FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018

by Nelly's Sports

FBS Coaching Change ATS Results since 2018
 
The calendar has not even turned to October yet and three major conference FBS head coaches have already been fired. In most recent seasons there are only a handful of mid-season changes at FBS schools, but last season 15 head coaches were fired or resigned before the end of the regular season as there seems to be a quickening pace for programs to get in front of the line for the next hiring cycle. 
 
Nebraska was a popular play-on team after Scott Frost was fired and there is a general perception that a coaching change might provide a spark for a program and could be a catalyst to saving the season if the move is made early. Nebraska and Arizona State both lost badly in their first games after making September coaching changes this season and the track record the past few years has a negative correlation in the games following a move, albeit with a small sample size and many circumstantial differences in each case. 
 
An argument can be made that administrators don’t necessarily want interim coaches to succeed, potentially thwarting their preferred coaching choice for the future, and in the case of the three firings this season, the move came preceding one of the most difficult games of the season rather than ahead of a more favorable stretch of the schedule. Nebraska fired Frost ahead of hosting Oklahoma, Arizona State fired Herm Edwards ahead of hosting Utah. Geoff Collins was just fired ahead of playing at Pittsburgh for a tough pairing in the transition. 
 
Below is a list of the mid-season FBS coaching changes since 2018 and the result immediately following the move. In the next game after a coaching change, those teams have gone 7-24 S/U and 10-21 ATS. Only eight teams out 29 mid-season coaching changes from 2018 and 2021 finished the season with a winning ATS record the rest of the way following making a move. 

Most schools making a mid-season coaching change are having a difficult season, so it is not a surprise that losing results continue. There is however not much support in the recent instances to suggest there is any sort of coaching change spark provided to teams, nor a valuation decrease significant enough to warrant playing on teams in this situation. It is likely best to avoid Georgia Tech this week even with an elevated underdog price and it is likely worth steering clear of backing most teams that have made a coaching change during the season. 
 
10/14/2018 Bowling Green 1-6 S/U, 2-5 ATS Mike Jinks fired
Next Game: At Ohio (+16) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49
Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-3 ATS
 
10/31/2018 Maryland 5-3 S/U, 5-3 ATS DJ Durkin fired
Next Game: At Michigan State (+3.5) S/U and ATS Loss 3-24
Record after coaching change: 0-4 S/U, 1-3 ATS 
 
11/4/2018 Kansas 3-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS David Beaty fired
Next Game: At Kansas State (+8.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 17-21
Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 3-0 ATS 
 
11/11/2018 Louisville 2-8 S/U, 1-9 ATS Bobby Petrino fired 
Next Game: Hosting NC State (+16) S/U and ATS loss 10-52
Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS
 
11/18/2018 Colorado 5-6 S/U, 5-6 ATS Mike MacIntyre fired
Next Game: At California (+11.5) S/U and ATS Loss 21-33
Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS
 
11/18/2018 Texas State 3-8 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS Everett Withers fired
Next Game: Hosting Arkansas state (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-33
Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS
 
11/18/2018 Charlotte 4-7 S/U, 6-5 ATS Brad Lambert fired
Next Game: AT Florida Atlantic (+16.5) S/U and ATS Win 27-24
Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS
 
9/30/2019 Rutgers 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Chris Ash fired
Next Game: Hosting Maryland (+14) S/U and ATS Loss 7-48
Record after coaching change: 1-7 S/U, 3-5 ATS 
 
11/3/2019 Florida State 4-5 S/U, 3-5-1 ATS Willie Taggart fired
Next Game: At Boston College (+1) S/U and ATS Win 38-31
Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS (lost bowl game) 
 
11/10/2019 Arkansas 2-8 S/U, 2-8 ATS Chad Morris fired
Next Game: At LSU (+41) S/U Loss and ATS Win 20-56
Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 2-0 ATS 
 
11/22/2019 UNLV 2-8 S/U 4-6 ATS Tony Sanchez was fired but remained to coach the final two games – which were both S/U and ATS wins 
 
9/7/2020 Southern Miss 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS - Jay Hopson resigned
Next Game: Hosting Louisiana Tech (-7) S/U and ATS Loss 30-31
Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 4-5 ATS 
 
11/7/2020 Utah State 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS - Gary Andersen fired
Next Game: Hosting Fresno State (+11) S/U and ATS Loss 16-35
Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS
 
