Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres (UFC Baku) Preview and Picks

The UFC returns to Azerbaijan for the second time this weekend, taking place at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku. This marks the UFC's second visit to the country as part of a multi-year deal for annual "Fight Nights" through 2028. Last year's event was held at the Baku Crystal Hall. It included some interesting fights including Azerbaijani native Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta, which was the "fight of the night." Sadykhov scored a 2nd round TKO victory.

Last year's main event featured former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jamahal Hill against former title challenger Khalil Rountree Junior. Rountree won by a decisive unanimous decision. The co-main event saw another Azerbaijan native Rafael Fiziev win 30-27 on all three judges' scorecards against Ignacio Bahamondes. Fiziev is back, this time in the main event against Manuel Torres. Sadykhov also returns. Let's take a closer look at what promises to be another exciting card.

The Main Event: Rafael Fiziev -115 vs Manuel Torres
Even factoring in his win here last year, the 33-year-old Fiziev (13-5) is just 1-4 in his past five fights. Still, those losses came against top-tier opponents including Justin Gaethje (twice), Mateusz Gamrot and Mauricio Ruffy. Fiziev is a former Muay Thai fighter who mixes in combat sambo, boxing, Jiu Jitsu, and wrestling. Torres (17-3) is a 31-year-old Mexican fighter. He's had back-to-back wins since losing to Bahamondes, the fighter whom Fiziev beat here last year. Torres, who also has a Muay Thai background, combines a strong striking game with sharp grappling skills. 

The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +110. The pick'em line seems fair, as I see this fight as a legitimate coin flip. Torres has the more impressive record but Fiziev has faced better opponents and is fighting in his home country. I do see some value in the under 1.5 rounds, at +110. Fiziev was stopped in the second round of his last fight and 13 of Torres's last 14 fights (19 of 20 overall) finished in the first round. Play the Under.

The Co-Main Event: Shara Magomedov -360 vs. Michel Pereira

Shara "Bullet" Magomedov (16-1) is an exciting and dynamic middleweight striker from Dagestan. Blind in his right eye, Magomedov is known for spinning and creative attacks, high output, and relentless pressure. Michel Pereira (32-14), not related to Alex Pereira, hails from Brazil. He won his last fight, snapping a 3-fight losing streak.

 
The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds at -125 Magomedov is likely to win but the price is too steep. Instead, we will again focus on the total. Five of Magomedov's last six fights were decided by the judges. Two of Pereira's last four fights went the distance and another went to the fifth round. Play the Over.

Off a loss and back in front of his countrymen, Sadykhov "The Black Wolf" (11-2-1) will want to put on a good show. Only one of his past 10 fights went the distance; it was a majority draw. Camilo (10-3), a 25-year-old fighter from Brazil is likely in over his head. However, he's won seven of his past eight and should put up a good fight. No pick, just enjoy this one.

Note the early start time. The main card starts at 12:00 PM Eastern on Paramount+ with the prelims beginning at 9:00 AM.