by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 20, 2022
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Tennessee -11
FanDuel: Tennessee -10.5
BetMGM: Tennessee -10.5
Caesars: Tennessee -11
Season record
No. 20 Florida: 2-1 (0-1 SEC)
No. 11 Tennessee: 3-0
We are about to get rolling into conference season in college football. This is where the fun truly begins. And if you're trying to find the right expert handicappers to get you the right picks for those games, look no further than Kyle Hunter on a 15-5-1 run since the beginning of the season. What will next week hold? Make sure to check out Kyle's thoughts on our Best Bets page, where you can get a look at the rest of our champion handicappers and get in on the action!
Florida - Tennessee preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Florida: won 31-28 vs. South Florida
Tennessee: won 63-6 vs. Akron
The Tennessee Volunteers might be the dark horse of the SEC the way this is rolling. Sure, they give up a ton of points from time to time, but the name of the game is outscoring your opponents. For three weeks, the Vols have done just that.
The Tennessee Volunteers might be the dark horse of the SEC the way this is rolling. Sure, they give up a ton of points from time to time, but the name of the game is outscoring your opponents. For three weeks, the Vols have done just that.
Staying at home for the second week in a row following a 57-point shellacking against the Akron Zips, the No. 11 Vols open as 11-point favorites against the No. 20 Florida Gators on Saturday in Knoxville, and that’s a great number for Tennessee because they have something that the Gators don’t have: a potential star at quarterback.
I don’t want to slight what Anthony Richardson has done. He’s led the Gators to an upset win over Utah. That alone should garner some appreciation. But Richardson isn’t the kind of gamechanger at quarterback that Hendon Hooker has become at Tennessee. Part of me hasn’t believed in him in years past because it may have taken him too long to develop.
But with the Vols on the doorstep of a top-10 ranking, things appear to be on the come-up.
Hooker threw for 298 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 of 18 passing, and Jalin Hyatt caught five passes for 166 yards and two scores of his own in Tennessee’s 63-6 win over Akron at home. The big play, completely expected, dominated this game.
"It was a great team game," said Hyatt, who had scoring passes of 57 and 48 yards in the first half as the Volunteers (3-0) jumped to a 35-0 lead over the Zips (1-2). "We haven't gotten to (SEC) play yet. I'll just keep my head down and keep working."
You do that, Jalin. Good on you.
But Hooker has been great for the last year-plus, throwing a touchdown pass in 15 straight games and is three away from tying the school record. When Tennessee can get the passing and running game going, things are going to open up even more for them.
Tennessee, which finished with 676 total yards of offense, had 238 on the ground.
"Our passing game created some really big plays," Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said. "At the half, there was a lot of football left to be played. We had to start fast (in the third quarter)."
Florida had a little more of a tougher weekend than the Vols did, going down to the wire against the South Florida Bulls but winning 31-28 at home against USF. The Gators opened the year with three straight home wins with the lone loss against expected contender Kentucky.
But if not for USF botching a field goal late, things might have gone off the rails for Florida. Richardson was horrendous by completing just 10 of 18 for 112 yards and two interceptions, but the Gators still found a way to get the job done.
"We got a lot of work to do. That's very obvious," Florida coach Billy Napier said. "But credit to our team for sticking together and finding a way to win."
Florida has not been great against the spread on the road in the past three years, losing eight of their last nine and even five of their last nine straight up. The Gators have split their last 20 conference games, which also doesn’t seem to be a great look. Tennessee, meanwhile, has won eight of its last nine straight up as a home favorite. Take with that what you will.
Prediction
It’s going to come down to the quarterbacks, and considering Tennessee will have a raucous home crowd, I trust Hooker to take care of business against the Gators. Richardson isn’t ready for the big time at the moment. Tennessee by 17
Betting trends
Florida is 39-38 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
Florida is 1-9 ATS off a home win in its last 10, 4-6 straight up.
Under is 7-0 when Florida wins at home by 3 points or less the previous game.
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 following a cover as a double-digit favorite.
Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 off a home win.
Statistical leaders
Florida:
Passing: Anthony Richardson -- 423 yards, 4 INT
Rushing: Montrell Johnson Jr. -- 240 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Ricky Pearsall -- 120 yards
Tennessee:
Passing: Hendon Hooker -- 844 yards, 6 TD
Rushing: Jaylen Wright -- 231 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Jalin Hyatt -- 287 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