11/16/2020 South Carolina 2-5 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Will Muschamp fired
Next Game: Hosting Missouri (+5.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-17
Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 0-3 ATS 
 
11/29/2020 Vanderbilt 0-8 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Derek Mason fired
Next Game: Hosting Tennessee (+15.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-42
Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS
 
9/6/2021 Connecticut 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS - Randy Edsall resigned
Next Game: Hosting Purdue (+35) S/U and ATS Loss 0-49
Record after coaching change: 1-9 S/U, 6-4 ATS 
 
9/14/2021 USC 1-1 S/U, 1-1 ATS - Clay Helton fired
Next Game: At Washington State (-3.5) S/U and ATS Win 45-14 
Record after coaching change: 3-7 S/U, 3-7 ATS 
 
9/26/2021 Georgia Southern 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS - Chad Lunsford fired
Next Game: Hosting Arkansas State (-2) S/U and ATS Win 59-33
Record after coaching change: 2-6 S/U, 5-3 ATS
 
10/19/2021 LSU 4-3 S/U, 3-4 ATS - Ed Orgeron resigned
Next Game: At Mississippi (+9.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-31 
Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 2-2-1 ATS 
 
10/20/2021 Washington State 4-3 S/U, 4-3 ATS - Nick Rolovich fired
Next Game: Hosting BYU (+3.5) S/U Loss and ATS Win 19-21 
Record after coaching change: 3-3 S/U, 4-2 ATS 
 
10/25/2021 Texas Tech 5-3 S/U, 4-4 ATS - Matt Wells fired
Next Game: At Oklahoma (+19) S/U and ATS Loss 21-52 
Record after coaching change: 2-3 S/U, 3-2 ATS
 
10/31/2021 TCU 3-5 S/U,1-7 ATS - Gary Patterson resigned
Next Game: Hosting Baylor (+7.5) S/U and ATS Win 30-28
Record after coaching change: 2-2 S/U, 1-3 ATS
 
11/4/2021 Akron 2-7 S/U, 4-5 ATS - Tom Arth fired
Next Game: At Western Michigan (+25) S/U Loss and ATS Win 40-45
Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS 
 
11/8/2021 Massachusetts 1-8 S/U, 3-6 ATS - Walt Bell fired
Next Game: Hosting Maine (+4.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-35
Record after coaching change: 0-3 S/U, 1-2 ATS 
 
11/14/2021 Washington 4-6 S/U, 3-7 ATS Jimmy Lake – fired – had been suspended for final game 
Next Game: At Colorado (-6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 17-20 
Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS 
 
11/15/2021 Florida International 1-9 S/U, 2-8 ATS Butch Davis fired
Next Game: Hosting North Texas (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 7-49
Record after coaching change: 0-2 S/U, 0-2 ATS
 
11/16/2021 Virginia Tech 5-5 S/U, 4-6 ATS Justin Fuente fired
Next Game: At Miami, FL (+7) S/U and ATS Loss 26-38 
Record after coaching change: 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS (lost bowl game) 
 
11/21/2021 Florida 5-6 S/U, 3-8 ATS Dan Mullen fired
Next Game: Hosting Florida State (-3.5) S/U Win and ATS Loss 24-21
Record after coaching change: 1-1 S/U, 0-2 ATS (lost bowl game) 
 
11/23/2021 New Mexico State 1-10 S/U, 6-5 ATS Doug Martin fired
Next Game: Hosting Massachusetts (-7) S/U and ATS Win 44-27
Record after coaching change: 1-0 S/U, 1-0 ATS
 
11/21/2021 Troy 5-6 S/U, 4-7 ATS Chip Lindsey fired
Next Game: At Georgia State (+6.5) S/U and ATS Loss 10-37
Record after coaching change: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS
 
9/11/2022 Nebraska 1-2 S/U, 0-3 ATS Scott Frost fired
Next Game: Hosting Oklahoma (+10.5) S/U and ATS Loss 14-49
 
9/18/2022 Arizona State 1-2 S/U, 1-2 ATS Herm Edwards fired
Next Game: Hosting Utah (+16.5) S/U and ATS Loss 13-34
 
9/25/2022 Georgia Tech 1-3 S/U, 1-3 ATS Geoff Collins fired
Next Game: At Pittsburgh (+22) October 1 

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