Five Teams Who Could Be Overrated Entering This Season

by Kyle Hunter

Sunday, Jul 30, 2023
In less than 30 days, we’ll have college football back on our televisions. The sports betting world is better when college football is an option! There’s nothing like the weeks leading up to college football. College football has been a strength for me (70% on my CFB selections last year and 66% two years ago). 

A couple of days ago I took a look at five teams who could be underrated heading into this season. Now, let’s take a look at five teams who could be overrated going into this season based on their ATS success from a year ago. 

Tulane Green Wave (12-2 ATS) I love Coach Fritz and that will definitely make me hesitate to fade this Tulane team. Three things about this team make me think they will be overvalued. First, there are very few teams who are able to go 12-2 ATS in a season. That kind of success gets noticed by bettors all over the world. Second, they are coming off a last second upset of USC in their last game. That is the last thing bettors will think of coming into this season. Finally, Tulane really lost a lot of key production. The linebacker spot takes a big hit without Anderson and Williams. Tyjae Spears won’t be easy to replace at RB either.

Troy Trojans (11-3 ATS) Troy was able to go 11-3 ATS last year despite having a very poor offense. They couldn’t run the football, and they lost their starting quarterback from a year ago. Troy will still be a good Sun Belt team, but I think it will be hard for them to keep covering spreads. Carlton Martial finished his Troy career as the FBS leader in career tackles. He’s obviously a massive loss at linebacker. The Trojans still have weaknesses on offense, and now the defense lost its best player too. 

Tennessee Volunteers (10-3 ATS) Josh Heupel has done a really good job with this Tennessee program. They outperformed all expectations for them a year ago up until the point that Hendon Hooker was injured. Joe Milton steps in as the starting quarterback. Milton claims he can throw the ball 90 yards. I want to see it to believe it. Also, Milton isn’t nearly as accurate of a passer as Hooker. There were a lot of key losses at the wide receiver position as well. A good team, but there isn’t likely to be a lot of value here on an ATS basis. 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5 ATS) Mitch Griffis might do alright as the quarterback at Wake Forest, but it is a big downgrade from Sam Hartman to the guys who Wake Forest will try under center this year. Dave Clawson is a good coach, so it won’t surprise me if Wake Forest improves a lot by the end of the season. Early on though this team might be overvalued. The offensive line is a big weakness. They averaged only 3.4 ypc last year, and now they are without Hartman and star WR A.T. Perry. Five of their top six defensive linemen from last year are gone as well. It will take some time. 

Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5 ATS) Chase Brown was the star running back for Illinois, and the Fighting Illini are going to miss him a lot. They’ll probably miss defensive coordinator Ryan Walters even more. It’s my opinion that Walters really led the Illinois turnaround the last couple years. The job he did with the Illinois defense was nothing short of fantastic. Illinois lost three key players from the secondary, and they’ll have to try to put it back together without their star coordinator now. 

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