by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Dec 19, 2022Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: San Jose State -4; San Jose State -180, Eastern Michigan +155; O/U 54
FanDuel: San Jose State -3.5; San Jose State -188, Eastern Michigan +155; O/U 53.5
BetMGM: San Jose State -3.5; San Jose State -175, Eastern Michigan +145; O/U 54
Caesars: San Jose State -4; San Jose State -179, Eastern Michigan +150; O/U 54
Season record
Eastern Michigan: 8-4
San Jose State: 7-4
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Eastern Michigan - San Jose State preview, analysis and prediction
Eastern Michigan analysis
The Eastern Michigan Eagles closed the regular season on a strong note to reach its fourth bowl game in five years. Hopefully for them, the string of luck changes this time around because EMU hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1987 California Bowl. Dating back to as far as 2016, the Eagles have lost all of their bowl games since.
But this is the best EMU team, record-wise, in what seems like team history. The eight wins are the most from the Eagles since that 1987 team and it’s only the third such season of at least eight wins on record since 1977.
How Eastern Michigan has been able to get that done is by way of solid offense and a stout pass defense. The Eagles give up 209 passing yards a game, good for 39th best in the country. That’ll come in handy against a San Jose State passing offense that averages 263 yards per game through the air.
But the Eastern Michigan success is predicated by their star running back/fullback. And if you have someone named Samson patrolling the backfield, you’re in good hands. Samson Evans leads the way with 1,084 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
Eastern Michigan finished strong in both the spread and outright. The Eagles finished 4-0-1, the lone push being 6-point favorites in a 34-28 road win at Akron on Nov. 8. Only one cover, the week before in a 3-point loss to Toledo, came with Eastern Michigan as 4-point underdogs. Considering Eastern Michigan finished 6-5-1 ATS in the regular season, that’s a strong finish.
San Jose State analysis
The San Jose State Spartans, unlike their EMU counterparts, did not have a strong end to the season. The books were probably the worst of the two. San Jose State is coming into the Potato Bowl having lost six in a row against the spread, and the results have been jumbled all over the place.
San Jose State has been double-digit favorites in three of the last six, but only won by one score against Nevada (-24.5), Colorado State (-23.5) and Hawaii (-16). Even against a banged-up Fresno State team, the Spartans were laying 7.5 at Fresno and lost 17-10. The Spartans also lost outright by 16 at San Diego State as 1.5-point favorites, followed by getting 1.5 and losing at Utah State.
Yet this group is favored by 4 heading into the bowl matchup. Make it make sense, because it really doesn’t. The Spartans have been carried by one of the best quarterbacks in the Mountain West this year in Chevan Cordeiro, who is nearing 3,000 yards with 20 touchdowns to only four interceptions. San Jose State isn’t a run-heavy team, but Kairee Robinson has carried the load at nearly 5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
San Jose State has just been one of those teams this year that has skirted by with not a lot of room for error. This isn’t really a good group that should be trusted under any circumstances.
Prediction
Get ready to party like it’s 1987, Eastern Michigan. The pass defense should stifle a one-dimensional San Jose State offense, and the fact that San Jose State hasn’t looked the part the last month and a half doesn’t bode well for the Mountain West group. Eastern Michigan by 10
Betting trends
San Jose State is 2-10 ATS after an ATS loss the last 2 seasons.
San Jose State is 0-6 ATS after 5 straight games of committing one turnover or less this season.
Eastern Michigan is 11-25 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in the last game since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Eastern Michigan:
Passing: Taylor Powell – 1,813 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Samson Evans – 1,084 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Tanner Knue – 592 yards, 9 TD
San Jose State:
Passing: Chevan Cordeiro – 2,884 yards, 20 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Kairee Robinson – 696 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Elijah Cooks – 983 yards, 10 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
