by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 6, 2025
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Duke +3.5, Virginia -3.5; Over/Under: 57.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Duke +3.5, Virginia -3.5; Over/Under: 57.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Duke +3.5, Virginia -3.5; Over/Under: 57.5 points
Season Record
Duke Blue Devils: 7-5 (6-2) (6th place, ACC)
Virginia Cavaliers: 10-2 (7-1) (1st place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Duke Blue Devils: won their last game at home against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 49-32.
Virginia Cavaliers: won their last game at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies 27-7.
Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers Preview and Analysis
Duke is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Wake Forest 49-32. Darian Mensah was the starting QB and he completed 24/35 passes for 268 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Nate Sheppard led the team in rushing yards with 75 and 2 TDs. Cooper Barkate led the receivers with 83 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Luke Mergott led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Ma'khi Jones led the defense in sacks with 1. DaShawn Stone came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Virginia is entering this game with a 10-2 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Virginia Tech 27-7. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 21/35 passes for 182 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. J'Mari Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. Kameron Courtney led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Maddox Marcellus led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Maddox Marcellus, Daniel Rickert, Caleb Hardy, and Jason Hammond each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Maddox Marcellus and Antonio Clary each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Duke vs Virginia Prediction
The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked really good in their games this season with their 10-2 record overall and their 7-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. Meanwhile, Duke has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. Virginia was the best team in the ACC this year while Duke earned the right to play in this game through tiebreakers, but they are not the best 6-2 team in the ACC. Duke doesn't really deserve to play in this game with their 5 losses this season, and they lost some bad games to bad non-conference opponents. Virginia looked great for a lot of the season and ended up slipping up at home against Wake Forest after a string of bad performances, but that game was definitely a wake up call for them. They have looked a lot better since that loss with 2 wins in a row now, and they blew their opponents out in those 2 games. One of those wins was against Duke just 3 weeks ago and Virginia won that one 34-17 on the road. Virginia jumped on them early and the game was over by halftime with UVA taking a big lead and never looking back. Now Virginia has a chance to go to the CFP with a win here and they are going to once again show why they are the best team in the ACC. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game.
Duke Virginia Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 6, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Virginia 31 Duke 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Duke Blue Devils: 3-7 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 4-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 4-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 5-0 OVER off a home win by 17 points or more.
Virginia Cavaliers: 22-12 ATS in all lined games. 16-8 ATS against conference opponents. 13-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 4-0 OVER off a home win by 17 points or more.
Key Injuries
Duke Blue Devils: L. Callahan (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Anthony (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Morris Jr. (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Kutufaris (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Scott (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Sahakian (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Jones (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Moore (S) Questionable - Knee. V. Floyd (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Schaper (LB) Out - Undisclosed.
Virginia Cavaliers: T. Simmons (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Walker (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Jones (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Greene Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Robinson (LB) Out - Knee. N. Vaughn (RB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Thomas (WR) Out - Undisclosed. X. Brown (RB) Out - Knee. M. Thomas (OG) Out - Foot. G. Brosterhous (QB) Out - Foot. D. Twitty (TE) Out - Leg. J. Morris (CB) Out - Knee. M. Mills (OG) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“The game was about as we expected. I think kind of somewhat similar to our season. It was never going to be about perfection. It was going to be about persistence.” - Manny Diaz after his team’s win against Wake Forest in their last game.
“It's just confirmation of what's possible.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s win against VA Tech in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Duke Blue Devils
WR Hagans, Sahmir
WR Barkate, Cooper
WR Brown, Que'Sean
TE Hasley, Jeremiah
QB Mensah, Darian
RB Sheppard, Nate
Virginia Cavaliers
WR Edrine, Jahmal
WR Harris, Trell
WR Ross, Cam
TE Ennis, Sage
QB Morris, Chandler
RB Taylor, J'Mari
Statistical Leaders
Duke Blue Devils
Passing: Darian Mensah (3,450)
Rushing: Nate Sheppard (865)
Receiving: Cooper Barkate (978)
Touchdowns: Anderson Castle (11)
Virginia Cavaliers
Passing: Chandler Morris (2,586)
Rushing: J'Mari Taylor (997)
Receiving: Trell Harris (809)
Touchdowns: J'Mari Taylor (14)
Coaches:
Duke Blue Devils: Manny Diaz (2nd season)
Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
