Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/14/2025

by Rod Pearson

Monday, May 12, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Where to Watch:  ESPN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Panthers -142, Leafs +120; Over/Under:  5.5 goals
Bet365:  Moneyline:  Panthers -140, Leafs +120; Over/Under:  6 goals
BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Panthers -145, Leafs +120; Over/Under:  6 goals

Season Record

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)
Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Recent Form
Florida Panthers:  6-4-0 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs:  6-2-2 last 10



Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Preview and Analysis


The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 20-19-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one at home 2-0. Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, and Matthew Tkachuk each led the team in assists with 1 while Sam Reinhart led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 23 shots with 23 saves and a 1.000 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.


The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 27-13-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one on the road 2-0. No one on the team scored a goal for them or recorded an assist in that one. John Tavares led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 37 shots with 35 saves and a .946 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.


Panthers vs Maple Leafs Prediction

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. This series is all tied up 2-2 after the Panthers won game 4 at home. The Panthers made it a 2-2 series with a 2-0 win over the Maple Leafs in the 4th game of this series and now they have some momentum going into Toronto. It wasn't looking good for the Panthers early on as they fell behind 2-0 in this series with 2 road losses in the first 2 games, and they didn't play well in those games either. They even struggled in the 3rd game at home as they needed OT to win that game against the Maple Leafs, but they got the win in game 3 and have now won 2 games in a row with some momentum on their side. The Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions for a reason and they didn't quit after falling behind 2-0 in the series. They fought hard to come back at home and now they are going to carry that momentum into this game as the pressure is starting to build for the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs don't have a ton of experience making deep runs in the playoffs either so the Panthers can take advantage of that here. This is a really big game in the series and the Panthers will bring their best effort to turn the table on the Maple Leafs in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game. 

Panthers Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, May 14, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Panthers 3 Leafs 2.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Florida Panthers Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

NHL Betting Trends


Florida Panthers: 50-31 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline as a road favorite of -200 or less. 47-33 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 169-114 (+9.9 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 49-30 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Toronto Maple Leafs: 81-54 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 61-50 (-16.8 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 29-33 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp. 6-3 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs.

Key Injuries


Florida Panthers:  None.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  A. Stolarz (G) Day To Day - Upper Body. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.


Notable Quotes


“We’re mindful that it is one game. I don’t believe in momentum when the puck drops on the next game. We’re going to need to fight hard to get back to what was a pretty well-played game by our team." - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Maple Leafs in game 4 of this series on Sunday.


“He was great, played an excellent game. He was a big reason that it was only 1-0 (going into the third). In the end, I really liked our physicality, our compete. Guys are playing hard. This is a tough series. They’re a very good team." - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Panthers in game 4 of this series on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


Florida Panthers
LW Evan Rodrigues
C Aleksander Barkov
RW Sam Reinhart
LD Gustav Forsling
RD Aaron Ekblad
G Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Matthew Knies
C Auston Matthews
RW Mitchell Marner
LD Jake McCabe
RD Christopher Tanev
G Joseph Woll

Statistical Leaders


Florida Panthers
Points: S. Reinhart (81)
Goals: S. Reinhart (39)
Assists: A. Barkov (51)
GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: M. Marner (102)
Goals: W. Nylander (45)
Assists: M. Marner (75)
GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Coaches:
Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)
Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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