by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Jan 12, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
Where to watch: ACC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Duke -6
BetMGM: Duke -5.5
Caesars: Duke -6
Season record
No. 8 Duke: 12-2 (2-1 ACC)
Wake Forest: 13-3 (3-2 ACC)
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Duke - Wake Forest preview and analysis
Recent form
Duke: lost 76-74 vs. Miami on Jan. 8
Wake Forest: won 77-74 (OT) vs. Syracuse on Jan. 8
I think we all as a collective society didn’t expect the Duke Blue Devils to finish this season off in Cinderella fashion, meaning winning every game and sending Mike Krzyzewski off into the sunset happy.
I think we all as a collective society didn’t expect the Duke Blue Devils to finish this season off in Cinderella fashion, meaning winning every game and sending Mike Krzyzewski off into the sunset happy.
But the road will have bumps every now and then, as the Miami Hurricanes proved on Saturday.
No. 8 Duke will look to rebound on the road Wednesday against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, as the Blue Devils will be playing away from Cameron Indoor for the first time since their first loss of the season, Nov. 30 against No. 16 Ohio State.
Duke was supposed to hold its road conference opener on Dec. 29 at Clemson, followed by a trip to Notre Dame three days later, but the games were postponed due to COVID-19. So Duke was able to wrap up a six-game homestand with a week-and-a-half break in-between.
Enter Saturday’s game against the Hurricanes where it was about as even as it could be; tied at halftime, comes down to the final basket, shooting percentages nearly identical. Everything goes right, except Duke turned it over 17 times and opened the door for a game-winning layup from Kameron McGusty.
Paolo Banchero led Duke with 20 points and seven rebounds, while Wendell Moore had a double-double of 12 points and 12 rebounds. All of just one player scored, but the Blue Devils also shot 28.6 percent from 3-point range.
"I know the main story will be about the last minute. But to me the story of the game was our turnovers," Krzyzewski said.
Duke’s roster is constructed around the star power of the youth, but it was Moore, the junior forward, led the Blue Devils with six turnovers; the starters combined for 15 of the 17 turnovers.
Clearly that tells us Duke is vulnerable. And against a Wake Forest team that is off to a 13-3 start and an 11-1 run to begin the season, this is going to be a tough matchup for Duke.
Wake Forest is coming off a 3-point win over Syracuse in overtime where Alondes Williams scored a game-high 25 points on 9 of 15 shooting to go along with 12 rebounds and was important for making two crucial free throws to have Wake Forest get the victory.
Isaiah Mucius even threw in 18 points for a Deacons club that won despite shooting 43.1 percent and only 11 of 37 from 3-point range.
Prediction
I normally don’t say take the road team away from home with a minimal spread, but this had to be ready to go. Duke is in need of a rebound after falling short, and I like them on the road here. Duke by 7
Betting trends
Duke is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 road games.
The over is 30-13 in Duke's last 43 conference games.
Wake Forest is 11-33 straight up as an underdog over the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Duke:
PG: Trevor Keels
SG: Jeremy Roach
SF: Wendell Moore Jr.
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams
SF: Wendell Moore Jr.
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams
Wake Forest:
PG: Daivien Williamson
SG: Alondes Williams
SF: Isaiah Mucius
PF: Jake LaRavia
C: Dallas Walton
SF: Isaiah Mucius
PF: Jake LaRavia
C: Dallas Walton
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
