Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/17/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 17, 2026

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN, Disney+

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida State +21.5, Miami-FL -21.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida State +21.5, Miami-FL -21.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida State +21, Miami-FL -21; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Florida State Seminoles:  3-3 (1-2) (13th place, ACC)

Miami Hurricanes:  5-0 (3-0) (1st place, ACC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Tom Stryker is on a HOT STREAK in college football on a 10-2 CFB RUN for +$7,770 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Florida State Seminoles:  lost their last game on the road against the Louisville Cardinals 44-20.

Miami Hurricanes:  won their last game on the road against the Clemson Tigers 41-13.

Florida State is entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Louisville 44-20. Ashton Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 21/37 passes for 209 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Ousmane Kromah led the team in rushing yards with 88. Micahi Danzy led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 2 TDs. Chris Jones and CJ Richard Jr. each led the defense in that game with 7 tackles while Rylan Kennedy led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Miami-Florida is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Clemson 41-13. Darian Mensah was the starting QB and he completed 18/27 passes for 227 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 77 and 2 TDs. Cooper Barkate led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Omar Thornton led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Damon Wilson II led the defense in sacks with 2.5. JJ Dunnigan came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Miami listed as a 21.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Miami has looked great in their games this season with their 5-0 record overall and their 3-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They have looked great on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Florida State hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 3-3 record overall and their 1-2 conference record which has them in the bottom half of the ACC. They have looked terrible in their road games too with their 0-2 road record this year. Florida State hasn't looked that bad at times, but their defense has been a big issue for them all year. They have been giving up a ton of points in their games and they don't have the talent on offense to come back from behind. They are coming off a 44-20 loss to Louisville in their last one and that was a really pathetic loss for them since they jumped on a struggling Louisville team early, going up 14-0 right away, and then gave up 35 unanswered points. They have looked a lot better at home too and now they are on the road against the best team in the ACC and one of the best teams in the entire nation. Miami hasn't really been challenged this season by a top opponent, but they have had some tough road games in the conference and have handled those with ease. They have one of the best offenses in the nation that has been putting up a ton of points in their games and they are in a great situation here. They are coming off a 41-13 road win over Clemson in their last one and they are also coming out of their bye week, so they have had extra time to prepare and will bring their best effort for this rivalry. The best way to place a bet here is on Miami to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida State Miami Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Miami 56 Florida State 13.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Florida State Seminoles Miami Hurricanes prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.

Florida State Seminoles: 8-19 ATS against FBS division opponents. 1-10 ATS in road games. 2-8 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 4-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 18-9 UNDER against FBS division opponents. 15-4 UNDER against conference opponents.

Miami Hurricanes: 21-10 ATS against FBS division opponents. 6-1 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 9-3 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 12-4 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 6-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 7-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 

Florida State Seminoles:  D. Carter (WR) Questionable - Back. T. Gelsey (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Markey (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Singleton Jr. (RB) Out - Lower Body.

Miami Hurricanes:  O. Ruskavich (TE) Out - Undisclosed. M. Fletcher Jr. (RB) Questionable - Upper Body. J. Moore (WR) Out - Upper Body. C. Brown (RB) Out - Lower Body. L. Gilbert (TE) Out - Undisclosed.

“Unfortunately, we didn’t do a good enough job in that moment. They’re pinned back. They got to go 98 yards, and they did it in one play.” - Mike Norvell after his team’s loss against Louisville in their last game. 

“I thought he had awesome numbers, both with his arms and legs. He had command of the offense, putting us in the right run checks. He extended plays and made some awesome throws.” - Mario Cristobal on Darian Mensah after his team’s win against Clemson in their last game. 

WR Robinson, Duce

WR Danzy, Micahi

WR Boggs, Jayvan

TE Riles, Desirrio

QB Daniels, Ashton

RB Kromah, Ousmane

WR Jacobs, Vandrevius

WR Barkate, Cooper

WR Toney, Malachi

TE Lofton, Elija

QB Mensah, Darian

RB Fletcher Jr., Mark

Passing: Ashton Daniels (1,320)

Rushing: Ousmane Kromah (565)

Receiving: Jayvan Boggs (299)

Touchdowns: Ashton Daniels (10)

Passing: Darian Mensah (1,438)

Rushing: Mark Fletcher Jr. (307)

Receiving: Malachi Toney (604)

Touchdowns: Malachi Toney (6)

Coaches:

Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (7th season)

Miami Hurricanes: Mario Cristobal (5th season)