Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/05/2024

Game Time: 1:08 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers +130, Guardians -155; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers +125, Guardians -150; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers +125, Guardians -150; Over/Under:  7 runs

Detroit Tigers:  86-76 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  92-69 (1st place, AL Central)

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Detroit Tigers:  8-2 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  5-5 last 10

The Tigers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep 2-0 in their best 2 out of 3 game series against the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 86-76 record overall and had a road record of 43-38. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Guardians on Saturday for the American League Division Series. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .685 OPS. Tyler Holton was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Tyler Holton is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 1 K on 0 hits through 1 IP against the Houston Astros.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the Houston Astros 2-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 92-69 record overall and had a home record of 50-30. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Tigers on Saturday for the ALDS. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .702 OPS. Ben Lively was their starting pitcher on Saturday while Tanner Bibee is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 7 strikeouts on 4 hits through 7 innings played against the Cincinnati Reds.

The current betting odds have the Tigers listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Tigers finished the regular season with an 86-76 record overall which got them into the playoffs through the Wild Card and they are also 43-38 in their road games. They just knocked the Houston Astros out of the playoffs in the Wild Card Round, winning both games in Houston. Meanwhile, the Guardians finished the regular season with a 92-69 record overall which won them the AL Central, and they are also 50-30 in their home games. They didn't end the regular season on a good note though, losing their 2 games against the Astros in their final series, and now they have had a week off of rest. The Guardians have looked great at home all season, but neither team has really had a good offense this year and that longer rest could hurt the Guardians more in this game. The Tigers also have an advantage with the pitching matchup since they are going with Holton on the mound, and that means this is a bullpen game for them, the Tigers having one of the best bullpens in the MLB. Bibee is on the mound for the Guardians and he is 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and the team has won 2 games in a row with him starting. The Guardians also have a great bullpen to help him out so this is going to be a game with some really good pitching, but that favors the Tigers with the momentum from their Wild Card Series win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Tigers to win this game. 

Tigers Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (1:08 pm ET start time) is Tigers 2 Guardians 0.

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Detroit Tigers: 17-28 (-4.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +125 to +175. 19-26 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 20-28 (-4.6 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 29-22 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

Cleveland Guardians: 92-68 (+15.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 62-32 (+15.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 50-29 (+10.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 24-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 39-29 UNDER when playing against a team  with a winning record.

Detroit Tigers:  T. Skubal (SP) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Faedo (SP) Sixty Day IL - Personal. J. Baez (SS) Sixty Day IL - Hip. S. Gipson-Long (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  A. Cobb (SP) Undefined - Finger. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Karinchak (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Our city is built on grit. That’s what it is. I remember saying that I wanted to have a team that this city is proud of. I think the city is pretty proud of what we’re doing and how we’re doing it and the fight that this team shows.” - A.J. Hinch after his team’s win against the Astros in game 2 of their Wild Card Series on Wednesday.

“It’s been an unbelievable year to watch Josey, so much fun. It will be fun to see what happens tomorrow.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Saturday which ended up being their regular season finale.

Parker Meadows (L) CF

Kerry Carpenter (L) DH

Matt Vierling (R) RF

Riley Greene (L) LF

Colt Keith (L) 2B

Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B

Zach McKinstry (L) 3B

Trey Sweeney (L) SS

Jake Rogers (R) C

Will Brennan (L) LF

Kyle Manzardo (L) 1B

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) DH

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Andrés Giménez (L) 2B

Bo Naylor (L) C

Jhonkensy Noel (R) RF

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Kerry Carpenter (.284)

Hits:  Riley Greene (134)

Home Runs:  Riley Greene (24)

RBI:  Riley Greene (74)

Stolen Bases:  Zach McKinstry (16)

Wins:  Tarik Skubal (18)

Saves:  Jason Foley (28)

ERA:  Jackson Jobe (0.00)

Batting Average:  Steven Kwan (.292)

Hits:  José Ramírez (173)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (39)

RBI:  José Ramírez (118)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (41)

Wins:  Ben Lively (13)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (47)

ERA:  Shane Bieber (0.00)

Managers:

Detroit Tigers: A.J. Hinch (4th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)