Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2025

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 4, 2025

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, FDSD, WKYC, CLEGUARDIANS.tv 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -115, Guardians -105; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -115, Guardians -105; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Tigers -115, Guardians -105; Over/Under:  8 runs

Detroit Tigers:  54-33 (1st place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  40-44 (3rd place, AL Central)

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Detroit Tigers:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  3-7 last 10

The Tigers won their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1. They enter this game with a 54-33 record overall and have a road record of 24-19. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Guardians on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Washington Nationals still to be played on Thursday. The Tigers won the series opener of that series on Wednesday and lost the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .755 OPS. Dietrich Enns is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Reese Olson is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 SO on 1 hit through 6 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Guardians got swept in their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 3-0. They enter this game with a 40-44 record overall and have a home record of 20-20. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Tigers on Friday with the 3rd game of their series against the Chicago Cubs still to be played on Thursday. The Guardians lost the 1st game of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .662 OPS. Joey Cantillo is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Slade Cecconi is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Tigers listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Tigers have looked great in their games this season with their 54-33 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL Central with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also been a good road team with their 24-19 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians haven't looked good in their games this season with their 40-44 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They haven't been great in their own ballpark either with their 20-20 home record this season. The Tigers are coming into this series as the much hotter team lately too, the Tigers going 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Guardians are only 3-7. Cecconi is on the mound for the Guardians in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA and the team has won 2 of the last 3 games he started in. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start though and that could get the team into trouble here since the Guardians have one of the worst offenses in the entire MLB. The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the MLB so they have a big advantage in that area, and their pitching staff has also been a lot better all season, both their starters and their bullpen. The best way to place a bet here is on the Tigers to win this game. 

Tigers Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 4, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Tigers 6 Guardians 1.

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Detroit Tigers: 221-196 (+38.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 110-99 (+31.3 units) on the moneyline in road games. 165-154 (+21 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 40-31 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

Cleveland Guardians: 212-204 (-6.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 97-112 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 53-71 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 23-11 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%).

Detroit Tigers:  S. Gipson-Long (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. K. Carpenter (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Jobe (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. J. Foley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Cobb (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Olson (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. T. Madden (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Urquidy (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Lange (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Cleveland Guardians:  G. Arias (SS) Ten Day IL - Ankle. W. Brennan (RF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. A. Walters (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Lively (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. P. Sewald (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Means (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

"In-between games we had some time so I got the news. I knew it wasn't going to come out until 7 p.m., but we could have a private moment with our team and celebrate them. Not only is it good for our organization, our team, the players individually -- but they earned it. We have popular players, but we also have guys that have performed very well and I think the list is going to grow over the next week." - A.J. Hinch after his team’s double-header against the Nationals on Wednesday.

“He’s the best all-around third baseman in baseball. He's one of the top five players, in my opinion. Hosey exemplifies what it means to be a professional baseball player on the field, and he plays the game the right way. I'm just thankful I get to watch him do it every day.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Cubs in their game on Wednesday.

Justyn-Henry Malloy (R) DH

Gleyber Torres (R) 2B

Jahmai Jones (R) LF

Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B

Matt Vierling (R) CF

Wenceel Pérez (S) RF

Dillon Dingler (R) C

Javier Báez (R) SS

Zach McKinstry (L) 3B

Steven Kwan (L) LF

David Fry (R) DH

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Lane Thomas (R) CF

Nolan Jones (L) RF

Angel Martínez (S) 2B

Austin Hedges (R) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Brewer Hicklen (.667)

Hits:  Riley Greene (97)

Home Runs:  Riley Greene (21)

RBI:  Riley Greene (69)

Stolen Bases:  Zach McKinstry (10)

Wins:  Tarik Skubal (10)

Saves:  Will Vest (13)

ERA:  Matt Gage (0.00)

Batting Average:  José Ramírez (.301)

Hits:  José Ramírez (92)

Home Runs:  José Ramírez (13)

RBI:  José Ramírez (38)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (21)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (5)

Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (18)

ERA:  Nic Enright (2.08)

Managers:

Detroit Tigers: A.J. Hinch (5th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (2nd season)