EPL and Bundesliga: Latest Look!

With the “Big 4” European leagues off this week, it’s time for my monthly look at what is going on in soccer. 

This one is going to be a bit more detailed, so I’ll be breaking it up into two separate articles. Up first: the English Premier League and German Bundesliga

Again, there’s no drama as to who will finish in the top three spots: Manchester City (70 points), Liverpool (69) and Chelsea (59) will all be returning next season to the Champions League, where all three are currently still playing in this year’s quarterfinals.

There is a bit of drama for the top spot as I give Liverpool an excellent shot at unseating Man City and winning the league. This is something that few thought possible, even as recently as last month. Liverpool has the better goal differential (+55 vs. +50) and has won nine straight EPL matches while keeping seven clean sheets. They’ve outscored the competition 23-2 during the unbeaten run! 

Interestingly enough, Man City and Liverpool will square off in next month’s FA Cup semi finals. That means the two sides will be doing battle on consecutive weekends as they also meet in league play on April 10th. 

The fourth spot in the EPL remains wide open with Tottenham becoming a full-fledged player due to four wins in their last five fixtures. Arsenal remains fourth, however, two points ahead of the Spurs with one match in hand. Arsenal has two matches in hand compared to Manchester United (6th place)  and West Ham (7th). Man U, fresh off being eliminated from the Champions League (by Atletico Madrid) is now even more desperate for the fourth place finish. Of the four “legit” contenders for the fourth spot, West Ham is the only one still playing European football (Europa League), which may have them at a disadvantage, although winning the Europa League would obviously be a “panacea.” Sorry Wolves’ fans, but I happen to think your team is a pretender. There are 12 sides that sit higher on xPts (expected points) in the table. 

If there’s a Premier League side to keep an eye on in the middle of the table, it’s Crystal Palace, who is in 12th place but 9th on xPts. The Eagles are also in the FA Cup semis (with Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) and could be the most motivated side in that particular competition as the winner gains automatic entry into next year’s Europa League. None of the other three care much about that. 

Now to the bottom and the race to avoid relegation. This has gotten interesting. For quite some time now, last place Norwich City has been earmarked for a return to the second tier of English football (aka The Championship). The Canaries are last the Premier League by almost every metric. The next two worst goal differentials belong to Watford (-26) and Leeds United (-33), but the latter just picked up a huge win over the Wolves (thanks to a red card) and are now seven points clear of the drop zone. I think the key factor in this race is that both Everton (25 points) and Burnley (21) have three matches in hand compared to Leeds and two over Watford, the sides they are competing against to avoid relegation. As of now, I think it ends up as Watford and Burnley that join Norwich in The Championship next season.

As I wrote last month, I am extremely confident that Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will finish as the top four. Bayern should be running away with a 10th straight Bundesliga title, but has instead kept things interesting with two recent draws. But they will finish first (GD gap between them and Dortmund is massive, +53 and +29), although Bayern does have the Champions League to still worry about. Leipzig is still alive in the Europa League as well. Winning that competition would mean they do not have to be concerned about finishing top four here in the Bundesliga, as they’d gain automatic entry into next year’s UCL. 

The race for other European spots (go to the fifth and sixth place finishers) is very interesting. Currently, those spots are occupied by Freiburg and Hoffenheim, who are tied with and just one point off Leipzig for fourth. But both chasing sides suffered bad results this past weekend. Eintracht Frankfurt, a top five finisher last season here in Germany, is also still alive in the Europa League and may view that as their path to glory. Either Union Berlin or Mainz could move up into the top six. 

Note that Leipzig, Freiburg and Union Berlin are also all still alive in the DFB-Pokal (semis next month). Facing a second tier side in the semis, Freiburg looks to have a clear path to the Finals. The winner of the DFB-Pokal is automatically in next season's Europa League and that could have an effect on motivation the final month of the Bundesliga season. 

The relegation battle here is a little different because it’s only the bottom two that get automatically sent down to the 2. We’ve known for a while that Greuther Furth is going to be one and done in the top flight. I still believe that Hertha Berlin will join them, even though they just won last weekend to move out of the bottom two. I now think the team most likely to finish in the relegation playoff spot is Arminia Bielefeld, who is still lowest on xPts in the entire league. To clarify, finishing third from the bottom means you take on the third place finisher from the Bundesliga 2 in a one-match scenario to remain in the top flight.