by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 09, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 11, 2023
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Florida +13.5, LSU -13.5; Over/Under: 63.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Florida +14, LSU -14; Over/Under: 63 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Florida +14, LSU -14; Over/Under: 63.5 points
Season Record
Florida Gators: 5-4 (3-3) (5th place, SEC East)
LSU Tigers: 6-3 (4-2) (3rd place, SEC West)
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Florida Gators: lost their last game at home against the Arkansas Razorbacks in overtime 39-36.
LSU Tigers: lost their last game on the road against the Alabama Crimson Tide 42-28.
Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers Preview and Analysis
Florida is entering this game with a 5-4 record overall and they have a 3-3 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Arkansas 39-36 in OT. Graham Mertz was the starting QB and he completed 26/42 passes for 282 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Trevor Etienne led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. Eugene Wilson III led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 2 TDs. Jordan Castell led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Princely Umanmielen led the defense in sacks with 2. Jordan Castell came away with the only interception for them in that game.
LSU is entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Alabama 42-28. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 15/24 passes for 219 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 163 and 1 TD. Malik Nabers led the receivers with 171 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Greg Penn III led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Greg Penn III and Paris Shand each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Florida vs LSU Prediction
The current betting odds have LSU listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. LSU is 6-3 overall this season and they are 4-2 in their conference games. The season has not gone the way they wanted as they already have too many losses to really compete for anything and have lost too many big games this season. They just lost to Alabama in their last game too but now they are coming back home and will be looking to blow off some steam against a much less talented team. Florida is only 5-4 overall this season and they got off to a bit of a hot start but they have begun to fold as their schedule has gotten harder. They are only 3-3 in their conference games this year and have struggled a lot more in road games with their 1-2 road record. Florida had a really good defense to start the season too but lately they have been letting their defense go by giving up a lot more points in their games. Their offense has been a lot better in these games but they don't have the talent on their offense led by Graham Mertz to really compete with the talent on this LSU offense. LSU will be looking for a get right game here and they will get it against this Florida team starting to slip lately. The best way to place a bet here is on LSU to cover the spread in this game.
Florida LSU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 11, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is LSU 42 Florida 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Florida Gators: 13-22 ATS in all games. 4-8 ATS in road games. 2-7 ATS off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. 11-5 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 8-4 OVER in road games. 12-6 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
LSU Tigers: 12-5 ATS in home games. 7-1 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored. 7-1 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games. 9-0 OVER in all games. 8-0 OVER as a favorite. 6-0 OVER against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Florida Gators: A. Jean (WR) Ques Sat - Lower Body. J. Odom (TE) Ques Sat - Concussion. K. Wilson (S) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Zanders (TE) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. S. James (LB) out for season - Knee. C. Douglas (WR) Mid Nov - Leg. C. Jones (OL) out for season - Redshirt. K. Zipperer (TE) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Miller III (QB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Chiaokhiao-Bowman (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. C. Carroll (RB) out for season - Knee. J. Boone (DL) out for season - Knee.
LSU Tigers: J. Daniels (QB) Ques Sat - Concussion. Z. Alexander (CB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Chestnut (CB) Out indefinitely - Personal. A. Goodwin (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. G. Brooks Jr. (S) out for season - Head. J. Johnson (CB) Early Dec - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“Part of what makes him a challenge is getting the guy on the ground. We struggled to tackle the guy. ... Very evident that his legs were a factor.” - Billy Napier on KJ Jefferson after his team’s loss against Arkansas in their last game.
“We played good tonight. Good's not good enough. You have to play elite when you go on the road and play a Top 10 team.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s loss against Alabama in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Florida Gators
WR Jackson, Kahleil
WR Wilson III, Eugene
WR Pearsall, Ricky
TE Hansen, Hayden
TE Boardingham, Arlis
QB Mertz, Graham
RB Johnson Jr., Montrell
LSU Tigers
WR Thomas Jr., Brian
WR Nabers, Malik
WR Lacy, Kyren
TE Taylor, Mason
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Diggs, Logan
Statistical Leaders
Florida Gators
Passing: G. Mertz (2384)
Rushing: M. Johnson Jr. (555)
Receiving: R. Pearsall (778)
Touchdowns: M. Johnson Jr. (5)
LSU Tigers
Passing: J. Daniels (2793)
Rushing: J. Daniels (684)
Receiving: M. Nabers (1152)
Touchdowns: B. Thomas Jr. (11)
Coaches:
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (2nd season)
LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
