Game Time: 6:30 PM ET, Tuesday, March 15th, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Miami -12.5; O/U 216

Fanduel:  Spread:  Miami -12.5; O/U 216.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Miami -12.5; O/U 216.5

Pistons: 18-50, 14th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 45-25, 1st place Eastern Conference

An NBA Eastern Conference matchup between the best… and the almost worst.  It’s a matter of how you see basketball.  The Miami Heat have the talent and are trying to win now.  The Detroit Pistons have a little talent spread out amongst young players and are covering spreads and occasionally winning lately. The covering the spread part is where we have to look closely.  Great betting opportunities are usually where you know one team will blow out the other and Vagas has given you a favorable spread.  In this matchup the Heat will win… but the Pistons have been covering spreads like Pete Davidson has been covering Kanye West's ex-wife.  It has really been fantastic. The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last ten games… who cares what they won… this is a bad team looking for the #1 pick to pair PG Cade Cunningham with a running mate if not a true leader.  The Heat on the other hand are 7-3 ATS over their last ten games… It’s really a game of chicken between the sportsbooks and two teams that are great at winning bets.  The fact that they both LOST their last game and against the spread, throws a monkey wrench in the numbers the BOOKS are pouring over today.  The Pistons finally did not win ATS versus the Clippers… they also didn;t win the game.  The Heat did not win against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game and lost ATS.  So both these teams cover spreads?... what do we do?... Look at the numbers!   The numbers will tell you who to put $$$ on.   AND BTW if you aren’t putting $100 bucks on every NBA game you will never know the joy of winning 64.5% and cashing each and every year.  The other great thing is to wait for one game you are certain on and dropping $1000 on that game alone (except you want to avoid taxes if you are at a boom which means spreading the $1000 over three books).   OK let’s look at the numbers… and start thinking about the bankroll over what p[layers you might like because you saw them in college or you live in the city (this is a big problem in gambling… don’t avoid the numbers).

The Detroit Pistons have won 5 of their last ten games.  It is the best ten game stretch of the Pistons season.  They went 9-1 ATS during that stretch.. So you know they are in full bloom as a young team ready to compete. Their front office wants this shit to stop! I promise.  The front office has been salivating over a #1 pick all season… If the cubs ruin it… the future is bleak (according to Detroit management).  By contrast in Orlando and Oklahoma City the teams have taken to starting back-up shooting guards at the forward positions to ensure that there is not a defense to stop the other team no matter what the offense does. In Detroit the leading scorer Jerami Grant survived the Pistons offering him to EVERYONE else in the league.  The Pistons don’t want him and he is their best scorer.  Rookie PG Cade Cunningham is the future.. It is obvious.  Cade is talented and he was given control of the team very early.  Cade is not LeBron.  Cade has a lot to learn.  Cade is no Scottie Barnes.  The team added Marvin Bagley III from Sacramento during a bigger deal at the trade deadline.  Marvin excelled immediately!  The team will be looking to pair Cade, Marvin, and second year player SF Saddiq Bey with whomever they draft.  

The Miami Heat have won 7 of their last ten games.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  The team is almost perfect.  They have great scorers and defenders in SF Jimmy Butler and PF/C Bam Adebayo… they are backed by a deep team of talent that features great shooters off the bench.  Defense AND Offense is a potent combination. The Heat have it all… except the best record in the NBA which belongs to the Western Conference Phoenix Suns,  the reason is that the Heat's scorers are not the best scorers.  Still depth will be measured when the final tally is accounted for… I guarantee you.. And the Heat have depth.  The Heat injury list has withheld SG Victor Oladipo for almost the whole season… he could help on the scoring. The Heat injury list might withhold SF Jimmy Butler at game time… which makes a big difference.  Still the Heat have so much more than the Pistons.  The Heat seem like a betting opportunity that needs the point spread to add some clarity.

Fresh off a PERFECT 6-0 NBA weekend, Sean is absolutely, positively ON FIRE in the Association right now, riding an INCREDIBLE 30-11 NBA run! He makes it SEVEN STRAIGHT winners with his 10* Underdog Game of the Week on Monday; this is one play you simply can't afford to miss! Get Sean Murphy's picks!   You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Pistons are 18-50 on the season, but 36-32 ATS.  They have logged 32 Overs, 33 Unders, and 3 Push.  They are 7-27 in road games.

The Heat are 45-24 on the season, but 40-28-1 ATS.  They have been a good betting opportunity all season.  They have notched 40 Overs and 29 Unders. They are a dominant 24-9 in home games.

The Pistons are 29th in scoring with 103.6 ppg, 27th in rebounds with 43.1 per game, and 26th in AST/To ratio with 1.6 .  On defense they rank 23rd while allowing 112.4 ppg.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 109.4 ppg, 16th in rebounds with 44.4 per game, and 16th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 104.8 ppg.

Our prediction for Tuesday, March 15th is…. Heat 118 - Pistons 107

The Heat will roll the kids from Detroit.

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Detroit is 2-0 ATS versus Miami at Miami the last 3 seasons.
All 5 of 7 games these teams have played each other have gone Over the last 3 seasons.
Miami is 55-48 ATS versus Indiana since 1996.

Pistons: PG Killian Hayes (thigh) Quest ** SG Rodney McGruder (hammy) Quest ** PG Hamidou Diallo (finger) Quest ** PG Frank Jackson (back) Quest ** PF Isaiah Stewart (knee) Out

Heat: SF Caleb Martin (knee) Out ** SF Jimmy Butler (toe) probable ** SG Victor Oladipo Out 

Pistons: PF Jerami Grant, SF Saddiq Bey, C Marvin Bagley III, PG Cade Cunningham, SG Cory Joseph

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Duncan Robinson, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gabe Vincent, PG Kyle Lowry

Pistons

Points: Jerami Grant 19.0

Assists: Cade Cunningham 5.3’

Rebounds: Isaiah Stewart 8.5

Steals: Hamidou Diallo 1.2

Blocks: Isaiah Stewart 1.1

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.4

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.9

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.4

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.8

Blocks: Bam Adebayo 0.8