by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 29, 2021
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Purdue -11
BetMGM: Purdue -11.5
Caesars: Purdue -11
Season record
Florida State: 5-1
No. 2 Purdue: 6-0
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Florida State - Purdue preview and analysis
Recent form
Florida State: won 81-80 (OT) vs. Boston on Wednesday
Purdue: won 97-40 vs. Omaha on Friday
Fresh off becoming the No. 2 team in the country, the Purdue Boilermakers will try to move to 7-0 when they host the Florida State Seminoles at home on Tuesday.
Purdue is off to a 6-0 start for the third time under head coach Matt Painter entering his 18th season. Should Purdue get the win, the Boilers would be 7-0 for the seventh time in program history and the first time since 2015-16. That season, Purdue lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
After the chaos that ensued at the top of the rankings, Purdue matched its highest ranking in school history and the first time since 1988 that the Boilermakers were ranked No. 2. That year, Purdue only made the Sweet 16.
What all of this tells you is that Purdue needs more than just a good start to show it’s ready to finally break through and reach the Final Four.
But what this also tells us is that Purdue might have one of the most rounded-out starting fives in the country, led by big man Zach Edey. The 7-foot-4 center is averaging 17.7 points and almost 8 rebounds in just under 19 minutes per game. He’s also blocking nearly two shots a game and is shooting 75 percent from the floor.
Painter has 10 guys playing double-digit minutes with four players averaging double figures in scoring. Jaden Ivey (15.0) and Sasha Stefanovic (13.2) are their top perimeter players.
Purdue has covered its last four, two of those games by at least a margin of 20 points. The Boilermakers were 36.5-point favorites against Omaha and still covering by 20.5; and a 44-point win over Wright State where Purdue still covered by 28.
Florida State has reeled off four straight wins since its 16-point loss to the Florida Gators two weeks ago. But the last game against the Boston Terriers came with some record-breaking shenanigans. Florida State holds the all-time record with 12 straight overtime wins.
Matthew Cleveland had 17 points and the game-winning putback to give Florida State the win. Caleb Mills also added 17 points along with five assists and five steals.
The Seminoles have split against the spread to start the season and covered the last two before failing to cover as 19-point favorites against Boston. FSU was also 16.5-point favorites against Tulane before only winning by 5.
Prediction
It’d be one thing if Purdue didn’t capitalize on the win over Villanova, but we have to start taking Purdue seriously. This will be one game to keep an eye on and see if Purdue can handle Florida State’s athleticism. Purdue gets it done and handles business. Purdue by 12
Betting trends
Florida State is 6-3 ATS as an underdog in its last nine.
Purdue is 14-11 ATS in non-conference games in the last 25.
Purdue is 7-1 ATS after scoring 75 or more in consecutive games.
Purdue is 33-36 ATS in its last 69 after six or more straight wins.
Projected starting lineup
Florida State:
PG: Rayquan Evans
SG: Caleb Mills
SF: Anthony Polite
PF: Malik Osborne
C: Tanner Ngom
SF: Anthony Polite
PF: Malik Osborne
C: Tanner Ngom
Purdue:
PG: Isaiah Thompson
SG: Jaden Ivey
SF: Sasha Stefanovic
PF: Caleb Furst
C: Zach Edey
SF: Sasha Stefanovic
PF: Caleb Furst
C: Zach Edey
Statistical leaders
Florida State:
Points: Malik Osborne -- 12.5
Rebounds: Malik Osborne -- 7.7
Assists: Rayquan Evans -- 3.4
Purdue:
Points: Zach Edey -- 17.7
Rebounds: Trevion Williams -- 7.7
Assists: Sasha Stefanovic -- 4.3
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
