game is on SDSU to win on the moneyline and for them to cover the spread here. 
 
Fresno State San Diego State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 30, 2021 (10:30 pm ET start time) is SDSU 21 Fresno 17.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Fresno State Bulldogs San Diego State Aztecs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
 

NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Fresno State Bulldogs: 33-27 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 178-171 ATS in all games. 88-70 ATS as an underdog. 52-48 ATS as a road underdog. 90-85 ATS in road games. 
San Diego State Aztecs: 14-29 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 104-154 O/U in all games. 28-58 O/U when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 49-76 O/U as a favorite. 30-50 O/U as a home favorite. 57-71 O/U in home games. 69-103 O/U against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Fresno State Bulldogs:  R. Rivers (RB) Ques Sat - Leg injury.
San Diego State Aztecs:  Z. Thomas (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury.
 

Notable Quotes

 
“The momentum again, that’s going. We had a little blip on the radar (at Hawaii) a couple weeks ago. Other than that, I thought we’ve been doing a pretty good job stringing things along and continue to get better.” - Kalen DeBoer on how his team has been performing this season ahead of this game against SDSU.
 
 
"Everybody knows what they do. They run the ball really well. They're a really tough team to play. It was just something that we game-planned really well this week. Our coaches made it simple for us and just let us play our game. It was just see ball, get ball." - Michael Shawfroft on their win over AFA in their last game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Fresno State Bulldogs
WR Wheatfall, Keric 
WR Kelly, Josh 
WR Cropper, Jalen 
TE Rodriguez, Juan 
QB Haener, Jake 
RB Rivers, Ronnie 
 
San Diego State Aztecs
WR Shavers, Tyrell 
WR Matthews, Jesse 
WR Busbee, BJ 
TE Bellinger, Daniel 
TE Rudolph, Jay 
QB Brookshire, Jordon 
RB Bell, Greg 
RB Byrd, Jordan 
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Fresno State Bulldogs
Passing: J. Haener (2582)
Rushing: R. Rivers (573)
Receiving: J. Cropper (580)
Touchdowns: J. Cropper (10)
 
San Diego State Aztecs
Passing: J. Brookshire (560)
Rushing: G. Bell (603)
Receiving: D. Bellinger (197)
Touchdowns: G. Bell (5)
 
Coaches:
Fresno State Bulldogs: Kalen DeBoer (2nd season)
San Diego State Aztecs: Brady Hoke (2nd season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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