Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Monday, December 20th, 2021

Venue: Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, Indiana

Where to Watch:  ESPN 3

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Valp -6.5; O/U 138

Caesars:  Spread: NL

VegasInsider:  Spread: Valp -6.5; O/U 138

BetOnline: Spread: NL

 

E. Mich: 0-0 conf, 5-5 overall (Mid-American)

Val: 0-1 conf, 5-6 overall (Missouri Valley)

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are on a three-game winning streak.  In that stretch they beat FIU, Niagara, and Northwood (Mich) and only covered the spread once  They have lost to DePaul, #12 Michigan State, UC San Diego, Northern Kentucky, and Indiana.  This marks them clearly as the type of opponents that can lose any matchup at any time… and can struggle to cover a spread when they are the underdogs.

Valparaiso lost their last game to Charlotte by a nail biting 68-67. Prior to that they had beaten Western Michigan and a place called East-West University.  They are also not having a great year with losses to Drake, Coastal Carolina, Stanford, Toledo, and the UIC Flames.  They keep getting beat.

This is a matchup of non-conference opponents that aren’t going to the NCAA tournament and maybe not the NIT.  The betting opportunity when teams like this play is to look for betting trends that favor an easy chance to cash against your book.  Maybe the O/U looks easy?… maybe the spread is set too high? Let’s look at the numbers.

 

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EMU is 5-5 on the season, but 6-3 ATS.  They have logged 6 Overs and 3 Unders.  They are a dismal 0-5 in road games.

Valp is 5-6 on the season, but 4-5 ATS.  They have notched 5 Overs and 4 Unders.  They are a disappointing 2-3 in home games.

EMU is 139th in ppg with 73.7, 144th in rebounds with 33.9, and 349th in AST/TO ratio with 0.7.  The Eagles desperately need a ball handler or two who will make solid decisions and set the pace.  An AST/TO ratio this low on a team that is 5-5 (with some of those wins against absolute nobodies) means they are always a mistake away from losing any game or any lead.  They also aren’t great shooters.  They are 263rd in FG%, 207th in 3PT%, and a lousy 210th in FT% (69.4).  Numbers like these point to a team without a real floor general.  No one is in charge or accountable.

Valp is 142nd in PTS with 73.5, 257th in rebounds with 31.4 per, and 75th in AST/TO ratio.  These teams are razor close in points and on the boards… The Crusaders take care of the ball better.  They are 64th in FG%, 194th in 3PT%, and 161st in FT% with a barely passing 71.2.  

EMU is 332nd on defense.  They allow a generous 77.8 ppg.

Valp is 174th on defense.  They allow a less generous 67.5 ppg.

Our prediction for Monday, December 20th, is… Valparaiso 75 - Eastern Michigan 64

Valparaiso should take this game easily and cover any spread less than -10.  I would avoid any O/U number.

 

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E. Mich is 1-0 ATS versus Valparaiso over the last 3 seasons.

That game went Over.

E Mich is 2-0 ATS versus Valparaiso since 1997.

EMU: Colin Golson JR, Monty Scott, Noah Farrakhan, Darion Spottsville, Mo Nijie

Valp: Thomas Kithier, Sheldon Edwards, Trevor Anderson, Ben Krikke, Kobe King

EMU

Points: Noah Farrakhan 17.1

Assists: Monty Scott 2.7

Rebounds: Nate Scott 5.2

Steals: Darion Spottsville 1.3

Blocks: Mo Nijie 1.0

Valp

Points: Kobe King 18

Assists: Trevor Anderson 2.5

Rebounds: Thomas Kithier 6.6

Steals: Sheldon Edwards 1.2

Blocks: Sheldon Edwards 1.5

EMU: Stan Heath.  Coach Heath is on the first year of this job.  He was last year’s NBA G League Champion coach with the Lakeland Magic.  He has been home since he earned his Bachelor’s in social science from Eastern Michigan way back in 1987.

Valp: Matt Lottich.  Coach Lottich took over the head coaching job for Valparaiso one day after Bryce Drew left in 2016.  He was a player at stanford 200-2004 and followed that with a decade of playing internationally in New Zealand, Japan, Germany, you name it.