Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/30/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL 

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Panthers +105, Lightning -125; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Panthers +100, Lightning -120; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Panthers +100, Lightning -120; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  47-27-8 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Florida Panthers:  6-4-0 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-4-2 last 10

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 20-19-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, winning that one at home 4-2. Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad, Seth Jones, and Carter Verhaeghe each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Anton Lundell, Aleksander Barkov, Dmitry Kulikov, Eetu Luostarinen, Brad Marchand, and Sam Reinhart each led the team in assists with 1 while Anton Lundell, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Gustav Forsling each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 20 shots with 18 saves and a .900 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 102 points, a 47-27-8 record overall, and they were 29-8-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one on the road 4-2. Erik Černák and Mitchell Chaffee each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Guentzel, Emil Lilleberg, and Nick Perbix each led the team in assists with 1 while Victor Hedman led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 22 shots with 19 saves and a .864 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 294 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 219 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Panthers are leading this series 3-1 after winning game 4 at home. The Panthers took a 3-1 series lead with a 4-2 win over the Lightning in the 4th game and they pulled off a nice comeback win in that one. The Lightning were leading that game going into the 3rd period, but the Panthers found a way to come back and win the game. The Panthers have looked like the better team in most of these games and they have already won both road games in this series, but the Lightning did pick up some momentum in the last 2 games and they are going to bring their best effort here against their rival to keep their season alive. This is a desperate situation for the Lightning facing elimination at home so they are going to leave it all out on the ice in this one. They collapsed late in the 3rd period to lose that game after taking a lead, but they are going to be motivated to play better here after the way they played in their 2 home games to start this series. The Lightning have also looked a lot better on home ice this year with their 29-8-4 home record so they have the talent to get a win at home in this series and extend it to game 6. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Panthers Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, April 30, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Lightning 3 Panthers 1.

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Florida Panthers: 28-29 (+9.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog. 11-5 (+8.6 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 166-112 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 11-4 OVER in the first round of the playoffs. 

Tampa Bay Lightning: 141-119 (-19.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 21-26 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline off a road blowout loss by 3 goals or more. 72-81 (-26.4 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 10-5 OVER in the first round of the playoffs.

Florida Panthers:  None.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  B. Hagel (LW) Day To Day - Upper Body. O. Bjorkstrand (RW) Out - Lower Body. 

“We haven’t had a lot of these this year. They have been grinders. It has been tough. We had key guys out of the lineup. So, we don’t have the history of the comeback and that’s a little tougher. It was really important mentally to come back.’’ - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Lightning in game 4 of this series on Monday.

“It was tough losing the first two at home, so we have massive challenges ahead of us. For 115 minutes, we passed every test possible. We just had a tough 11 seconds there at the end of the game. It’s unfortunate. We played well enough to win both games, and came up a little short.’’ - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Panthers in game 4 of this series on Monday.

LW Carter Verhaeghe

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Aaron Ekblad

G Sergei Bobrovsky

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Victor Hedman

RD Janis Jérôme Moser

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Points: N. Kucherov (121)

Goals: B. Point (42)

Assists: N. Kucherov (84)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.18)

Coaches:

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)