Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Prediction & Game Preview - 2/23/2022

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Duke -4.5

BetMGM: Duke -4.5

Caesars: Duke -4.5

No. 7 Duke: 23-4 (13-3 ACC)

Virginia: 17-10 (11-6 ACC)

I would be very cautious if I were the Duke Blue Devils heading into Wednesday's matchup against the Virginia Cavaliers. We have to remember that it was only three weeks ago that Duke lost at home to Virginia by one point.

No I'm not saying Duke would blow it again a second time, especially since that loss Duke has rounded off four straight victories including an 18-point victory in their last game Saturday against the Florida State Seminoles, but if there's anything that we know about Virginia from past experiences it's that Virginia always tends to play above their competition to a level that we never really thought was possible.

In that win against Florida State, it was about as perfect of a victory as you could hope for Duke. All five starters scored in double figures led by Paolo Banchero’s 17 points and eight rebounds and Wendell Moore chipped in with 16 points, 5 rebounds, and seven assists.

I don't question the fact that Duke should actually win this game. They really should. Nor should I have any questions about Duke heading into the NCAA tournament because when all is said and done, this team should be at the top of the heap when it comes to teams ranked in the country.

I just question who is going to be the guy to take the big shots when needed when the game is on the line. And it might be a stupid thing to think of when it comes to Duke because they have so many talented players and so many worthwhile options, that it might not even be worth it to overthink it when the time comes and Duke is playing in the final four.

But I will be interested to see how they handle this game, especially how they lost two Virginia just a few weeks ago. Things can change in college basketball, as we've seen over the last few days and it's going to be a wild ride to the finish.

And while we're at it, trying to discount the Virginia Cavaliers when they've only won 17 games this season might not be the best course of action if you were a betting person.

And I think that just comes with the territory of having to watch Virginia over the past five seasons and realize that there was never any reason on this planet to count them out under any circumstances. Hell, you can look at that game against Duke and realize that they are not out of the woods just yet, and if they rally off maybe a couple of wins here and there in the conference tournament, all of a sudden we're in deja vu flashbacks to when they were winning the national championship.

Virginia has won five of its last six, and is coming off at three point victory on the road at the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday. That and if itself, given the fact that Miami has been such a consistent team all season long, is an impressive victory no matter the program.

Jayden Gardner was the leading scorer for Virginia for the 4th consecutive game, scoring 23 points in the impressive victory. 15 of those points came in the second half, as Virginia shot 49% in the quarter despite turning it over 11 times.

So long as Tony Bennett is continuing to beat the drum with this program, the Cavaliers are going to have a chance every time they take the floor. And it would not shock me in the least to see Virginia keeping things close with Duke and possibly, given the fact that the game is at home, pave the way for another potential upset.

Virginia is getting only four and a half points in some books, and I'm not entirely sure if that's enough for me to sway my decision toward the underdog. Would like to think that Duke has learned the error of its ways after that last game against Virginia, but in the grand scheme of things, Duke is just a much better team. Yet here I am thinking about how great of a run Virginia has been on over the past six games and I keep coming back to the fact that it is March, it is Tony Bennett, and there may not be a sneakier team going into the tournament than Virginia. So why not? Let it ride, and take the Cavaliers. Virginia by 3

The over is 51-30 in all of Duke's games the past three seasons.

Duke is 3-11 ATS following four straight games of 14 turnovers or less.

The under is 50-28 when Virginia is coming off a road win against a conference opponent.

PG: Jeremy Roach

SG: A.J. Griffin
SF: Wendell Moore
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams

PG: Kihei Clark

SG: Reece Beckman
SF: Armaan Franklin
PF: Jayden Gardner
C: Francisco Caffaro

Points: Paolo Banchero -- 16.9

Rebounds: Paolo Banchero -- 8.4

Assists: Wendell Moore Jr. -- 4.6

Points: Jayden Gardner -- 15.3

Rebounds: Jayden Gardner -- 7.1

Assists: Reece Beckman -- 5.0