by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jan 17, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL
Season record
No. 6 Duke: 14-2 (4-1 ACC)
Florida State: 10-5 (4-2 ACC)
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Duke - Florida State preview, analysis and prediction
The Duke Blue Devils have rebounded well the past two games, and I expect them to keep things going against the Florida State Seminoles on Tuesday.
How you play this game is entirely up to you. Duke has dominated the series since 2013, winning nine of the last 10 with the only loss coming Jan. 10, 2017 in a 16-point home victory for Florida State.
As far as the books are concerned, though, the Seminoles have covered five of the last six including the last meeting on Feb. 10, 2020 as 7.5-point underdogs in a 5-point loss at Cameron Indoor. It almost feels weird that this is the first time since that meeting that the ACC rivals have met.
Duke is coming off an 88-73 win at home against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. It was the Blue Devils’ first game back at home since losing 76-74 to the unranked Miami Hurricanes on Jan. 8.
Paolo Banchero had a game-high 21 points and eight rebounds, and Mark Williams posted a double-double of 19 points and 11 rebounds. The big man also contributed eight of Duke’s 10 blocks, anchoring the defense that held NC State to just 41.3 percent shooting.
"That's an NBA frontcourt — you're talking about a 7-1 guy and a 6-10 guy who both are good at what they do," Wolfpack coach Kevin Keatts said of Banchero and Williams. "And they just completely dominated us at the 4 and the 5 (positions)."
You can never keep Florida State down when it comes to a matchup with Duke. Even though the Seminoles are a ho-hum 10-5 and off to a 4-2 start in conference play, the ‘Noles tend to play up to their competition whenever Duke comes to town. Even if it’s resulted in losses over the past few years, Florida State tends to play it close.
The Seminoles are on a three-game winning streak after dispatching of the Syracuse Orange on Saturday, 76-71 in the Carrier Dome. FSU was led by Caleb Mills’ team-high 19 points while going 5 of 6 from 3-point range; Rayquan Evans chipped in with 15 points.
Despite going 5-1 in their last six, the ‘Noles are just 3-3 against the spread in those six and are 2-8 ATS overall in the last 10. That’s why it’s so hard to pick this game from a spread perspective; Florida State could literally have the worst game of its season but still find ways to keep things close with Duke.
But the four points Duke is laying should be a good enough number to be confident in. Duke is 7-11 ATS in its last 18 January games, but I still trust Duke to get it done. Duke by 8
Betting trends
Duke is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Duke is 4-1 ATS following an ATS win in its last five.
Duke is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 Tuesday games.
Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against teams with a winning record.
Florida State is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 following an ATS win.
Projected starting lineup
Duke:
PG: Trevor Keels
SG: Jeremy Roach
SF: Wendell Moore Jr.
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams
SF: Wendell Moore Jr.
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Mark Williams
Florida State:
PG: Rayquan Evans
SG: Caleb Mills
SF: Anthony Polite
PF: Malik Osborne
C: John Butler
SF: Anthony Polite
PF: Malik Osborne
C: John Butler
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
