Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida +3, Kentucky -3; Over/Under:  46 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida +2.5, Kentucky -2.5; Over/Under:  46 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida +3, Kentucky -3; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Florida Gators:  3-1 (1-0) (3rd place, SEC East)

Kentucky Wildcats:  4-0 (1-0) (2nd place, SEC East)

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Florida Gators:  won their last game at home against the Charlotte 49ers 22-7.

Kentucky Wildcats:  won their last game on the road against the Vanderbilt Commodores 45-28.

Florida is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Charlotte 22-7. Graham Mertz was the starting QB and he completed 20/23 passes for 259 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Montrell Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 63. Ricky Pearsall led the receivers with 104 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Scooby Williams led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Shemar James, Princely Umanmielen, and Caleb Banks each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Kentucky is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Vanderbilt 45-28. Devin Leary was the starting QB and he completed 15/29 passes for 205 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Re'Mahn Davis led the team in rushing yards with 78 and 2 TDs. Barion Brown led the receivers with 105 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Andru Phillips led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Deone Walker and Darrion Henry-Young each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Maxwell Hairston came away with 2 interceptions for them while D'Eryk Jackson also came away with 1 interception in that game.

The current betting odds have Kentucky listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Kentucky is 4-0 this season and they have looked really good in all of their games. They just won their 1st road game of the season last week which was also their 1st conference game and now they come back home where they have been even better. Their defense has been great as they don't give up many points at home and their offense has also been rolling with the points scored in their games lately. Florida enters this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are also 1-0 in conference play but their 1 win came at home while Kentucky's conference win was on the road. Now the roles are reversed with Kentucky being at home and the only loss Florida has all season was their only road game. Florida is going to struggle more in this road game since Kentucky has a good defense and the Florida offense hasn't really been putting the points up in their games. Even if Kentucky struggles against this Florida defense, their defense will keep Florida's bad offense at bay while Kentucky does what they need to do to win here. The best way to place a bet here is on Kentucky to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida Kentucky Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Kentucky 28 Florida 17.

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Florida Gators: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 2-10 ATS off a home win. 4-11 ATS after playing a game at home. 8-4 UNDER off a home win. 11-4 UNDER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. 39-22 UNDER after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game.

Kentucky Wildcats: 19-10 ATS in all games. 11-6 ATS as a favorite. 12-6 ATS in home games. 8-2 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 8-3 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.

Florida Gators:  K. Eguakun (OL) day-to-day - Ankle. M. Mazzccua (OL) day-to-day - Suspension. E. Wilson III (WR) day-to-day - Collarbone. T. Livingston (TE) day-to-day - Upper Body. J. Weston (S) day-to-day - Upper Body. M. Burke (WR) day-to-day - Upper Body. T. Chiaokhiao-Bowman (WR) day-to-day - Lower Body. J. Miller III (QB) day-to-day - Shoulder. K. Zipperer (TE) day-to-day - Knee. C. Carroll (RB) out for season - Knee. C. Jones (OL) Out indefinitely - Foot. J. Boone (DL) out for season - Knee.

Kentucky Wildcats:  J. Kattus (TE) day-to-day - Undisclosed. L. Wright (RB) day-to-day - Undisclosed. J. Wilcox (RB) day-to-day - Hamstring. K. Horsey (OL) Out indefinitely - Leg. N. Hall (OL) out for season - Undisclosed. B. Christman (OL) out for season - Undisclosed.

“Are we happy with everything that happened out there? No. But we see a lot of bright spots.” - Billy Napier after his team’s win against Charlotte in their last game. 

“Getting off to a fast start on the road for an 11 o'clock kickoff was something of importance for us, and we stressed that and it was great to see. There were obviously some moments in there that are just kind of sloppy ... It gets very, I don't want to say concerning, it gets frustrating at times.” - Mark Stoops after his team’s win against Vandy in their last game.

WR Douglas, Caleb 

WR Pearsall, Ricky 

WR Jackson, Kahleil  

TE Odom, Jonathan 

QB Mertz, Graham 

RB Johnson Jr., Montrell 

WR Key, Dane 

WR Brown, Barion 

WR Robinson, Tayvion 

TE Dingle, Jordan 

TE Bates, Brenden 

QB Leary, Devin 

RB Davis, Ray 

Passing: G. Mertz (951)

Rushing: T. Etienne (329)

Receiving: R. Pearsall (362)

Touchdowns: M. Johnson Jr. (4)

Passing: D. Leary (1060)

Rushing: R. Davis (314)

Receiving: T. Robinson (283)

Touchdowns: R. Davis (7) 

Coaches:

Florida Gators: Billy Napier (2nd season)

Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Stoops (11th season)