by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 14, 2021
Time: Noon ET, October 16, 2021
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Florida -11.5
BetMGM: Florida -12
Caesars: Florida -11.5
Season record
No. 20 Florida: 4-2 (2-2 SEC)
LSU: 3-3 (1-2 SEC)
Jack Banks went 5-2-0 last week in college football action. Catch Jack’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Florida - LSU preview and analysis
Recent form
Florida: won 42-0 vs. Vanderbilt on Oct. 9
LSU: lost 42-21 at No. 11 Kentucky on Oct. 9
It seems like forever ago when the LSU Tigers and Florida Gators were SEC contenders.
One of them will be put out of the misery on Saturday when they meet in Baton Rouge.
The Gators have alternated wins and losses over the last five weeks, capped off with a 42-0 win at homecoming over the Vanderbilt Commodores last Saturday. If you ever wanted to experience fear in this lifetime, watch an angry Dan Mullen say he wasn't pleased at halftime.
Does one really celebrate by only winning six touchdowns against Vanderbilt? Florida scored three touchdowns in the second half and didn't even need to do anything in the fourth quarter, so perhaps there are just days to coast to victory over others.
Emory Jones didn't need to kill defenses with his legs last week. His arm was plenty with 273 yards and four touchdowns. Dameon Pierce had three touchdowns, two rushing and one receiving, to pace the playmakers against one of the worst teams in the country.
The Gators are 12-8 at Death Valley dating back to 1981 and the series is 17-17 all-time in Baton Rouge. LSU won the last meeting at home 42-28, but that was with Joe Burrow and brighter times with the Tigers.
LSU is coming off a two-touchdown loss to the surging Kentucky Wildcats, a game that was over by the third quarter. Kentucky, with that defense, took a 28-7 lead through three quarters and easily covered as two-point favorites.
Tigers quarterback Max Johnson threw for 261 yards and only had one touchdown, but running back Tyrion Davis-Price led the LSU offense with 147 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. But it was the LSU defense that couldn't make stops. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis threw as many touchdowns (3) as incompletions.
Prediction
LSU has won three of the last four meetings and while one of the Tigers' rare wins last season was against a top-10 Florida team, I can't see LSU doing anything in this one. The Gators have put up at least 450 yards of offense in the last two meetings and Florida's running game will take full advantage in this game. Florida by 16
Betting trends
Florida is 14-8 against the spread since 1992 when a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.
Florida is 8-2 ATS after a stretch of winning two of three.
LSU is 38-25 ATS after a two-game stretch where they force one turnover or less.
Statistical leaders
Florida:
Passing: Emory Jones -- 1,144 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Emory Jones -- 479 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Jacob Copeland -- 370 yards, 3 TD
LSU:
Passing: Max Johnson -- 1,730 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Tyrion Davis-Price -- 287 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Kayshon Boutte -- 509 yards, 9 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Florida - LSU prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
