Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/05/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Monday, May 5, 2025

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Panthers -125, Leafs +105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Panthers -125, Leafs +105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Panthers -125, Leafs +105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Florida Panthers:  7-3-0 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 20-19-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, winning that one on the road 6-3. Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett, and Carter Verhaeghe each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Eetu Luostarinen led the team in assists with 3 while Sam Reinhart led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 29 shots with 26 saves and a .896 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 27-13-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Ottawa Senators in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-2. William Nylander led the team in goals scored with 2 while Max Pacioretty and Auston Matthews each scored 1 goal for them in that one. William Nylander, Max Pacioretty, Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, Scott Laughton, and Mitchell Marner each led the team in assists with 1 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 23 shots with 21 saves and a .913 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers are coming off a series win over the Lightning in 5 games while the Maple Leafs beat out the Senators in 6 games. The Panthers didn't have the home advantage in the 1st round as they were the lower seed, but they ended that series early as they went into Tampa taking a 2-0 lead and ended up winning all 3 games played in Tampa in that series. The Maple Leafs looked like they were going to do the same in their series when they jumped out to a 3-0 lead, but they ended up losing 2 games in a row which made that series a lot close than it needed to be. The Panthers reminded everyone in the 1st round why they are the defending champions and they have already shown in these playoffs that the home advantage means nothing to them. They have the talent to go on the road and win this 1st game in the series, and they will come out strong like they did in the last round to set the tone in this series. The Maple Leafs have a really good team this year, but they almost blew that series against the Senators in the last round and they don't have the experience of making deep runs in the playoffs like the Panthers do. The Panthers will come out with their best effort from start to finish so they can flip the home advantage in this series and put the pressure on the Maple Leafs to win on the road. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game. 

Panthers Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Monday, May 5, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Panthers 3 Leafs 2.

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Florida Panthers: 50-29 (+8.1 units) on the moneyline as a road favorite of -200 or less. 19-10 (+7 units) on the moneyline after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game. 45-31 (+11.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 48-27 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 8-3 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 79-54 (-11.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 60-49 (-16.9 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 91-67 (-18.2 units) on the moneyline off a win in their previous game. 10-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is 5.5. 5-0 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs.

Florida Panthers:  None.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

"Two teams right in their prime, very competitive men. Tampa has had success, so it got nasty this year because of the playoffs last year and the fact that we're rivals, but we're also in the same place with our teams, legitimate teams." - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Lightning in game 5 of that series on Wednesday.

“It’s a huge goal, obviously. I thought he had some opportunities early, you know, he hit the post there in the first (period) maybe, had a nice play on [William Nylander’s first] goal with a good stick, broke a play up. He did a real good job for us. Veteran guy, he’s been around, he’s played in a lot of playoff games, so he came through tonight for us.” - Craig Berube after his team’s win against the Senators in game 6 of that series on Thursday.

LW Carter Verhaeghe

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Seth Jones

G Sergei Bobrovsky

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Anthony Stolarz

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Coaches:

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)