Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 11/11/2023

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 11, 2023

Venue:  Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

Where to Watch:  ACC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Duke +14, UNC -14; Over/Under:  51 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Duke +14, UNC -14; Over/Under:  50.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Duke +14, UNC -14; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Duke Blue Devils:  6-3 (3-2) (6th place, ACC)

North Carolina Tar Heels:  7-2 (3-2) (4th place, ACC)

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Duke Blue Devils:  won their last game at home against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 24-21.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  won their last game at home against the Campbell Fighting Camels 59-7.

Duke is entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Wake Forest 24-21. Grayson Loftis was the starting QB and he completed 7/19 passes for 86 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jordan Waters led the team in rushing yards with 76 and 1 TD. Jordan Moore led the receivers with 43 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Tre Freeman led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Jaylen Stinson and Terry Moore each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ryan Smith came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

North Carolina is entering this game with a 7-2 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Campbell 59-7. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 16/23 passes for 244 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Omarion Hampton led the team in rushing yards with 144 and 2 TDs. Bryson Nesbit led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Cedric Gray led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Cedric Gray led the defense in sacks with 2. Marcus Allen came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have North Carolina listed as a 14 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. North Carolina looked really good at the start of the season with their 7-2 record overall but they have definitely been stumbling in conference play with their 3-2 conference record. They have been really good in their home games though with their 5-1 home record and after a nice get right game against Campbell last week, they will be looking to get back into this ACC Championship race. Duke has also looked really good this season with their 6-3 record overall and their 3-2 conference record but they haven't looked as good in their games lately without their starting QB Riley Leonard. They have also struggled more in their road games with their 1-2 road record this season and they don't have the offense with their backup QB to compete with the number of points UNC can put up at home. Duke does have a really good defense that will be keeping them in this game, but eventually the UNC offense will be too much for them and they will pull away on the scoreboard while Duke will have a tough time matching them offensively. The best way to place a bet here is on North Carolina to cover the spread in this game. 

Duke North Carolina Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 11, 2023 (8:00 pm ET start time) is UNC 35 Duke 14.

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Duke Blue Devils: 9-3 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. 13-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 52. 30-19 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 6-2 UNDER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

North Carolina Tar Heels: 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 22-42 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. 11-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 52. 28-13 UNDER after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Duke Blue Devils:  H. Belin IV (QB) Ques Sat - Upper Body. R. Leonard (QB) Out indefinitely - Toe. E. Pancol (WR) Out indefinitely - Lower Body.

North Carolina Tar Heels:  G. Pettaway (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. N. McCollum (WR) Ques Sat - Lower Body. C. Hood (RB) Ques Sat - Upper Body. R. Coe (PK) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. J. Cowan (DL) out for season - Upper Body. B. Kiernan (P) out for season - Lower Body. K. Paysour (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot. J. Randolph (TE) out for season - Lower Body.

“Hopefully this will put to bed all the talk about whether this team will respond.” - Mike Elko after his team’s win against Wake Forest in their last game. 

“I thought it was a perfect time and perfect game for us.” - Mack Brown after his team’s win against Campbell in their last game. 

WR Hagans, Sahmir  

WR Moore, Jordan

WR Calhoun, Jalon 

TE Dalmolin, Nicky 

QB Leonard, Riley 

RB Coleman, Jaylen

WR Walker, Devontez 

WR Jones, J.J.   

WR McCollum, Nate 

TE Copenhaver, John 

QB Maye, Drake 

RB Hampton, Omarion

Passing: R. Leonard (1102)

Rushing: J. Waters (564)

Receiving: J. Moore (483)

Touchdowns: J. Waters (10)

Passing: D. Maye (2803)

Rushing: O. Hampton (1067)

Receiving: J. Jones (499)

Touchdowns: O. Hampton (13)

Coaches:

Duke Blue Devils: Mike Elko (2nd season)

North Carolina Tar Heels: Mack Brown (5th season)