by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 13, 2022
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Florida State -2.5
FanDuel: Florida State -2.5
BetMGM: Florida State -2.5
Caesars: Florida State -2
Season record
Florida State: 2-0
Louisville: 1-1
Upsets galore in Week 2 of college football! We almost saw Alabama go down in Week 2, but that didn't stop the top-25 polls from shaking up a great deal. What does Week 3 bring for us? Sean Murphy had a 6-2-1 run this past Saturday and is on a 15-8 run. If you like those odds, make sure you're following Sean's best bets. Check out Sean's picks, as well as other choices from our champion handicappers in our Best Bets section.
Florida State - Louisville preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Florida State: won 24-23 vs. LSU
Louisville: won 20-14 vs. Central Florida
We are in the realm of finding overreactions to cling on to in the world of college football, and some of them you just refuse to believe until further notice. Which brings me to the Florida State Seminoles and accepting the fact that they might be 3-0 after this week.
Matter of fact, it wouldn't be shocking at all if the Seminoles went into Cardinal Stadium on Friday and beat the Louisville Cardinals. Because when thinking of the disappointing teams in the world of college football, with the understanding that their quarterback is actually decent, the Cardinals really don't have a leg to stand on.
Florida State, however, by the grace of a missed extra point and stunning the state of Louisiana, is 2-0 and is well on hand to actually shock the football world in the immediate future. And yes, considering the trajectory of the Florida State program over the last few years, any improvement and coming within three wins of bowl eligibilty is success in my book.
The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 24-23 win against the LSU Tigers in a football event that still doesn't seem to make sense. Thanks to a blocked extra point at the end, the Seminoles withstood a last-second drive and escaped the Superdome with a win.
Jordan Travis threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns while not turning the ball over, and that was more than enough offense to hold off a struggling run game. Florida State also withstood a dual-threat effort from LSU transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels (323 total yards).
"Obviously, there at the end, you know, we had some things that happened that we just can't have," said head coach Mike Norvell, who has Florida State off to its first 2-0 start since 2016. "But the one thing that happened on the last play is what we absolutely need."
The fact that 2016 is the last time the 'Noles even sniffed this type of relevancy shows where the program has been the last six years. Norvell is tasked with an improbable task in trying to get this program back to a proud time, but no matter how they do it, getting wins is important.
Ontaria Wilson was incredible with seven receptions, 102 yards and two touchdowns, and Jared Verse was a beast on the defensive side with two sacks.
"I just had a big smile on my face and a couple of tears thinking about how much we have been through as a football team," Travis said. "To end the game like that is really special. The game really shouldn't have been that close from the jump. But a win is a win."
The Cardinals got their first win of the season last week against the UCF Knights, on the road, after getting slapped by Syracuse on the road the week prior. Malik Cunningham had 316 total yards, 121 of them on the ground, and the Cardinals relied on a second-half comeback to win.
"(Running) just opens up another dimension of our offense," Cunningham said. "We have great running backs and to add my legs and my arm to that...it's something we've been doing the last three years."
Florida State has not been a good team at the books given their rough play the last few years. As a favorite, the Seminoles are just 2-6 against the spread the past few years and just 6-10 ATS against conference opponents. They're even 116-125 against conference foes since 1992, so it's not like things have changed. Louisville, meanwhile, is 12-13 ATS in its last 25. That's not a mark I would trust against a better team.
We are in the realm of finding overreactions to cling on to in the world of college football, and some of them you just refuse to believe until further notice. Which brings me to the Florida State Seminoles and accepting the fact that they might be 3-0 after this week.
Matter of fact, it wouldn't be shocking at all if the Seminoles went into Cardinal Stadium on Friday and beat the Louisville Cardinals. Because when thinking of the disappointing teams in the world of college football, with the understanding that their quarterback is actually decent, the Cardinals really don't have a leg to stand on.
Florida State, however, by the grace of a missed extra point and stunning the state of Louisiana, is 2-0 and is well on hand to actually shock the football world in the immediate future. And yes, considering the trajectory of the Florida State program over the last few years, any improvement and coming within three wins of bowl eligibilty is success in my book.
The Seminoles are coming off a thrilling 24-23 win against the LSU Tigers in a football event that still doesn't seem to make sense. Thanks to a blocked extra point at the end, the Seminoles withstood a last-second drive and escaped the Superdome with a win.
Jordan Travis threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns while not turning the ball over, and that was more than enough offense to hold off a struggling run game. Florida State also withstood a dual-threat effort from LSU transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels (323 total yards).
"Obviously, there at the end, you know, we had some things that happened that we just can't have," said head coach Mike Norvell, who has Florida State off to its first 2-0 start since 2016. "But the one thing that happened on the last play is what we absolutely need."
The fact that 2016 is the last time the 'Noles even sniffed this type of relevancy shows where the program has been the last six years. Norvell is tasked with an improbable task in trying to get this program back to a proud time, but no matter how they do it, getting wins is important.
Ontaria Wilson was incredible with seven receptions, 102 yards and two touchdowns, and Jared Verse was a beast on the defensive side with two sacks.
"I just had a big smile on my face and a couple of tears thinking about how much we have been through as a football team," Travis said. "To end the game like that is really special. The game really shouldn't have been that close from the jump. But a win is a win."
The Cardinals got their first win of the season last week against the UCF Knights, on the road, after getting slapped by Syracuse on the road the week prior. Malik Cunningham had 316 total yards, 121 of them on the ground, and the Cardinals relied on a second-half comeback to win.
"(Running) just opens up another dimension of our offense," Cunningham said. "We have great running backs and to add my legs and my arm to that...it's something we've been doing the last three years."
Florida State has not been a good team at the books given their rough play the last few years. As a favorite, the Seminoles are just 2-6 against the spread the past few years and just 6-10 ATS against conference opponents. They're even 116-125 against conference foes since 1992, so it's not like things have changed. Louisville, meanwhile, is 12-13 ATS in its last 25. That's not a mark I would trust against a better team.
Prediction
I'm always hesitant to believe in Florida State because I've never cared for that school (go Miami), but a 3-0 start seems on the horizon and I can't get that out of my head. Florida State by 8
Betting trends
The under is 21-9 since 1992 after Florida State plays two straight non-conference games.
Florida State is 5-11 ATS since 1992 off an upset win as an underdog.
The under is 24-10 after Louisville plays on a two-game road trip.
Statistical leaders
Florida State:
Passing: Jordan Travis -- 467 yards, 2 TD
Rushing: Treshaun Ward -- 176 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Johnny Wilson -- 111 yards
Louisville:
Passing: Malik Cunningham -- 353 yards, 2 INT
Rushing: Tiyon Evans -- 164 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Tyler Hudson -- 169 yards
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
