by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 20, 2023
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 25, 2023
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: FSU -6.5, Florida +6.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: FSU -6.5, Florida +6.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: FSU -6.5, Florida +6.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Season Record
Florida State Seminoles: 11-0 (8-0) (1st place, ACC)
Florida Gators: 5-6 (3-5) (5th place, SEC East)
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Florida State Seminoles: won their last game at home against the North Alabama Lions 58-13.
Florida Gators: lost their last game on the road against the Missouri Tigers 33-31.
Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis
Florida State is entering this game with an 11-0 record overall and they have an 8-0 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against North Alabama 58-13. Jordan Travis was the starting QB and he completed 2/4 passes for 21 passing yards before leaving injured and getting replaced by Tate Rodemaker who completed 13/23 passes for 217 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. CJ Campbell led the team in rushing yards with 78 and 1 TD. Jaheim Bell led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Patrick Payton led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Jarrian Jones, Braden Fiske, Gilber Edmond, and Joshua Farmer each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jarrian Jones came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Florida is entering this game with a 5-6 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Missouri 33-31. Graham Mertz was the starting QB and he completed 14/21 passes for 183 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception before leaving injured and getting replaced by Max Brown who completed 4/5 passes for 56 yards. Montrell Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 85. Ricky Pearsall led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Teradja Mitchell led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Princely Umanmielen led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Florida State vs Florida Prediction
The current betting odds have Florida State listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida State has looked really good this season with their 11-0 record overall and their 8-0 conference record. They are also 4-0 in their road games this season but the story of this game is how FSU lost their starting QB Jordan Travis to a season ending injury in their last game against North Alabama. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked great this season with their 5-6 record overall and their 3-5 conference record. They were playing great at the beginning of the season but they started to fold as their schedule got tougher in conference play and now they could also be without their starting QB Graham Mertz who also got injured in their last game. Florida needs the win in this game to try and become bowl eligible but their chances are really bleak if Mertz misses this game. Florida State may be without their starting QB but Tate Rodemaker still came in to get the job done last week and there is also so much talent all over this roster that they can still pull of the win here and finish their season on a good note. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida State to cover the spread in this game.
Florida State Florida Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 25, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Florida State 35 Florida 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Florida State Seminoles: 9-4 ATS in road games. 6-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 64-38 ATS after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. 9-4 UNDER in road games. 26-15 UNDER against SEC opponents. 10-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Florida Gators: 14-23 ATS in all games. 5-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 3-8 ATS off 2 straight losses to conference rivals allowing 31 points or more. 8-3 OVER in all games. 6-1 OVER off 1 or more straight overs. 11-6 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses.
Key Injuries
Florida State Seminoles: J. Travis (QB) day-to-day - Leg. D. Williamson (WR) day-to-day - Undisclosed. H. Williams (WR) day-to-day - Foot. D. Jackson Jr. (DL) out for season - Eligibility.
Florida Gators: G. Mertz (QB) out for season - Collarbone. J. Pyburn (LB) day-to-day - Lower Body. A. Jean (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. J. Odom (TE) Out indefinitely - Concussion. C. Douglas (WR) Late Nov - Leg. K. Wilson (S) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. S. James (LB) out for season - Knee. C. Jones (OL) out for season - Redshirt. K. Zipperer (TE) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Miller III (QB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. C. Carroll (RB) out for season - Knee. J. Boone (DL) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"It's hard any time you see any player go down, but obviously, Jordan is so important to this team. Not just as the quarterback, but just who he is and what he stands for." - Mike Norvell on the injury to Jordan Travis after his team’s win against North Alabama in their last game.
“He'll be out for a little bit. We'll have more information whether it's surgical or not. I think right now the belief is it may not be, but we'll need to get more images before we make that decision.” - Billy Napier on Graham Mertz after his team’s loss against Mizzou in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Florida State Seminoles
WR Wilson, Johnny
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Hill, Destyn
TE Morlock, Kyle
TE Bell, Jaheim
QB Travis, Jordan
RB Benson, Trey
RB Toafili, Lawrance
Florida Gators
WR Jackson, Kahleil
WR Wilson III, Eugene
WR Pearsall, Ricky
TE Hansen, Hayden
TE Boardingham, Arlis
QB Mertz, Graham
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
Statistical Leaders
Florida State Seminoles
Passing: J. Travis (2755)
Rushing: T. Benson (743)
Receiving: K. Coleman (615)
Touchdowns: T. Benson (12)
Florida Gators
Passing: G. Mertz (2878)
Rushing: T. Etienne (710)
Receiving: R. Pearsall (953)
Touchdowns: T. Etienne (9)
Coaches:
Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (4th season)
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
