Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/04/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, May 4, 2023

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Panthers +155, Maple Leafs -180; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Panthers +165, Maple Leafs -185; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Panthers +150, Maple Leafs -185; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Florida Panthers:  42-32-8 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Florida Panthers:  5-4-1 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  7-3-0 last 10

The Panthers are entering this game finishing the regular season with 92 points, a 42-32-8 record overall, and they were 19-19-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Boston Bruins 3 games in a row and the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 4-2. Sam Bennett, Nick Cousins, Carter Verhaeghe and Brandon Montour each scored 1 goal in that game. Matthew Tkachuk led the team in assists with 3 while Brandon Montour led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 36 shots with 34 saves and a .944 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 266 goals this season averaging 3.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 213 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 27-8-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one at home 4-2. Michael Bunting and Matthew Knies each scored 1 goal in that game. Calle Järnkrok, Auston Matthews, Ryan O'Reilly, and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 1 while William Nylander led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 28 shots with 24 saves and a .857 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Leafs listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7-game series between the Panthers and the Leafs for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers are entering this game with a 1-0 series lead after stealing the 1st game of this series in Toronto. The Panthers were riding their momentum from their series win over the Bruins and they were able to come into Toronto and pull off a very important road win as the home advantage in this series has now been flipped, but that was also a very long and physical series for the Panthers and the fatigue will start to creep up on them in this series now. The Leafs were still celebrating in game 1 the fact that they finally made it past the 1st round so they weren't at their best in that 1st game, but now that they are down in the series just like they were against Tampa in the last round, they will bring a much stronger effort on home ice here and make sure they even up the series going back to Florida. The Leafs were trailing the entire night and didn't get off to a great start in that game but they will make a point to play much harder for a full 60 minutes right from the start of this game and they will even up the series as the Panthers start to feel the fatigue from their series with the Bruins. The best way to place a bet here is on the Leafs to win this game and on the puckline as they will even up the series 1-1.

Panthers Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, May 4, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 6 Panthers 3.

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Florida Panthers: 47-43 (-9.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 20-26 (-15.9 units) on the moneyline off a win or tie in their previous game. 50-29 UNDER after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. 5-0 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 13-2 (+10.3 units) on the moneyline off a home loss. 26-7 (+15.5 units) on the moneyline after 1 or more consecutive losses. 10-4 UNDER off a home loss. 25-16 UNDER after playing a home game.

Florida Panthers:  R. Lomberg (LW) Mid May - Upper Body. S. Knight (G) Out indefinitely - Personal. P. Hornqvist (RW) out for season - Concussion.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  V. Mete (D) Mid May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Mid May - Head. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

“If we’re a little fatigued because that (Bruins) series was heavy, it’s kind of our normal day. When you look at our schedule at the end of January, it was brutal. And that’s when we started to play our best hockey. So being in the mud, as we would say, we’re kind of used to it.” - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Leafs in their game on Tuesday, game 1 of this series.

“They force you to make mistakes. But I thought we made some mistakes that we didn’t necessarily make in the last series.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their game on Tuesday, game 1 of this series.

LW Verhaeghe, Carter

C Barkov, Aleksander

RW Duclair, Anthony

LD Forsling, Gustav

RD Ekblad, Aaron

G Bobrovsky, Sergei

LW Knies, Matthew

C Matthews, Auston

RW Nylander, William

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

Points: M. Tkachuk (109)

Goals: C. Verhaeghe (42)

Assists: M. Tkachuk (69)

GAA: A. Lyon (2.89)

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Coaches:

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (1st season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)