by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 12, 2023
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 15, 2023
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Lions -3, Buccaneers +3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Lions -3, Buccaneers +3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Lions -3, Buccaneers +3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Detroit Lions: 4-1 (1st place, NFC North)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-1 (1st place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Detroit Lions: won their last game at home against the Carolina Panthers 42-24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won their last game on the road against the New Orleans Saints 26-9.
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Lions are entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 42-24. Jared Goff was the starting QB and he completed 20/28 passes for 236 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. David Montgomery led the team in rushing yards with 109 and 1 TD. Josh Reynolds led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Alex Anzalone led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Aidan Hutchinson led the defense in sacks with 1. Jerry Jacobs and Aidan Hutchinson each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints 26-9. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 25/32 passes for 246 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Rachaad White led the team in rushing yards with 56. Chris Godwin led the receivers with 114 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Antoine Winfield Jr. led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Vita Vea led the defense in sacks with 2. Dee Delaney came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Lions vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have been great this season with their 3-1 record overall and they are coming off their bye in this game too. The Lions have also been really good this year with their 4-1 record overall and they are coming off a big win against the Panthers in their last game. The Panthers are also the only winless team left in the NFL though and the Lions haven't played many teams in the top half of the NFL this season. The Bucs still have a really good team on both sides of the ball and they are going to be very prepared here with the extra time they have had to rest for this game. The Lions have been really good but their defense is still giving up a lot of points and Baker Mayfield will be able to move the ball on this defense. The Buccaneers also have the home advantage here and they are a live underdog to win this game outright at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Lions Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 15, 2023 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 23 Lions 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
Detroit Lions: 27-12 ATS in all games. 20-8 ATS against conference opponents. 14-4 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 5-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. 5-2 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive overs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 1-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders. 13-6 UNDER off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. 14-8 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Key Injuries
Detroit Lions: J. Cabinda (FB) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Dorsey (CB) Ques Sun - Illness. T. Decker (OT) Ques Sun - Ankle. J. Mitchell (TE) Ques Sun - Hamstring. Z. Knight (RB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Jackson (G) Ques Sun - Ankle. J. Okwara (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. B. Branch (DB) Ques Sun - Ankle. A. St. Brown (WR) Ques Sun - Abdominal. J. Gibbs (RB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. E. Moseley (CB) out for season - Knee. M. Nelson (OT) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Houston (LB) Mid Nov - Ankle. C. Gardner-Johnson (DB) I-R - Pectoral. J. Paschal (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. N. Sudfeld (QB) I-R - Knee. S. Zylstra (TE) I-R - Knee. H. Hooker (QB) Out indefinitely - Knee.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: D. Pitts (CB) Prob Sun - Hamstring. C. Kancey (DL) Prob Sun - Calf. S. Dennis (LB) Prob Sun - Hamstring. J. Dean (CB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. L. Goedeke (G) Ques Sun - Calf. M. Evans (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. R. Neal (S) Ques Sun - Concussion. C. Edmonds (RB) Early Nov - Knee. R. Jensen (C) I-R - Knee. R. Gage (WR) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“These guys who have been asked to step up are making plays. We’re not getting any drop-off." - Dan Campbell after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
“It shows the accountability in our building and not letting the outside noise affect us. Right now, the narrative is going to flip — and we have to keep that mindset even more so. You can’t change whether people are patting you on the back or talking trash.” - Baker Mayfield after their win against the Saints in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Detroit Lions
WR Reynolds, Josh
WR Williams, Jameson
WR St. Brown, Amon-Ra
TE LaPorta, Sam
QB Goff, Jared
RB Montgomery, David
FB Daniels, Darrell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR EVANS, MIKE
WR Godwin, Chris
WR Palmer, Trey
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Statistical Leaders
Detroit Lions
Passing: J. Goff (1265)
Rushing: D. Montgomery (371)
Receiving: A. St. Brown (331)
Touchdowns: D. Montgomery (6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (882)
Rushing: R. White (206)
Receiving: M. Evans (337)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (3)
Coaches:
Detroit Lions: Dan Campbell (3rd season)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
