Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/06/2025

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 6, 2025

Venue:  Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Duke +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Duke +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Duke +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Duke Blue Devils:  9-0 (0-0) (1st place, ACC)

Michigan State Spartans:  8-0 (1-0) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Duke Blue Devils:  5-0  last 5

Michigan State Spartans:  5-0  last 5

Duke is entering this game with a 9-0 record overall, a 0-0 record in conference games, and they are 1-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Florida Gators in their last game. Cameron Boozer led the team in points in that game with 29 while Isaiah Evans was next on the team with 13. Patrick Ngongba II led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Cameron Boozer and Maliq Brown each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 44.6% from the field, 26.9% from 3-point range, and 62.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 89.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 59.6 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 6-3 this season and their O/U record is 1-8.

Michigan State is entering this game with an 8-0 record overall, a 1-0 conference record, and they are 5-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Iowa Hawkeyes in their last game. Coen Carr led the team in points in that game with 15 while Jeremy Fears Jr. was next on the team with 14. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Jaxon Kohler led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 50% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 88% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 60.4 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 5-3 this season and their O/U record is 2-6.

The current betting odds have Duke listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Duke has looked great in their games this season with their 9-0 record overall which has them right at the top of the ACC. They are 1-0 in their road games this season too and they are ranked inside the top 5 teams in the nation. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked great in their games this season with their 8-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have also looked great on their home court this year with their 5-0 home record. Michigan State is off a win over Iowa in their last one and that game wasn't even close. They have multiple wins against ranked opponents under their belt and they have been rolling over those teams all year. They do have a big advantage being at home for this game, especially since Duke hasn't really been tested on the road yet, but Duke still has a lot more talent. Duke has been rolling in their games too, picking up multiple wins against ranked opponents this year and they have been blowing out those teams too. They are off a 1 point win over Florida in their last one and they really struggled on their own home court, but Florida did win the National Championship last season and has a ton of talent on their team. That win is going to give Duke a ton of momentum going forward and they are still the more talented team here with Michigan State really overperforming to start the season. The best way to place a bet here is on Duke to cover the spread in this game. 

Duke Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, December 6, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Duke 77 Michigan State 74.

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Duke Blue Devils: 3-6 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. 4-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders. 4-8 1H ATS in December games. 24-15 UNDER in non-conference games. 8-4 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive unders. 18-9 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

Michigan State Spartans: 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 17-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 10-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 52-28 UNDER in all games. 27-12 UNDER as a home favorite or pick.

Duke Blue Devils:  S. Wilkins (G-F) Out - Redshirt.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Ward (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Glenn (F) Out - Knee.

“Our guys just battled. Hopefully we can score better in some other games, but you’ve gotta win that way sometimes, and I thought our guys made big time winning plays.” - Jon Scheyer after his team’s win against Florida in their last game. 

"It's been an incredible month of basketball for us, as far as not any travel, teams we've played and how it's gone. We need a little practice to get better, and I got to do a better job with those guys. That's all me." - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against Iowa in their last game. 

C. Boozer 

I. Evans 

C. Foster 

P. Ngongba 

D. Sarr

C. Carr 

C. Cooper 

J. Fears 

T. Fort 

J. Kohler

PPG: Cameron Boozer (23.6)

APG: Cameron Boozer (3.7)

Reb/G: Cameron Boozer (9.3)

PPG: Jaxon Kohler (14.3)

APG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.4)

Reb/G: Jaxon Kohler (9.9)

Coaches:

Duke Blue Devils: Jon Scheyer (4th season)

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (31st season)