The League Phase for Europa League has concluded and the competition has become a bit clearer now. Before changing the format of the competition, there was a good chance that the Europa League winner would be a team that did not even start the year in the competition due to the Champions League drop downs. With the new format, there will be no new additions now that the League Phase has concluded so the picture has certainly become clearer. Now with the knockout rounds set to start on Thursday, February 19, it is time to see who has the best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season.
To Win Outright
Aston Villa +275: Aston Villa is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 2nd place with a 7-0-1 record and actually lost the League Phase on goal differential at +8, scoring 14 goals and allowing 6 goals in their 8 matches. They did not have a great start to the season, but they turned things around early on and they are now currently sitting in 3rd place in the Premier League. They have the quality to beat anyone in this competition and they play in the strongest league as well, but this is still not a great price to take them as a favorite. They are the best team left in the competition, but there is not a huge gap between them and some of the clubs from the other top leagues in Europe. Aston Villa is also sitting in 3rd place in the Premier League so finishing in the top 4 is going to be a priority for them, and they are only 7 points behind Arsenal as well so they are still in the title race and a lot can happen with 12 matches left in the season. This competition does not have the prestige of Champions League either so if Aston Villa finds themselves in the Premier League Title race late in the season, this competition will not be a focus for them. Aston Villa is not a bad option to win this tournament this season, but this is not a great price for them as the favorite when there is a chance that the competition is not a priority for them, and there are other quality teams as well. There is not a lot of value in taking Aston Villa at this price.
Roma +700: Roma is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 8th place with a 5-1-2 record and a +7 GD, scoring 13 goals and allowing 7 goals in their 8 matches. Their defense has been very good in this competition, but their attack has been a problem as they do not score many goals and they were very fortunate to sneak into the top 8 in the end. They ended the League Phase with a 1-1 draw against Panathinaikos and were fortunate to have the GD over Genk for that 8th spot. They are currently sitting in 5th place in Serie A, but they do not have the quality of some of the top teams in the league and that attack has been a problem for them in Serie A as well. This is not a bad price for them as they certainly are one of the better teams in the competition, but they have already shown that they can struggle with their performance in the League Phase and they are not a very consistent team either. There is some value in taking Roma at this price as they do have a very good defense to lean on, but they are going to run into trouble eventually with that weaker attack as it could lead to more penalties after draws where anything can happen. Considering the other options in the tournament, there is not a lot of value in taking Roma at this price.
Olympique Lyonnais +800: Lyon is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 1st place with a 7-0-1 record and won the League Phase over Aston Villa with a +13 GD. They had the best attack in the League Phase with 18 goals scored in their 8 matches and they had the 3rd best defense as well with 5 goals allowed in those. They have been very good in their domestic league as well, currently sitting in 3rd place, and they have been in great form as well. Both their attack and their defense has been very good in Ligue 1 this season as well so this is a very well rounded team with a lot of quality that has been performing well in all competitions. Lyon is one of the better teams in this competition and they have already shown that they can dominate the competition. This is also a competition that Lyon is going to be focused on winning as they play in a league that does not have as many Champions League positions available, so they will be pushing for the auto-bid for winning this tournament. Lyon has also been in the gutter for quite some time in recent years, but they are finally having some success again so winning Europa League would be great for their season. Lyon is going to be a force in this competition and make a deep run so this is a great price for them. There is a lot of value in taking Lyon at this price.
FC Porto +900: Porto is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 5th place with a 5-2-1 record and a +6 GD, scoring 13 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 6 goals in those. They have been very good in their own domestic league as well, currently sitting at the top of the league, and their defense has been great as well. They have only allowed 7 goals in their 22 league matches this season and that has translated to the European stage. They have also scored 43 goals in their 22 matches though, and that has not translated into Europa League as that attack has not been great. That attack is going to be a problem for them as they did struggle against better defenses in the League Phase, and their 1 loss came against Nottingham Forest who has not been great in the Premier League this season, but still plays in a much stronger league. Porto’s defense can still take them deep into this tournament though, and they do have experience as a club performing well in these competitions. Porto has a lot of quality as they are dominating Portugal this year and this price does make them a good 2nd option to win this competition, but they are still not the best option to go with. There is some value in taking Porto at this price.
Real Betis +1000: Real Betis is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 4th place with a 5-2-1 record and a +6 GD, scoring 13 goals and allowing 7 goals in their 8 matches. Their defense has been great in the competition, but their attack has been a problem and they are going to get themselves into trouble with that weaker attack. They have been playing well in La Liga this season as they are currently sitting in 5th place, but do not have the quality of the top teams in the league and their defense has not been as good in La Liga either. They do have the only win over Lyon in the League Phase and they ended the League Phase in great form, but they have also been very inconsistent all season and struggle to put multiple wins together. Teams from La Liga do have a very good record in Europa League over the years, but Real Betis actually had the chance to win this competition last year and lost 4-1 to Chelsea in the Final. Real Betis is certainly not a bad option as they were in the Final last season and do have the quality to make a deep run, but they are not consistent enough as a team to put full trust in them. This is still not a bad price for them though as a 2nd option to win the tournament. There is some value in taking Real Betis at this price.
Bologna +1200: Bologna is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 10th place with a 4-3-1 record and a +7 GD, scoring 14 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 7 goals in those. They were playing well to end the League Phase, but they put themselves in a big hole with a poor start and were not able to climb into the top 8 either. They won their last match of the League Phase 3-0 against Maccabi Tel Aviv, but they have been in awful form in their recent matches. They did not dominate the League Phase in Europa League nor have they been dominating Serie A, currently sitting in the middle of the table. Serie A is not a very strong league this season either so they are going to struggle to go deep in this competition as they have already shown some troubles. They also have to go up against Brann in the play-off round since they did not finish in the top 8, so they continue to make their own path tougher. There is no real value in taking Bologna at this price.
Nottingham Forest +1400: Nottingham Forest is coming into the knockout rounds as the team with the next best chance at taking home the Europa League Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase in 13th place with a 4-2-2 record and a +8 GD, scoring 15 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 7 goals. They performed well in Europa League this year, but not well enough to finish in the top 8. Now they have to play against a very tough opponent in Fenerbahce in the play-off round, and that will not be easy for them. They have already been struggling a lot this season and have been one of the worst teams in their own domestic league. They are currently sitting in 17th place in the Premier League and they are only 3 points above the relegation zone as well. They are still one of the better teams in this competition with the quality they have, but they have not been in good form all season and have only made their own path harder with the play-off round. They are also in a position in the Premier League where they could be battling relegation in the final matches of the season, so even if they do make a deep run in this competition, it is still not Champions League so they will have no problem turning their focus away from this tournament if it means staying up in the Premier League for another season. Nottingham Forest is in an awful situation right now and they are not going to be able to make a deep run in this competition. There is no real value in taking Nottingham Forest at this price.
Recommendation
There are some good quality teams left in this competition from different leagues and even with Aston Villa being such a heavy favorite right now, the tournament is still wide open. There is some good value to be had with some of the other teams and there is no real dominant team right now. Considering their performance in all competitions, Lyon at +800 is the best option to go with, followed by Porto at +900 or Real Betis at +1000 as solid 2nd options. Real Betis was in the Final last season though and La Liga teams have a very good record in Europa League as well, so more of a lean on Real Betis at +1000 as the 2nd option over Porto. Lyon at +800 has the most value for a team to win Europa League this season, followed by Real Betis at +1000 and Porto at +900.