by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Jan 20, 2022
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV
Where to watch: N/A
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Nevada -1
WynnBet: Nevada -2
Caesars: Nevada -1.5
Season record
Fresno State: 13-4 (3-1 Mountain West)
Nevada: 8-7 (2-2 Mountain West)
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Fresno State - UNR preview, analysis and prediction
It seems like the Mountain West Conference is pretty wide open in regard to the top of the league, and the Fresno State Bulldogs have as good of a claim as anyone.
The Bulldogs are off to a great 13-4 start and on a three-game winning streak. I’m a fan of their chances in pushing it to four on Friday when they visit the Nevada-Reno Wolf Pack at Lawlor Events Center.
Fresno State has been pushed over the past week with single-digit wins over the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in Las Vegas, followed by a 7-point home victory over the Utah State Aggies. Despite shooting below 40 percent, Fresno State held on thanks to 14 points off the bench from Deon Stroud, and an 11-point, 13-rebound double-double from Orlando Robinson despite the star shooting 4 of 12.
The difference was 3-point shooting, as Utah State made only 2 of 12 while Fresno State went 7 of 20. Sometimes the slight moments in a game are decided when teams can make shots, even when the opponent shoots 47 percent from the field.
But it says a lot on how good Fresno State is when Robinson can struggle as much as he did offensively and still get a win. Robinson averages 19 points and almost nine rebounds per game, and if the Bulldogs are to keep things interesting for them heading into March, they’ll need Robinson to be a dominant force like he’s been.
The Bulldogs might arguably be the best defensive team in the Mountain West, giving up 56.5 points per game. It might not be the pillar of San Diego State, but they’re going to play a tough style of defense that’s made it tough for teams to get comfortable.
Playing against a UNR team that has lost three of five is the perfect recipe. UNR is one of the top scoring teams in the conference at 76.3 points per game, but the Wolf Pack have also given up almost 76 per game themselves. Defense is optional in Reno (much like it is to live there) and I don’t see how Fresno State doesn’t take advantage.
Fresno State is 9-1 against the spread as a favorite this season and is 19-15 over the past three seasons. Even if you’re concerned about the line, know that Fresno State is 28-6 straight up as a favorite in its last 34. It shouldn’t get to that point. Fresno State comfortably. Fresno State by 15
Betting trends
Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in last four Friday games.
Fresno State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 overall.
UNR is 0-6 ATS in its last six.
Projected starting lineup
Fresno State:
PG: Isaiah Hill
SG: Jordan Campbell
SF: Anthony Holland
PF: Leo Calimerio
C: Orlando Robinson
SF: Anthony Holland
PF: Leo Calimerio
C: Orlando Robinson
Nevada:
PG: Grant Sherfield
SG: Desmond Cambridge
SF: Kenan Blackshear
PF: Warren Washington
C: Will Baker
SF: Kenan Blackshear
PF: Warren Washington
C: Will Baker
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
