Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/12/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 12, 2026

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Red Wings +180, Lightning -218; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Red Wings +180, Lightning -225; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Red Wings +180, Lightning -225; Over/Under:  6 goals

Detroit Red Wings:  36-22-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  39-20-4 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Detroit Red Wings:  4-5-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-6-0 last 10

The Red Wings are entering this game with 79 points, a 36-22-7 record overall, and they are 18-11-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one on the road 4-3. Justin Faulk, Marco Kasper, and Patrick Kane each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Justin Faulk, Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp, Emmitt Finnie, and Moritz Seider each led the team in assists with 1 while Marco Kasper led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. John Gibson was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 28 shots with 24 saves and a .857 save percentage. Their offense has scored 192 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 194 goals against them allowing 3 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 82 points, a 39-20-4 record overall, and they are 19-11-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Columbus Blue Jackets in their last game, losing that one at home 5-2. Gage Goncalves and Janis Moser each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman each led the team in assists with 1 while Charle-Edouard D'Astous led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 30 shots with 26 saves and a .867 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 225 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 177 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 39-20-4 record overall which has them right near the top of their division in the East. They have looked good on home ice too with their 19-11-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have looked good in their games this season with their 36-22-7 record overall which has them in the top half of their division in the East. They have been a good road team too with their 18-11-4 road record this year. These two have been some of the best teams in the East this season, but lately they have slipped into a funk and haven't looked good. The Lightning are 4-6-0 in their last 10 games and they have lost 2 games in a row now. They are off a 5-2 loss at home to the Blue Jackets in their last one, but that loss also came right after a tiring 8-7 game against the Sabres on the road which they lost. Now they have lost 2 games in a row though and they will be looking to bounce back on their home ice where they have looked so good this season. The Red Wings have also had a lot of trouble lately as they are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and they are off a 4-3 loss to the Panthers in their last one. They were hot out of the Olympic Break, but they have cooled off now and the Lightning can take advantage of that as they look to bounce back. The Lightning have still been the steadier team this season and they have the much better goaltending too with the number of goals that the Red Wings have been giving up this year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game and on the puckline. 

Red Wings Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, March 12, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Red Wings 1.

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Detroit Red Wings: 116-113 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 64-78 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog. 40-31 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 28-19 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 133-104 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-68 (-5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite. 126-98 (-6.4 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 17-9 OVER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

Detroit Red Wings:  A. Copp (C) Day To Day - Lower Body. D. Larkin (C) Day To Day - Leg. D. Perron (LW) Out - Groin.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  E. Cernak (D) Day To Day - Undisclosed. E. Lilleberg (D) Out - Face. N. Paul (LW) Out - Undisclosed. D. James (C) Out - Leg. M. Crozier (D) Out - Abdomen.

“We have a job to do and the first thing we have to do is recover from this loss. Then we have to figure out how to plug some holes. It’s another (game) where, at least, we should be leaving with a point. But we’re not. That’s a tough one to swallow.” - Todd McLellan after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their game on Tuesday.

"It's been hard on guys with all these games left and you don't get to practice...tonight was abnormally bad. I don't know what happened. It was a tough one. When you play a lot of games in this League you've got to work your way through it. This little rut we're in has lasted a lot longer than I anticipated." - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Blue Jackets in their game on Tuesday.

LW Alex Debrincat

C Andrew Copp

RW Patrick Kane

LD Simon Edvinsson

RD Moritz Seider

G John Gibson

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Gage Goncalves

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Declan Carlile

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: Lucas Raymond (65)

Goals: Alex DeBrincat (33)

Assists: Lucas Raymond (45)

GAA: John Gibson (2.56)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (104)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (34)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (70)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.32)

Coaches:

Detroit Red Wings: Todd McLellan (2nd season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)