Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/25/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Sunday, Nov 20, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Where to watch: ABC

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Florida State -9.5
FanDuel: Florida State -8.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Florida State -9.5

Season record
Florida: 6-5
No. 19 Florida State: 8-3

The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 20-8-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-14-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 12-6-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!

Florida - Florida State preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Florida: lost 31-24 at Vanderbilt
Florida State: won 49-17 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

You could not ask for a more respectable finish to a season than what the Florida State Seminoles have put together. Four straight victories and a top 20 ranking in the College Football Playoff has this looking like the most successful season Florida State has had in a long time.

the Seminoles will close the regular season on Friday against the Florida Gators, a team that has vastly underperformed all season long and is skirting right by to bowl eligibility. And given how Florida State has not just won games the last month, but has dominated every time it's touched the field, there should be no different with Florida State possibly pulling off a fifth straight win and seriously giving chase to a 10-win season.

Florida State is coming off a 49-17 victory over the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. The Seminoles jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and didn’t look back after that. Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis threw for 112 yards and a touchdown while also running for two touchdowns in the dominant victory. It was so lopsided that Florida State needed only 440 total yards of offense in order to actually put the win away less than 12 minutes into the game.

It has been a very long time since Florida State was in a position to be a good football team again. It might not be the program that's on the same level as Clemson, or even this year North Carolina, but it has all the makings of being a really good team down the road if this is the starting point of how far this team can go. And I have no doubt based on their defense over the last month that this can be a sustainable act going forward.

Meanwhile, it has been an abysmal season for Florida. The Gators started the year were they program-defining win over Utah and since that time have faltered tremendously down the stretch. Sure, they were able to get wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina, which looks very good now considering how badly South Carolina beat Tennessee over the weekend, but to go on the road and lose to a program that has been mired in just ridiculousness over the last few years says a lot about the current state of the Gators.

Florida lost Vanderbilt 31-24 this past weekend and by law if you lose to Vanderbilt under any circumstances you are relegated to the Sun Belt. Somehow by the grace of everything, Florida wasted a 400-yard effort from Anthony Richardson. Let that sink in for a moment. Anthony Richardson finished a game with 400 yards passing, and Florida still lost. Anytime Richardson can throw for over 200 that is usually a good sign for Florida. Instead, the Gators fell behind 28-12 in the third quarter and had to make a late rally in order to make it a one-score game.

That in a nutshell is how bad Florida has been this year. And I need no further explanation.

Prediction


It feels like it's been awhile since Florida State has actually dominated this rivalry, but I feel like now is the perfect time for that to happen. Florida state's defense has been great over the last month and I have no doubt that it will continue to be that great again trying to slow down Richardson. Florida State by 17 

Betting trends


Florida is 7-2 ATS as an underdog the last three years.

Florida is 18-15 ATS as a road underdog the last three years.

Florida State is 89-83 ATS as a home favorite since 1992.

Statistical leaders


Florida:
Passing: Anthony Richardson -- 2,351 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Montrell Johnson Jr. -- 742 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Justin Shorter -- 577 yards, 2 TD

Florida State:
Passing: Jordan Travis -- 2,526 yards, 21 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Trey Benson -- 854 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Johnny Wilson -- 649 yards, 5 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Florida Gators - Florida State Seminoles prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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